Skill Vs. Edge

[malaka56]

Quote from MrPaul:

I'm in the same camp as you on this.

If for instance someone trades off Price and volume, simply identifies wholesale accumulation or distribution and trades the path of least resistance over years and years profitably, is it an edge or a skill?

Don't know what you trade. But the original argument was on edges in equities. In equities there have existed many small edges, many based on market structure and other weird things happening.

Changing the argument to futures, I think the concept of edge changes more to a statistical advantage...

 

[Lights]

first of all, skill is an ability.

this thread is an interesting one, because there really are two fundamentally different approaches to this subject.

our current educational structure teaches children early on that success is possible by all, by means of obtaining some edge. you can stumble onto this edge, buy this edge, etc. it also assumes that people are at same baseline ability. it is also societal, as talent and ability is no longer rewarded as seen in music, film, entertainment and arts.

people tend to make "irrelevant" natural ability which manifests itself as superior skill. most will never achieve this level of skill, by definition makes it an edge.

Quote from marketsurfer:

i agree and disagree. allow me to explain......

everyone's skill level is not equal, i agree---this is irrelevant, however.
the market is predator prey relationships with the prey being a meeting of the clones as you say. there are very, very few edges and the prey(clones) is everyone without an edge. reality is, its actually worse than a simple predator prey relationship since the vig is constantly digging into the prey ( clones) win or lose.

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Lights:

first of all, skill is an ability.

this thread is an interesting one, because there really are two fundamentally different approaches to this subject.

our current educational structure teaches children early on that success is possible by all, by means of obtaining some edge. you can stumble onto this edge, buy this edge, etc. it also assumes that people are at same baseline ability. it is also societal, as talent and ability is no longer rewarded as seen in music, film, entertainment and arts.

people tend to make "irrelevant" natural ability which manifests itself as superior skill. most will never achieve this level of skill, by definition makes it an edge.

i cant argue with some people perhaps having a "gift". it's entirely possible, and even probable. however, this is the realm of metaphysics and once again irrelevant---- unless ofcourse,(we) can hire this person......

 

[Lights]

the denial is deeply rooted early on.

Quote from marketsurfer:

i cant argue with some people perhaps having a "gift". it's entirely possible, and even probable. however, this is the realm of metaphysics and once again irrelevant---- unless ofcourse,(we) can hire this person......

 

[Dustin]

The best skill in trading is the ability to recognize when strategies start and stop working.

Over the years I've developed about 10 profitable setups, but only a few work at any given time. Last week I cut size on my main strategy of the past few months, and next week I will be implementing a brand new one that has been partially automated. My trade size and aggressiveness change weekly. That's where skill and edge collide.

 

[Spectre2007]

If you believe in the idea that 95% of the people fail in the market. Then why do the other 5% succeed?

Behavior patterns are bell shaped given a situation. Meaning most people will behave the same way when given a certain situation. A small percentage of the populace will behave very different from the norm.

So basically all financial markets become a construct of behavior patterns of 95% of the people. The 5% fades the other 95%. Thats why large firms or CFTC that has access to data or exchanges or another independent body that has numbers more detailed then your COT report.

On any given day, if 95% of the people are failing, and you have access to the data of what the other 5% are doing. Then you have a edge.

When faced with a given price action, you have to ask yourself is this what everyone else is doing?

95% of the people will

1) let losses escalate
2) will take small profits
3) overleverage (trying to gamble)
4) fear is realized too late (sell bottoms)
5) greed is realized too late (buy tops)
6) will countertrade instead of front running intraday price moves

 

[Purple Barney]

Quote from marketsurfer:

i cant argue with some people perhaps having a "gift". it's entirely possible, and even probable. however, this is the realm of metaphysics and once again irrelevant---- unless ofcourse,(we) can hire this person......

You don't necissarily have to have a gift, or even have exeptional skill. Above average skill is enough to create an edge. As long as you have above average skill/experience, you have an edge over those with average to below average skill, which by definition is the majority of the people. Also, having something the majority doesn't is, by definition, an edge.