SiSePuede's Journal

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I'm short CRM as of today, in addition to my existing short portfolio, which I've built in great detail over the last 9 weeks.

Possible additional positions: RSH, PCU (waiting for technical damage on chart).


Good journal idea, SiSePuede.
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CRM is one of those stocks I'd be concerned about news helping. A quick look at their financials has me scracthing my head as to how they'd spend $110M in SG&A?!?!

I just saw that next Tuesday the company is possibly expected to announce a formal deal with GOOG and could get a pop from that. If it runs up after a formal announcement I'd look to short. I'd think you'll see it move quickly either way and could go cheap and buy June $45 Puts and June $50 Calls for a cheap way to play it either way...likely it will break up or down...at least it looks like that to me. Also, the chart looks like it's forming a cup in good form and could add the handle and blow up. I'd imagine buyout speculation will be rampant if they do have a formal GOOG deal going and with about 10 million shares short you should at least hedge with some cheap $50 calls maybe. Just my thinking.

I've been salivating to short RSH. PCU is a vicious dog and just churns higher. I'm also waiting with you on that one. Copper prices have to back off a bit sometime soon and PCU will take a big hit when the trend is broken.

I'm going to start looking for more long-term short plays...mostly via Puts. I think there is junk out there that's overvalued. It's also about timing though, some things fall through the cracks and other stays aloft even though it's overvalued junk, AMZN being one.

Cheers bro.
 
Quote from SiSePuede!:

p.s. I think AXP is going to try and breakout into the closing today...it's done it for the past few sessions and chewed through a wall of probably 1M+ shares yesterday at $65. A walk through and a higher closing above $65.15(this morning's opening high) would be a great sign to me. I'm already long a number of different Calls on this stock. It's a great company and they are now allowing people to pay mortgages with their cards, ingenious in my opinion!
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AXP is running a strong correlation to MA. I would be very careful in AXP here. Look to get out of AXP if MA forms a reversal bar on the 30m or longer.
 
Quote from atticus:

AXP is running a strong correlation to MA. I would be very careful in AXP here. Look to get out of AXP if MA forms a reversal bar on the 30m or longer.
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I'm not too concerned and my AXP play is long term for the most part.

http://tinyurl.com/36ajcg

MA is out of control up, whereas AXP should be able to run more without overheating. AXP is actually down today while MA is up 4%. I think the correlation is there industry-wise, but I don't think AXP is going to tank. I honestly don't follow MA and its chart is insanely impressive, it looks like it can/will go higher before it shits itself in a heap of momentum...but I'd take AXP as a stock that can move on its own.
 
After thinking about RSH as a possible short and looking at the chart, I'd agree that it's a great candidate, but via Puts. Reading over their previous earnings, it really looks like the company's revenue is such shit that they may get hit to the downside no matter how much their company is being turned around.

One curious thing is that in the 1st Q RSH had $995M or so in Revenue. That includes the holiday season. Yet, according to Yahoo, analysts are estimating $1B in revenue for the 2nd quarter which would somehow trump 1st Q. I don't see how that will happen. This stock is really ahead of itself. I've attached a chart. It looks like if it bounces off the top channel line I've drawn in there you could go short and it'll probably blow through the bottom side next time it takes a breather.

Momentum on the stock looks to be diminishing as well.


Also looked at PCU again. This is one play I really blew it on. I had June $57.50 Calls when the stock was at $61-$62 and should have held them...bailed with a nice profit. I've learned much more about trading since then and think I would have probably held at least half my position and maybe started writing some options to generate income against my position. But, that was then and this is now.

I don't think PCU can be counted down and out yet...it would be good to wait maybe until it makes its next move. I would actually hope for one more exhaustive run towards $95 and then a total collapse. Doubt that will happen...this stock is what funds eat for breakfast due to its extremely high dividend. But if it makes another big charge and copper prices cool down a bit it looks like there is a big retracement in store.

Options are an excellent move in this stock in my opinion because if you buy some ITM long term Puts you're pretty much getting value as the stock moves and you're buying time. The deterioration might suck if you're wrong, but hey, that's what investing is all about. You could also buy some cheap way OTM calls just as a slight hedge in case something were to go wrong. Say Jan 08 $110 Calls...that way if you're wrong and the stock moves one way you could unwind one of the options and still retain decent money from it due to time left on the contract.

Both charts are attached.
 

Attachments

Totally forgot to mention that I've loaded up on a lot of shares of MGRM. This stock bottomed recently and looks like it's priming to move higher. There is a clear bottom in on the stock, it's very liquid, and it's probably going to move nicely in the next few weeks. The risk/reward to me looks EXCELLENT so I bought some large amount that will make an excellent trade if/when the stock moves. Totally forgot to mention this stock even though it's a large part of my "trading" money. The rest of it is going long into a few stocks and is already sitting long term on another.
 
Decided I would have covered my CMCO short. It was a dumb thought to short it after mulling it. Would watch it. If it can break higher strongly you could ride it a bit, but it's very illiquid and might be hard to get out.
 
Looks like RSH ould be shorted here if it holds under $34...looks like it bounced off the upper line of the channel.

DRYS - Still kicking ass. I wish I had some liquidity to throw at that stock, I have a strong feeling it's going to break out even bigger. $45 is not out of the question in the next few weeks...there is a perfect cup formed, whether there is a handle or not I don't know, but it looks like it's going to explode.

GWR - Just noticed this stocks is up a bunch already...it's going to be much higher. I feel very very strongly about this stock and options on it are dirt cheap in my opinion. This stock will likely continue to rise and reach higher and higher. I'd still be a buyer here and lower if it retraces.

CELG - Fib retracements show a 38% retracement putting it at about $58. I'm holding that as a price target for now as the stock looks very very weak and there seems to be no shortage of sellers.

FRO - Still looks strong. Good block buying at the ASK. Little selling at the BID.

AXP - This stock desperately wants to break out in my opinion. If it falls below $64.60 today it might take a bit longer and move around the channel it's been trading in. If it breaks $65 on strong volume today it will be a great move...I don't doubt it can get there, but there's been a firm seller recently and I'm not sure they're ready to abate.
 
RSH - Bought 35 October $30 Puts @ $1.90 to wet my appetite. Will buy more if it continues the fall. It bounced off that upper channel line pretty good it seems. :D
 
Mixed bag today of my holdings.

The Bad:

RSH - It's bounced back a bit...although I expected it to potentially hold up. I don't think it can hold up long term and that's why I started buying long term Puts.

DRYS - It's not weak at all really and the handle is forming it seems on a PERFECT CUP AND HANDLE now...so I'm holding. Have such a small stake there I don't really care.

The Good:

AXP - Looks like it's holding up (nicely?) over $65 for right now...I don't expect it to move lower now anyway. Will hold it long term, I like this one.

FRO - A monster, this thing is unstoppable since I got it last week.

GWR - Doing what it does shifting up and down on low volume. I think it's moving higher still.

AMZN - Looks like it's starting to break down a bit more. Time time time.

PDE - Looks good. Those October $40 Calls I have seem like a good investment and the premium on them was low.

The Rest:

MGRM, PRXI, TBLC, and GORO - These are my bag of small caps to get rich off of. They're doing their own thing as usual...all are strong and stable looking as usual.
 
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