Smart Money's Swing Trades Thru T.A.

I'm baaaaa-aaaack.

I took a break because life got in the way, and then I was looking at a stock that I bought for the dividends and I noticed something in the charts that I've never seen before. A new method. Probably not a Holy Grail, but it sure seems to work well. Soo....I've been playing a bit and it seems to be working.

Want a second opinion on a swing trade stock? Send me the ticker and I'll tell you whether I'd play it myself.

SM
 
bought AVH at 6.76. Nice trend, large dividends, take over target, triple outside interest, blah blah blah...we'll see where this goes.

Edit: My bad...didn't break a 1 month high...it's been higher.

Edit: Apparently, I actually got in a penny cheaper at 6.76.
 
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Added TASR at 28.04. Nice trend, good growth, and the political environment is favorable. Please understand it also tripped my favorite holy grail method also, but I favored this one over a few others.
 
Um,...ok.

So your first trade is a very thinly traded airline under $7 and your second trade is on a definite uptrend but at the extreme upper end of trendlines. Chase much? I am not trying to flame here but shouldn't your posts about using TA provide some TA in their reasoning? Why would we want to follow and seek the advice of someone that just "noticed something" and "played a bit" and "seems to be working" with NO description and obviously no back testing or forward testing done with this new and improved method.

Maybe you should ask others on here for a second opinion on your trades and whether we would take them.
 
eganon69 said:
Um,...ok.

So your first trade is a very thinly traded airline under $7 and your second trade is on a definite uptrend but at the extreme upper end of trendlines. Chase much? I am not trying to flame here but shouldn't your posts about using TA provide some TA in their reasoning? Why would we want to follow and seek the advice of someone that just "noticed something" and "played a bit" and "seems to be working" with NO description and obviously no back testing or forward testing done with this new and improved method.

Maybe you should ask others on here for a second opinion on your trades and whether we would take them.
More...

Fair questions. First if you don't want to follow my posts, don't follow them. Doesn't bother me. But realize that I'm putting myself out there, and publically stating what I think will work. Takes guts. If you take the time to read this thread, you'll see that I'm pretty accurate with my swing trades.

Second, my trades are momentum based, and I have a method to distinguish between the flash in the pan rally with no real follow-thru, and a rallies that are legitimate. Today both of these stocks gave me an "it's real" signal, so I bought them. TASR appears to be resuming it's trend based on the acceleration of its price action, even if it's sputtering right now...essentially, it just re-affirmed that there is more to come over the mid-term. AVH looks like it's cycling like it did around April 11th. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVH&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=15&id=p34927588217

This is all based on what I'm seeing based on what I think works.

Am I sharing my methods? No. Most traders who have something that works don't share very much. Sorry.

Will these trades work out? I think so right now, but I've been wrong before. It's a percentage game. I'm right more than I'm wrong.
 
Fair enough. As a swing trader that uses TA exclusively I understand not sharing methods but at least a chart would make more sense for a thread entitled "... Swing trades thru TA" (my 0.02)

Not that you asked but both your trades may work out depending on your stop loss price since I agree they are both on uptrends. However, TASR looks to have gone too far and needs retracement. Better prices will be had if you wait a bit. AVH chart actually looks better but most people who trade would say don't trade a stock that thinly traded and much less in an industry that is as volatile as airlines can be.

Either way, GL with trades.
 
Thanks. The thing about TASR is that it bobbled last week(congestion) and then it jumped solidly today (almost 3%)...looks like a breakout to me, and the candle fits so well with the previous trend too. Seems like price got ahead of itself for about 5 days, and now it will resume its upward march. Here's a chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TASR&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=15&id=p45681212294 I often think that momentum trading is really just keying into paradigm shifts or accumulation that isn't immediately obvious in the numbers but is a change in perception of a company's value. If I was a police captain right now, I'd be telling my new recruits, "our new policy is Taze first, and ask questions later...come and get your new Tazer". That's really what I'd do.

As for the thinly traded aspect of the AVH, I'm raising the Jolly Roger and sailing into battle! :) Nah, I don't like going below 50,000 per day. This one has maintained 100,000 per day for the last month, so I think it's OK. Could work to my advantage.

My one concern is market direction in general. That's what I'm worried about...that's what always sinks me when I go long. So I'll use stops and attend church.
 
Still in TASR and AVH. TASR is doing nicely. AVH hasn't triggered my sell signal yet and I'm trying to be disciplined on it's down day. Still acts like it's in an uptrend, so I'll follow my system. TASR seems to have confirmed that it is resuming its glorious upward move.
 
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