Good analysis!Quote from mtzianos:
Let me add this:
I would NEVER, repeat NEVER, have imagined that the powers that be would be able to prop up USD to these levels of 90. And I admit that I was wrong about their ability to make it happen, regardless of underlying reality and funnymentals (even the skewed one fed to the media).
Still, with regard to the JPY/USD trade, I would think this is a good opportunity for Bank of Japan to cash-in either part or whole of its $320bn (=$50 for EVERY PERSON ON EARTH, which it created out of thin air back in 2003-2004 and bought dollars vs Yen).
So they could buy back the equivalent of $320bn in Yen (overall maybe even with a profit, at the expense of those who rushed to hedge their USD exposure) and cancel those bonds they issued (internally). And avoid the issue of forex fluctuations creating huge losses for their taxpayers (as if they cared...).
Overall, BOJ dollar position had an open (unrealized) loss close to -$100bn by the end of 2004 on that trade. This BOJ position might actually be close to break-even or even in profits right now.
Agreed, this 17-cent tumble even shocked me, and I've got market shocks already build into my system!
how on earth could fundamentals that drove EUR/USD to 1.3665, that have NOT actually changed, now account for a 1700-pip drop swing??
lmao,
Saham

