Smart Money's Swing Trades Thru T.A.

Yeesh. Rattlesnake in the pasture. Surprise bad numbers.

We could shake this off later in the day, but to be conservative, I'd sell every pick here because they are all high in the range. Ford is down in the premarket but because it is in the middle of the range it could come back.

We're dropping in pre-market and will gap down on most everything. It's too early to predict the severity of it.

Be first to sell and wait until the stampede is over.

Anyone who says they saw this coming is a liar...this is part of trading.

SM
 
BTW, TZA could go to $8 today. It's a short leveraged ETF fund. I'd try to purchase that quick...possibly first. It should help buffer losses.
 
Quote from Smart Money:

BTW, TZA could go to $8 today. It's a short leveraged ETF fund. I'd try to purchase that quick...possibly first. It should help buffer losses.
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Know that TZA is up to like $7.60...It may actually fall after opening bell, but should eventually get to $8. Yeah...my "free" opinions.

SM
 
Quote from Smart Money:

Thanks. I think we'll see a continuation of the rally on Friday, though not as strong. So I think all my long positions will meet projections. We'll see that reflected in morning futures if I'm correct on that.

My time horizon is like 3 to 5 day swing trades and each day that goes on I push my luck that we won't have a reversal. So my advice on your stock is with the understanding that you are a trader and not a buy and hold guy.

If I owned VIRL, I'd be happy as hell, but I'd be the first person in line to sell it on Friday. It overshot it's range. Now...if there was some kind of new invention, like a perpetual motion machine, it could be warranted. But it is out of the tippy top of it's range for normalcy, and I see it yo-yoing tomorrow before it settles at around $11 because that is the top of it's reasonably normal range.

SAM is running out of gas in the very short run. If we rally tomorrow, I can see it going no higher than $69, but I'm pretty confident that by late next week you could buy it cheaper than if you sold it tomorrow. Again, it has a little more room to run, but it's about to bump it's head and then it will go back down.

GIL might reach $32 if you're lucky before reversing. The advice I just gave for SAM pretty much applies to it. Again...this is for a 3 to 5 day time horizon. This time next year, both stocks could be double what they are today for all I know.

SM
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VIRL = sold at 10:00 (replaced it with DECK)
GIL = losing momentum today. Tightened stop looking for an exit.

Your target on NFLX was attained @ $120
 
Quote from LEAPup:

VIRL = sold at 10:00 (replaced it with DECK)
GIL = losing momentum today. Tightened stop looking for an exit.

Your target on NFLX was attained @ $120
More...

Interesting. I was looking at other timeframes, and what I'm seeing is we're reaching a decision making point, which is why I've been so panicky.

I'm surprised that the market shook off the bad news with the good news this morning. Net effect is that I shouldn't have paniced...but hindsight is 20/20 and everything we were looking at was so high in it's cycle that it was the prudent thing to do...or at least tighten stops.

Anyway, we're at a decision making point. The odds favor us bouncing back down to the downside relatively sudden.

I said I wasn't going to show graphs, but I've stripped one down to make a point:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=12&id=p22478647796

This is my favorite ETF, which mirrors the market. For all practical purposes, this is a graph of market behavior. See how price is coming up against the midline? Price action loves to bounce off that midline. It usually does bounce off it. But when it doesn't...when it pushes through...it needs to push through solidly. For example, attempts to push through only work when price action moves at least half again as much toward the other side. Until it gets more than half way through to the upper band, I'm skeptical.

This was one of the reasons why I was fairly sure we were going up yesterday...because we were well on our way to the mid-line and my targets were based on it and other graphs.

But now we're where we might bounce. So we're at a decision making point that puts me in "wait and see" mode. The odds favor that we'll bounce back down, so I'd be lightening up on every long position THAT IS AFFECTED BY A DOWNDRAFT until I had confirmation that we were truly going to sustain movement across the middle line (red line)....until we were well across it. That means that you'll miss out on potential profit as it moves out, but you won't get whipsawed either. We may see another whipsaw that will make today's looks small very soon.

VIRL's sideways movement is putting it into the realm of acceptability. But I'd have sold it too if I held it. GIL was a definite sell. DECK looks like one of those stocks that follows the market nicely. It looks good, but how will if fare in a downdraft?

SM
 
Quote from Smart Money:

To recap, last night I said:

1. Markets will be up
2. WNC to $6.90 in a few days
3. ZSL to $37 in a few days
4. F to $11.60 in a few days
5. NFLX to $120 in a few days
6. TNA to $41 in a few days

I'll post a "report card" and keep a running percentage here.

SM
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OK, my report card. First of all...I got whipsawed today, so I recommended selling stuff before it made it's goal, even though some eventually did.

So, I did predict up markets 1 out of 1 (1/1)

WNC did reach $6.90 before I said sell, so (1/1)

ZSL has not reached $37 and in fact, I recommended selling it for a loss as a precaution (0/1)

Ford hasn't yet reached $11.60 (it might), but I recommended selling all longs this morning. However, the sale would have been a profit, so lets say (0.5/1)

NFLX got within 15 cents of goal yesterday, and has since hit the target, but I still said sell this morning (for a decent profit), so let's say (0.5/1)

TNA reached $41, and I then revised the target to $42 and it got that too. I think I should get extra credit...so lets say (1.2/1)

Total points...4.2 out of 6 or 70%

At this point, because of where the markets are, I don't want to recommend anything until I see where we are on Tuesday or so. If that changes, I'll let you know.

SM
 
bp, can you post a chart with the es mp like u did a few days back,i'ld like to see where the preceding days nips were
 
Quote from Smart Money:

Interesting. I was looking at other timeframes, and what I'm seeing is we're reaching a decision making point, which is why I've been so panicky.

I'm surprised that the market shook off the bad news with the good news this morning. Net effect is that I shouldn't have paniced...but hindsight is 20/20 and everything we were looking at was so high in it's cycle that it was the prudent thing to do...or at least tighten stops.

Anyway, we're at a decision making point. The odds favor us bouncing back down to the downside relatively sudden.

I said I wasn't going to show graphs, but I've stripped one down to make a point:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=12&id=p22478647796

This is my favorite ETF, which mirrors the market. For all practical purposes, this is a graph of market behavior. See how price is coming up against the midline? Price action loves to bounce off that midline. It usually does bounce off it. But when it doesn't...when it pushes through...it needs to push through solidly. For example, attempts to push through only work when price action moves at least half again as much toward the other side. Until it gets more than half way through to the upper band, I'm skeptical.

This was one of the reasons why I was fairly sure we were going up yesterday...because we were well on our way to the mid-line and my targets were based on it and other graphs.

But now we're where we might bounce. So we're at a decision making point that puts me in "wait and see" mode. The odds favor that we'll bounce back down, so I'd be lightening up on every long position THAT IS AFFECTED BY A DOWNDRAFT until I had confirmation that we were truly going to sustain movement across the middle line (red line)....until we were well across it. That means that you'll miss out on potential profit as it moves out, but you won't get whipsawed either. We may see another whipsaw that will make today's looks small very soon.

VIRL's sideways movement is putting it into the realm of acceptability. But I'd have sold it too if I held it. GIL was a definite sell. DECK looks like one of those stocks that follows the market nicely. It looks good, but how will if fare in a downdraft?

SM
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Agreed. The markets really didn't know what they wanted to do this week. I'll have to say, I have closed out of my contra ETF's, and am going to be going long several picks IF the markets break higher next week.

If not, I hold the few longs I have left, selling what isn't moving up, and tightening stops more, looking for an exit.

Looks like we have a very strong shot at breaking to the upside in a KR. The million $ question is of course, when... I have no clue. Wouldn't want to speculate. However, out of around 9,200 equities scanned, their average price did increase this week .76% A welcome change from the start of May-now. Lol!

The trend still is down, but what I'm seeing is a possible KR. Love to see it! If not, and we move lower next week, I'll be prepared to buy some more contra ETF's.
 
Quote from Smart Money:

OK, my report card. First of all...I got whipsawed today, so I recommended selling stuff before it made it's goal, even though some eventually did.

So, I did predict up markets 1 out of 1 (1/1)

WNC did reach $6.90 before I said sell, so (1/1)

ZSL has not reached $37 and in fact, I recommended selling it for a loss as a precaution (0/1)

Ford hasn't yet reached $11.60 (it might), but I recommended selling all longs this morning. However, the sale would have been a profit, so lets say (0.5/1)

NFLX got within 15 cents of goal yesterday, and has since hit the target, but I still said sell this morning (for a decent profit), so let's say (0.5/1)

TNA reached $41, and I then revised the target to $42 and it got that too. I think I should get extra credit...so lets say (1.2/1)

Total points...4.2 out of 6 or 70%

At this point, because of where the markets are, I don't want to recommend anything until I see where we are on Tuesday or so. If that changes, I'll let you know.

SM
More...

Good job on the trades!
 
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