Simulated Combine - NQ I
- Thread starter lajax
- Start date
You're correct, I do not know his trading plan. But you're going to have to explain to me how that's relevant because assuming he did trade his plan perfectly, he still underperformed the total return of the NQ. If you can explain how trading a plan perfectly that doesn't perform well is more important than performing well, I'd love to hear it.
He's doing a combine and its a simulator...that in itself implies he's using something new because if he was an experience trader and experience at using this trade method...he wouldn't be on a simulator and would try trading on his own with his own money. That's logical.
My discussion with you is not about his performance in comparison to the total return of the Nasdaq Emini NQ futures considering such is not the goal of the combine he's doing. Yet, if the combine rules involved comparison to the total return of the Emini NQ futures...your comments will then have merit.
Performing well is a perspective. For example, if someone has a trading plan that's suppose to net him +200 Emini NQ points per week but he only gets +45 points...
Yes, he's under-performing the benchmark of his trading plan and under-performing any other benchmark outside of his trading plan but only in hindsight...but he's profitable now and will most likely (in theory) improve his profitability as he gains more trading experience. Yet, reality is this, you do not know his trading plan...you do not know the benchmark rules of the combine he's trading within. If you did know the rules of his combine...you would be then be using the benchmark rules they've given him. Guess what, it does not involve the total return of the Emini NQ futures. However, I do understand your benchmark is the total return of the Emini NQ futures.
By the way, I myself do not know his trading plan but I do know the trade method that's being used within whatever trading plan he's applying. I also understand the combine rules he's trading within...the real benchmark. His success or failure in the combine will ultimately determine his trading plan performance in comparison.
Best wishes to him in trying to meet or exceed the benchmark given to him by the combine rules.
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LOL reading this.
Great idea for a thread, appreciate the work it takes. hope you you play this out to a conclusion despite criticism.
ps. you may learn from 'trolls' too
I think this right here is the heart of our debate. OP's combine was essentially the catalyst for this discussion you and I are having.
Performance can only be measured by comparing the returns of one result to another. So yes, that requires looking into the past, and comparing it to the future. But that is not hindsight bias which is what I think you're trying to ascribe to me here. As a reminder, hindsight bias is believing that a past event was predictable despite having no logical reason to believe that it was. That does not apply here, because I made no claims of predictive power based on the past. I simply compared the results of his performance trading the NQ to the total return of the NQ itself. That is how everyone has always measured performance; it is not my illogical invention.
You take issue with that because you believe that trading performance is a personal perspective and tied to a trading plan. Unfortunately, trading performance is not a personal perspective, and the trading plan must be to beat the benchmark. It has to be, otherwise, you'd be better off with a buy and hold.
That being said, I don't care what the rules or expectations of any combine or trading plan are. If the goal or result is anything less than excess alpha, it's a failure. From all angles.
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I then highly suggest you contact the combine folks and express your concern considering that you strongly believe that the lack of a rule that involves alpha or total return of the Emini NQ results in failure instead of using someone's journal to express such.
Heck, maybe they'll listen to your opinion and make changes going forward. They may not even stop there...they may even decide use other metrics for comparison to the Emini NQ futures performance to determine if someone passes or fails the combine.
That is how everyone has always measured performance; it is not my illogical invention.
Everyone does not measured their performance as such. That's not a logical statement considering the combine rules does not use such.
You get the last word...make it worthwhile.
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beautifully stated chris! cogent & compelling!
He traded the NQ, I compared his results to the NQ. I'm not sure why you find that so befuddling and illogical, but whatever the reason may be, it's wrong.
You get the last word...make it worthwhile.
tits.
