Sleepless Nights

Originally posted by lundy
Tomorrows open will be lower than todays close. After a brief attempt at a rally, the NDX will sell off.
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Looks like the enhancements I did to the gap play yesterday have really paid off. I've been able to keep a biased opinion about being short all day today because i had this plan.

I think the play has become more of a gap + direction play.

I think thats all the trading for me today, I have to see what tomorrow holds for me.

I did 3 trades today, albiet at different price levels, all on the short side.

Short yesterdays close 1104 covered 1094.5

Long calls from yesterday sold @ just above break even during the "breif attempt at a rally".

Short 1106 and 1111 during that "brief attempt at a rally" and covered into the sell off @ 1098 and 1090 and 1080.

Short again @ 1117 and covered @ 1109 and 1097

Also, with my revamped gap play, theres less chance that I will have to double dip since the original direction indicator has been tweaked. Not that the double dipping was bad, either way, it makes $$$.

edit: wow i just realized that I quoted myself. is that a sign of being an arrogant prick or an elite trader? probably an arrogant prick who thinks i'm elite! :cool:
 
for tomorrows gap, i only know one thing for sure.

It will be closed. The direction of the gap is a bit fuzzy but i'm 70% sure it will be down.

Since i'm sure the gap will be closed, I will take this 70% bet, and go ahead and short todays close. If i'm wrong I will double dip and short more at the open because I know the gap will be closed.

If I'm right, I will exit the short position at the open, and go long immediately thereafter until the gap is closed.

Tomorrows overall direction is unclear at this time, but it's biased down.

So basically, the only thing i'm totally clear on is that the gap will be closed. With this information in hand, I beleive I can make money using the above strategy.
 
Tomorrow @ 8:30, jobless claims and retail sales numbers will hit the street. The market is going up, apparently in anticipation of good news. I think it's a gamble, so I am not going to bet tonight.
 
covered my NQ @ 1116 + 7

averaging into a long as well because i beleive the gap will be closed.

will sell the calls when the gap gets closed.
 
or close enough, I sold my calls for a marginal loss... sold my buy on NQ from 1115 @ 1122 + 7 on a partial position.

I'm all out, and the gap play is finished as I don't really have any other information to work from.

note: the closure isn't always perfect.... sometimes it's a .5 off so I'm always putting my order in just before it gets closed. Yesterday @ 16:00 futures traded @ 1123. So a 1122.5 is considered a closure for me.


edit: however I can say that there is still a bias down. I may take other intraday signals short. will update when i do.
 
I think I mentioned this earlier, I will sometimes buy or sell in overnight trading if I can get a better fill than I did at the close. However, unless I post it here, I don't add it to my exit in profit or loss.

but it doesn't mean I don't do it and it really adds to the profitability. The overnight can give very good entries like last night, futures went up to 1132.

It's arbing my original bet and it's done within the parameters of my risk management strategy.
 
I always play technicals, even heading into fundamental data. I beleive that the technicals are based on past fundamentals, and therefore fit to use in forecasting future moves even with fundamental news feeding the market.
 
once again i'm getting confirmations that we are still going lower. Target is 978 on the NDX for a bottom and longer term bounce (ie a few months of rallying).

I'm going to buy a few puts here, just to hold til then since i'm not doing much else today.
 
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