Simplicity in TA
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
Shoulder disrespect, head incoming aka new highs.
Possible 123 reversal on the weekly S&P 500 chart. Also being a part of monthly 2B (test of 2011 highs and retreat back down from there) it looks like some serious bearish pressure...
http://www.cornixforex.com/2012/05/possible-weekly-123-reversal-in-sp-500/
http://www.cornixforex.com/2012/05/possible-weekly-123-reversal-in-sp-500/
You nailed it, market did those pesky breakout failures RedTank likes to talk about. It seems market likes to fake a breakout more than breakingout itself. Fascinating.
Dow PA closed the month 14 points away from that update confirming the monthly doji candle.
This was followed by a perfect reaction on the triple top resistance and shorts easily taken intraday for a potential C top.
As I said this is close to a rerun and after this next contest it is likely to be ready for the real move. Before we got to the high marked 2D I was looking for the 2 Day cycle to set up for a move down and said it was the best chance since the Oct lows to put in the top.
It looks like the 2 Day cycle is now handing over to the 3 Day cycle which means everything is amplified and we can see some powerful whips.
The S&P has a great break point while the Dow has a little more to confirm a break.
Because of the many conflicts needing to be resolved in this next move it is harder to describe than last time. I was looking for a C top meaning I am overall very bearish but I need to see the weekly upside cycle turn into a bear runner and it is not there yet.
The Daily is well set up for a bounce up but that is against the 3 day cycle down that I think is the near term boss for this weeks action.
On the 2hr chart it looks like we have W3 down so a bounce here for W4 followed by W5 would complete this first part allowing the weekly ABC UP energy to gas out and then give us a negative monthly close.
I like to predict moves but wait for the confirmation in order to take the trade for a good prediction allows the trade to be taken very early to let it run. However with the daily against the 3 day which is against the weekly that is against the monthly this move needs daily updates that I don't have time for.
SYNOPSIS
I like that 3 day cycle to take her down but it needs to overcome the daily up and weekly up - that's whippy. I like this C top for a major move down. So this looks like a minor move up if support holds, bigger move down and then I need to see the weekly up fail and the real move down.
If you don't have the wherewithal to trade a whippy market then C short was the one to hold and if the weekly breaks that high run with it.
Looking at London 5hrs before the US open and it is down almost 2%. When the 3D Chart is boss down and the daily is due a bounce today... if that bounce doesn't happen then the daily is swamped by the 3 day cycle.
If we do get a bounce then I expect that to be counter and the 3 Day will turn it down.
This is what I was talking about earlier by using a failure to get success when a counter trend either fails as expected after a short run or, if it is up against a very strong cycle, it doesn't even make it out of the starting blocks.
When this 3 Day cycle down plays out I will be looking to see the set up on the weekly up cycle and it is that failure that will take us into the monthly down.
If we do get a bounce then I expect that to be counter and the 3 Day will turn it down.
This is what I was talking about earlier by using a failure to get success when a counter trend either fails as expected after a short run or, if it is up against a very strong cycle, it doesn't even make it out of the starting blocks.
When this 3 Day cycle down plays out I will be looking to see the set up on the weekly up cycle and it is that failure that will take us into the monthly down.