SJL's ES 6 ticks scalping

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speedo said:
I've traded the ES for years and have known Al for years. Three ticks is unrealistic for a stop loss. As Handle said, the noise alone will stop you out.
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Smaller/faster bars would be unwise as the only time a six-tick scalp with a high probability of small risk would present itself would require a confluence of factors derived from a longer time frame setup, and a < 2K volume bar chart could not provide that.

Speedo, can you clarify about knowing Al for years, have you have traded with him and can you testify as to his real-time expertise in execution and price prediction as an ES day trader?
 
Xela said:
Very interesting - thanks for starting the thread.

If questions are welcome, why have you gone for 2,000V charts (just to clarify: I'm not asking about why volume bars, or why no indicators) for entering trades with a 6-tick target? I would have perhaps expected somewhat smaller/faster bars?
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Good question. E-mini S&P500 future is very heavily traded typically getting over a million volume a day. With a faster bar like 500v chart, it will display so many bars making harder for me to see previous highs and lows as well as pullbacks in one screen. With 2000v chart, I am expecting about 250 bars or more within 2 hour period, which I can handle no problem. Second reason is that with 500v chart, range from top to bottom is too tight, which preventing me from seeing the whole picture. In conclusion, in my opinion, for targeting 6 ticks, 2000v shows the best for now. If ES gets twice the volume with higher volatility, I am willing to increase the number of volume per bar. Hopefully this answers your question.
 
Handle123 said:
Oh boy, it would take weeks to explain all that comes to my mine as I been day trading S&P500 for over 30 years now. I know this market better than any instrument and 3 months, well, not anywhere close in what I have in mind. Also, if you been doing sim, you don't know if package you using in very much like actual day trading or does it fudge too much, and I don't know which are the best ones, I think Ninja might be better than most.

Profit is defined by type of signals and has little to do with whether trend or counter-trend. Has to do with lengths of average swings then mini swings like waves of Elliott Wave, knowing on average what should be normal in ES and what is harder trending day and how to identify and have Trading Plan to adapt to changing structure.

Using 3 tick stops, noise alone will pick that off. I don't use hard stops, I average down on each signal, so I don't want to cause my own slippage. If you getting hit no matter what stop loss you using, you know where near trading real time. Your back testing should be no less than 3,000 sample size as you would know better what to expect and going back 5 years. Last method I back tested had over 26,000 sample size, so I know my method well and know what to expect. You make what you put in.

For me, day trading profits generally are inverse to risk, I always risk more than reward, but since I concentrate on low losing percentages and make plus one tick is breakeven for me and ave down at same price for the plus one tick on original trade, meaning if I add on of minus 1, 2, 3 and get out at Plus 1, then plus 2, 3, 4, I do well on a breakeven trade. I target either 2 or 3 points and depending on where price within a swing ave defines time stops to get to breakeven plus one tick.

To me it is where price is now, what price is doing as far as patterns of price and or volume, is price structure showing I should not take a signal is as important as taking signals, being in trade so many minutes, getting out early if price shows patterns. I trade first 75 minutes on most days and like today, traded hour early cause of reports.
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I am a noob so I have to just try it out :) Thanks for detailed answer
 
SJL said:
E-mini S&P500 future is very heavily traded typically getting over a million volume a day. With a faster bar like 500v chart, it will display so many bars making harder for me to see previous highs and lows as well as pullbacks in one screen. With 2000v chart, I am expecting about 250 bars or more within 2 hour period, which I can handle no problem. Second reason is that with 500v chart, range from top to bottom is too tight, which preventing me from seeing the whole picture. In conclusion, in my opinion, for targeting 6 ticks, 2000v shows the best for now. If ES gets twice the volume with higher volatility, I am willing to increase the number of volume per bar. Hopefully this answers your question.
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Thanks! It answers it very well and very helpfully. And good luck with this. :cool:
 
Q3D said:
Smaller/faster bars would be unwise as the only time a six-tick scalp with a high probability of small risk would present itself would require a confluence of factors derived from a longer time frame setup, and a < 2K volume bar chart could not provide that.

Speedo, can you clarify about knowing Al for years, have you have traded with him and can you testify as to his real-time expertise in execution and price prediction as an ES day trader?
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We used to trade charts and trade ideas back in the early 2000s. At the time we were both trading the old Russell 2000 contract on short TF tick charts. He sent me his first book but by then he had moved to the ES and 5 minute charts and his way of looking at price action had changed and gotten more complex. I can speak to his intelligence and work ethic and believe he can trade but have no current proof of that.
 
That's interesting, his method and market changed and soon after that he released a book teaching that method/market context. That seems somewhat hasty, for a profitable day trader to switch methods and then go public so quickly with the new method.
 
Why are you guys so infactuated with volume bars ?
Tick bars make a lot more sense (especially for algo trading) and aren't affected by large volume players in the market.
 
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