Hi Freak, After I posted the following you thought I was saying both up and down....
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"In a nutshell, the monthly and weekly charts across the indices are a bit out of sync. and that makes things messy - choppy. But choppy on that timeframe can be delicious in the lower TF's.
To make this bear move work out we need to resolve some major cycle conflicts. The weekly is setting up a very strong push up against the monthly which is attempting to form a bear top.
To kill off this weekly up move we need potent downside action and if that is not happening then we will once again be counter to a big up move.
Before this last swing top I said I was expecting a complex move before the real move and all the more so in an election year and with Central Bank interventions. If we have a weekly swing up that would set up that complexity.
ACTION
The next 6 trading days could be very interesting. Either we have a strong daily push down to swamp the weekly cycle and roll it over making the monthly the boss down, or we are counter for a strong weekly cycle up against the monthly turning it positive. It looks to be all in the strength of the move and if we break 12700. At the end of the week we will see better how the monthly chart reads."
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You read that as saying both up or down rather than if 12,700 is taken out we are in Wave 3 down and if it holds or we fail to get strong down side action then the weekly charts will drive us up in a strong move."
So specially for you I attempted to clarify with the following (and I am trying to help you understand by directing the focus of your attention to where it counts by these excerpts). Remember the key was to be the way the down action developed: we got a strong early one day down move that reversed like it hit an electric fence causing the daily candle to have a big tail underneath.
This lack of power in the down move is the predicted warning that the daily bears are about to get swallowed by the weekly bulls. This simple key in reading the lack of power down and in fact the sharp intraday reversal gave the expectancy for the big swing UP...
Quote from Xspurt:
To make it even MORE clear...
3) There is a very strong weekly up cycle that yes, can turn PA up, but if 12700 is broken with strength the likelihood is the weekly will get run over and the monthly chart will close bearish meaning more down.
4) That means if there is a move down in the daily but it lacks power then the weekly is going to reverse hard and swamp it, but if the daily moves down hard it is more likely the weekly will be swamped. It takes a powerful move down to prevent a powerful move up so you can read by the action who is going to win out.
6) Use the TL on the 2hr to keep short. Breaking this makes the downside less likely (I put this in here in case you can't read a reversal bottom. You can't miss the TL break)
7) My expectation is daily downside action and yes, it is in the context of weekly UP energy and monthly DOWN energy that sets up a tug of war for an important weekly and end of month close.
8) However there are clear intraday breaks, daily break points and the market tells us its intent by the way it attacks these level as well as the break of these levels.
8) Some will see multiple time frame conflicts as too hard to decipher and think I am saying nothing. Others will learn how to trade big TF chop and read the implications of a trigger point break for a guide to hold the swing.
I understand that if you can't make MTF work and read INTO the conflicts then what I say is gibberish. If you are learning to read MTF then it makes sense and gives lots of clear tips.
As I have said before, it is not just what PA does, but when it does it and how it does it that gives the clues. I have given wave structure and S&R implications for intraday and daily, the type of PA move that is important, volume indications and the converging to time. Loads of clues that will combine to make sense or be more gibberish.
But I understand that when many are presented with a conflict like this they wait for the outcome. Even when I post the equivalent level on the SPX to the 12,700 Dow level it won't register.
The reality is that it depends on what tools and skill level a trader has that decides when that outcome is clear. For some it will be minutes from the low while for others it will be days or even weeks from the reversal point.
I could go on but the eyes are blind and the ears are deaf.
