Smart Money Still Not Buying

Specterx said:
What is this index and how is it calculated?

Looks screwy to me - and not very reliable for signaling, or confirmation. The Dow more than doubled from 1955-1972 while this index fell from 10k to 7k. Now all of a sudden it's collapsed 40% in a year?

That's not to say that we can't get a bear market, but surely there are better pieces of evidence to be looking at.
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no bother lol... just a bear trying to rationalize.

real data is the opposite.. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment most of retail is OUT, not IN.. and ET although better than most other trading sites, can not be too far away... retail people all think alike.

this price action from october to march is too obvious what the purpose was.
 
Woodrow97 said:
Bloomberg Smart Money Flow Index, which has been highly correlated with the SPX for the past 20 years, has plunged over -30% since Jan 26, 2018. While the major indices hit ATH last year, the SMI fell significantly. Last quarter, despite the double digit rally in world markets, smart money flow has never returned to pre-selloff level of 16158.

Bear market rally is about to fade. Caveat emptor.

View attachment 200224
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...acting-dumb-could-be-good-news-for-u-s-stocks

Why Smart Money Acting Dumb Could Be Good News for U.S. Stocks

“The big drop in the SMFI is likely not a negative indication of ‘smart money’ selling,” he wrote in a note Tuesday. “More likely, it’s the opposite as passive investors hit the sell button and exchange-traded fund providers have to sell stock in order to keep everything in line before the market close each day.”

The Smart Money Flow Index traded this week below levels seen during the global financial crisis and the dotcom crash, but that’s not because so-called smart money investors are running for the exits, but rather more likely is the result of forced selling from exchange-traded funds, says Sundial president, Jason Goepfert.
 
dozu888 said:
real data is the opposite.. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment most of retail is OUT, not IN.. and ET although better than most other trading sites, can not be too far away... retail people all think alike.
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Well, someone was buying from the end of December until now 'cause the market is up. If the smart money indicator is right (I have my doubts) it muse have been the dumb money.
 
Specterx said:
What is this index and how is it calculated?

Looks screwy to me - and not very reliable for signaling, or confirmation. The Dow more than doubled from 1955-1972 while this index fell from 10k to 7k. Now all of a sudden it's collapsed 40% in a year?

That's not to say that we can't get a bear market, but surely there are better pieces of evidence to be looking at.
More...

Yeah, has this ever been systematically tested, both in and out-of-sample? Hundreds of indicators out there...most are worthless.
 
sle said:
Well, someone was buying from the end of December until now 'cause the market is up. If the smart money indicator is right (I have my doubts) it muse have been the dumb money.
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Those dumb retails. They will pay for their sins. How dare they? :wtf:
 
Scataphagos said:
The last bounce from 12000 to 14063... isn't that the 1st quarter of 2019?
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Yep! But looking at conditional probability, we are passed the January highs of last year, yet smart money flow has FALLEN -30% at the same price level, at roughly the same volatility.
 
Woodrow97 said:
Yep! But looking at conditional probability, we are passed the January highs of last year, yet smart money flow has FALLEN -30% at the same price level, at roughly the same volatility.
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Is that the real issue or is it more that "smart money wasn't onboard, but now they are"?
 
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