Sincerely asking for Help

I don't know jack about Jack. Other than sending him a PM about vets having PTSD that asked him some questions that did not receive a reply I have had no interaction with the gentleman. (if your reading this Jack I would still like a reply if you are a DR. and if not then no worries)

One thing I do find interesting is the posting of a chart showing a loss based on a trade or perhaps several trades. The thing is that caught my eye is that the posts do not actually say Mr. Hershey methods are a zero in return. If a zero then yes they fall in the camp with so many setups that end up worthless (I have lots of them myself). It appears what the bashers are saying is that Mr. Hershey's setups lose money very consistently or are trying to give that impression. If one is to believe that a setup is highly negative and consistent and still bashes the setup than I am afraid the person is missing out on one of the greatest gifts ever OR can't back up what they are claiming.

The reason is simple. If you show me a system that consistently loses money I will be able to make money off of it. The only thing needed in system development is consistent results away from zero.

I would not try to sling mud without the person really going out of their way to offend me and even then I think I have shown great restraint. I don't have a big problem with it either if the goal is to keep everyone honest either. As they said in the movie wall st we are all just one trade away from being wiped out. If someone is willing to take the time to offer some advise like Mr. Hershey has then maybe just take a look at it and see if you can gain something from it. If so he has been of of help to you and if not perhaps you haven't looked at it in all the possible ways.

Life is short and we are lucky for all we have. enjoy it to its fullest and let others do the same


I'm just saying.......







Quote from glockalock:

Jack Hershey has a tax lien against him for unpaid taxes to the tune of $82,000 that was filed in 2006. If you go to Maricopa County's recorder web site (http://recorder.maricopa.gov/recdocdata/) and type into the Recording Number fields, the following number: 2006 1575958 and click "search" you will be able to see the recorded document.

A background investigation also found that he has no real assets (in terms of real-estate) and does not sit on the board of any company... in fact he is broke and in debt... evidence also shows that Jack has a few failed marriages behind him where he has left monies owed in the split ups. He currently resides in a very modest house owned by his latest partner and lives off her income.

This man has never made a cent trading, that much is obvious.
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This thread isn't about Jack Hershey's personal life or track record ... It's like a bunch of paparazzi pop out of the bushes in every thread Jack posts on...WTH??? Bunch of drama lol
 
Quote from blox87:

This thread isn't about Jack Hershey's personal life or track record ... It's like a bunch of paparazzi pop out of the bushes in every thread Jack posts on...WTH??? Bunch of drama lol
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:p lmao
 
can't have been that strong can it....how old are you now?

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Always had a strong desire to trade since I was 16. I wake up every morning loving watching the markets and know this is my calling.
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Then work it out for-self. This is B*S*. You want advice on your "calling"? Doesn't make sense pal.
 
i just noticed
jack hershey likes to enter newbie threads and "teach" the newbies.


either good samaritian or good wolf on the helpless.
 
I've said it many times in the past... basically that Jack's "method" couldn't overcome the transaction costs in my testing and it was statistically indistinguishable from entering based on coin flips.

To help make this point I've also posted this, a profitable entry methods that DOES overcome transaction costs -- tested under the exact same conditions and parameters I used for testing Jack's "method" -- 5 day exits, same stocks, same time period, NO prescreened "universe," same transaction fees, etc., and got this equity curve.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2715590>

Quote from Robert Weinstein:

One thing I do find interesting is the posting of a chart showing a loss based on a trade or perhaps several trades. The thing is that caught my eye is that the posts do not actually say Mr. Hershey methods are a zero in return. If a zero then yes they fall in the camp with so many setups that end up worthless (I have lots of them myself).
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T666 has posted two charts covering the five year period from 2000 to 2005. He characteriszes the trading as 5000 years of stock trading because 1000 stocks were in his universe.

we notice that trades are done in each scenario. These are important to eny trade since he wants to be trading his account no matter what its size.

Both accounts of T666 are using the same initial capital as he has explained. The amount he posted was 500,000 dollars.

He states he uses timeout trading and one of two types of entry. One entry is proprietory and it gives 1100 trades over 5,000 stock years of trading for 5 years using 1000 stocks as a universe. The other entry is the snippet for when the score goes from 0 to 7 on the 1000 stocks during the time period from 2000 to 2005; this happens 24,000 times and the hold is always 5 days regardless of anything.


By creting just avrage information it looks like the 24,000 trades of 5 days each are divided over 1000 stocks during 1250 days. This is 24 trades on average. So 5 times 24 (120 days) is the time in the market over 1,250 days. The Lo pattern trading was on 5 year segments also. Thier patterns were givem l's and d's which meant holds were in the 30 to 40 day range and the trades triggered about 7 times in 5 years for a pattern. Neither Lo nor T666 made any money.

So cpital is applied to a given stock about 10% of the time for one method and for the other capital is applied 1/2 a percent of the time.

The saw tooth of long and short is in a 10 to 90 percent ratio for the losing system and in a 0.5% to 99.5% ratio for the winning system.
This gives the portfolio ratio of 1 to 20 for the number of stoks in each potfolio. The actual numbers over the five years are known to T666 and Probably some of you are amazed at the sophistication of the required uncorrolated application of capital of the backtesting he said he did. He certainly beat out any fund of any sort or any of the wizards that have been documented anywhere.

Lo's ratio of pattern trading is long and short about the same and sidelined most of the time (45% under best conditional minimum)

So the application of capital and the diversity of the portfolio are specified for any given time by how much any given stock world have an application of capital.

This could be a spactrum of the kinds of trading during a period of 5 years. Since T666 has posted these contrasting methods, maybe it does represent his considered trading spectrum for trading the stiocks in the market where those stocks trade.

ET on the otherhand is a trading forum. Why would he post in ET if he is not doing trading (meaning trading as shown above by him an LO)? He posts because the 5 day hold is position trading and it is a common way to trade to make money if the money is ever in the market.

5,000 stock years of opportunity either generates 24,000 trades or it generates 1100 trades over the five years.

If a person is trading 500,000 dollars in an account what does the trading look like on his prints? The 5 year list for on method is a print 24,000 lines long. The other print is 1100 lines long.

I remember long ago before things were done on computers and trading precipitated an envolpe from the broker for a trade or the trades of the day all in ine envelope. At one time I traded the max of 15 accounts of others usubg limited POA's. The envelopes made a little pile each day and there was a 4 days offest for settlement. I filed stuff and periodically punched it to put in binders. I also ran a speard sheet that was before the days of Excel.

I put my self in the place of T666 and the two strategies he uses to see what running 500,000 dollars in each account would look like in terms of the daily activity.

24,000 trades over 5 times 250 is doing trades at the beginning where some money goes into concurrent trades on a given day of the 1250 days of the trading years. I work my way down from 500,000 at the rate of lossing 18 dollars on each trade on average (see the linearity of the equity curve that shows no matter how much money is in trades the same rate of losing mony prevails.) So I thought why is the curve the xhape it is as the amount of shares traded goes further and further downward. T 66 posted the reasons and how he trades as the money shrunk down to just 100,000 dollars left at the end of five years.

Why didn't he lose the money in a different way and why couldn't he lose it faster or slower as the market conditions changed?

He didn't program the entries, someone else gave him the coding. He created the timeout instead of using the exit programming given to him . He had a reason for not using the edfined exit. The exits didn't occur as often as the entries.

Here is a question. if you enter a stock long and it does not have a short signal later, does that mean anything about the stock?

Lets say you are Warren Buffett and you do enteries ONLY when you have a "durable value" stock criteria met. H enters on this long signal. what deos he do as time passes? He keep checking to see if the durable value of the investment is still maintained.

It turns out that T666 an Warren use the same stocks in their portfolios. Warren did not do 24,000 trades using 1,000 stocks. I didn't either. I used a Universe of up to 200 stocks and traded them over and over using the scoring at each end of the trade.

I would do an averag hold of 6 to 8 days and average about 10% a turn. An ATS around that time traded a hold of 6.6 days and made 11.1 %

This can provide additional equity curves that do not match T666 or Warren. For your further consideration put all four EC's on one graph. It will illutrate how narrow the distance is between the down side of T666's trading and the upside of T666's trading really is. We can call T666's trading "trading in the 666 zone".

Maybe someone can create a market for graph paper with a streak on it that is the 666 zone just like the Burmuda Triangle on maps.

My recomendation for back testing is to take given starting capital and use an Excel for the trades all based on keeping a comprhensive and updated universe. Only use universes based on quality and also rank the available hot list by its money velocity and cycle duration when cash becomes available for rotating the portfolio. For using protection, determine from most recent volatility the stop offset (see my paper on 12 stopping techniques and use the one chosen based on near term past volatility stats).

From 01 Jan10 the current Universe and portfolio of four streams of 27K of intial capital is as follows: 27 trades (two losses @ BE) and net profit of 13K. 5k withdrawn from the initial capital and the rest componded. This is the initial trading of the trader. He is doing two things additional: begining his pass forward and symtrading ES using YM, OTR, DOM and S/S with a MADA routine.

He uses three 30 minute tile sets to monitor and annotate recently owned, DU, and Owned. He is using three fractals to monitor the PVT fractal, its faster fractal and the slower universe choosing fractal All observable and annotated. The B2B 2r 2b is the trading and observing long fractal pattern. The volume one pager is the signal generator for entries and exits in a list context of unusual volume as compared to a 65 day average. of scoring the A D A persiod is the hold and the sideline period is the D A D A D period. The short pattrn is observed and the sideline included the R2R and 2B. When the 2B ends the tile is moved to the DU group to observe the annotated 2R going at peaking volume to the B2B. After the peak to trough move after FTT , the stock is moved to the batting order (it is put there ahead of time in the Sunday Batting order listig) where the "unusual volume one pager is used to monitor on a list and the tile is annotated for the 0 to 7 shift where the entry is made on FRV when it goes from . 22 to .25.

The exit is made on the basis to "have cash to enter a potential trade. this accelerates the turnover rate of the exponent of the compound interst formula. The target is 100 per annum. (trader666's back test was running @ 5 per annum for comparison; which means his backtesting noncorrolated application of capital coding was not practical or just not working).

The hold for any stock is through the A D A which corresponds to three price moves B 2R 2B and is beginning just after the BO of the prior RTL all seen on a 30 minute stock chart.

the bais drift of the Tucson locals was to form a team to share the IAS, the Universe, the DAS's and the Batting order. Out of this grw the three tile piles of 30 minute charts. to manage this, they use skype and meetings between the Sunday meetings which rcuime this week. a seies of cantasias were rcordedand they are being "produced" into 4 to 6 segments each which are topicall codded.

You see T666 using the audio of past meet up camtasia that were produced and archived on the web. Itis slim picking for him since he can't figure anything out rationally and doesn't understand how MADA and its decision making works.

In 2010 March marks the advent of 50% profits for beginning traders. what happens next is more knowledge and skills being added through meetings and drills. infernce is enlarging and it is common that most of the time, the available infersenceallows for unconscious competence to be in the space for making cash avaialbe for application to a recognized opportunity.

Keep reading the repetitive postsI make and you will get an aha or so once in a while. Postponing trading effectivel and efficiently is a common process on the way to the exit of becoming a trader.
 
Quote from blox87:

I have been trying to learn everything I can about trading (specifically the /es, /6e, 6/b) in the past two years. Averaging 10-14 hours a day of screen time. Reading countless threads, methods, books, ect. ...(High probability trading, market wizards) ect. Back testing thousands of times looking for a holy grail automated strategy realizing that there is none for every single market condition as far as i know (bull, bear, sideways).

Here is my problem.

I feel that I need to find an automated strategy that I can back test and prove to myself that it will work long term before I start trading more than one contract at a time. I have a lot of capital that I have been waiting to put to use but can't seem to be consistently profitable yet. I have written probably ten different trading plans with each one having good RR ,clear entry /exits ect. but just can't seem to be constantly profitable. I feel that my brain is scrambled with 20 different methods and don't know which to use, My brain is scrambled with indicators, scaling methods, trailing stop methods and more. I feel I need to unlearn a lot and trade naked or something. I just feel cluttered.

Could some please shed some light on my situation if you have been in my shoes.


Not asking for a handout just some guidance. I want nothing more than to be able to trade futures for a living.

Maybe point me in the direction of a system or method that you think would suit my style.

A little about what I feel comfortable with.



-Longer term time frames 30 min ,1 hr, 1 day Using 1 day to determine the trend, 1 hr for Monitoring, and 30 min for entries.

-2% risk per trade taking in to consideration position size and Average True Range for my stop loss.

- I like regular stop losses. targets, or trailing stops, don't like scaling in/out

-I like to keep an eye on the Volume profile , s/r levels / trend lines ,9,18 EMA and MACD whether it is above/below zero



Like I said , I just lack confidence because I know that no system works in every environment . How do I know the market won't go sideways for the next year and really hurt me if I follow a bull trend strategy with discipline all year??

Any help is greatly appreciated by someone who can give me some direction to something that helped uncluttered their brain and focus on something that works.
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Get off frequent trading, you will blowup.

Buy some good 5 year T-Bonds (or good corporate bonds)
and spend the interests.

When there's a panic again (indices at least 30% down from former highs, buy.
 
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