There is no tellign where the smart money is, but you can tell where the big money (pension funds, mutual funds) is at. They're currently very hedged with short positions on futures.
It's unlikely they are the ones buying up this market, and they won't be buying the dips when it tanks this time.
Yes, I'm a bear and I'm not going to9 change my opinion just because some index managed to go up a bit this month.