Simplicity in TA

My view on "gems". As most who know me know, I trade in quite a simple way. But at the same time trade together with yoohoo for years already.

Indeed, he often teaches things, which seem to be very complex to many people. But it isn't because he tries to mislead anyone, just there are different levels of perception in this business. Some find it enough to just trade simple PA setups and some always seek for better understanding of what's there. And yoohoo was always someone to me who "pushes the edge", motivates to become better and better and not settle in the comfort zone of moderate trading income.

Some may find it uncomfortable to know there's always something more advanced, more profits to be made, but for me it's a great motivator to develop my own abilities and evolve instead of sitting on the butt. :D
 
That daily EURUSD triangle I talked about in my blog last Friday is now broken during Asian session, which drags indices down and dollar up. Looking forward in hope to see gloomy European and US sessions as well. :D
 
SUCCESS FROM FAILURES

I have mentioned a number of failures like the FTSE pushing up as a fake move because an expected failure is a great confirmation. We are always trading in a multiple time frame context whether we are using MTF or are blind to that information and I have given loads of MTF examples here.

That means a great confirmation of a counter trend trade is the failure of that counter swing to fulfill its normal expectation. It's something that happens in every time frame and is an essential read to bigger profits.

A downward channel has an upward breakout expectation, so trading the falling line short is great until the downswing is complete. If you are reading the build up of energy during the drop and the number of hits you get ready for the fake and shake that is part of a much bigger swing up. That swing expectation combined with the expected outcome of the pattern sets up the break out trade. Usually it is a hold long trade unless the lower time frame is well structured.

Last weekend we had a different kind of failure. It was a lunar holiday (Passover) and the full moon usually sets up a bullish move from a pull back. If you read the thread I was not looking for a bull move as I was looking at a major top, but the failure of the moon to inspire anything bullish helped confirm the negative sentiment.

If I don't put you in a highchair and totally spoon feed gems, it might be because I have already covered the details elsewhere and leave you to do some homework. There are a host of trade tips, examples and projections in this thread and questions that I have answered. Asking questions about what you don't understand is one way to learn and then to learn more you will have to work a little harder. But having said that, if I don't float your boat, then this is not the pond for you as this is as good as it gets for free.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=76224

Oh btw, the 1st post on the moon thread shows space lines. So on the extreme right of the chart the line count is 3rd contact where the 2 red down cycle arrows are. Classic trend lines would have this as point 2 AFTER a reversal so traders are not looking at a potential reversal location. Everyone should have the moon as a trading buddy :)

The red horizontals are harmonic degrees.
 
Quote from cornixforex:

My view on "gems". As most who know me know, I trade in quite a simple way. But at the same time trade together with yoohoo for years already.

Indeed, he often teaches things, which seem to be very complex to many people. But it isn't because he tries to mislead anyone, just there are different levels of perception in this business. Some find it enough to just trade simple PA setups and some always seek for better understanding of what's there. And yoohoo was always someone to me who "pushes the edge", motivates to become better and better and not settle in the comfort zone of moderate trading income.

Some may find it uncomfortable to know there's always something more advanced, more profits to be made, but for me it's a great motivator to develop my own abilities and evolve instead of sitting on the butt. :D
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Although Cornix says he trades in a simple way, he also understands a lot of complex trading. Once the techniques are learned the art is developed and Cornix is creative enough to be his own man rather than my clone. Reading simplicity in complexity is the mature style and I try to glance on complex issues here while attempting to show the simple set ups because there's a bigger worldview. Like myself, Cornix has been learning the same things over and over for years, but each time it is at a deeper level. I call it circular learning.

If you don't understand something, you have options: react against it or dig deeper. One is easy and the other has a price tag so high that few ever know the cost. At one point Cornix was thinking his brain was going to blow up with some things I was demonstrating but now he multitasks while trading. He paid his dues and it shows. If you want detailed simple entries make sure you read his thread. What I am doing here is showing that TA can look ahead as I have detailed many entries and exits here and in other threads.

TA works. It always did. It always will. We trade time and emotion and they never end.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

SUCCESS FROM FAILURES

Oh btw, the 1st post on the moon thread shows space lines. So on the extreme right of the chart the line count is 3rd contact where the 2 red down cycle arrows are. Classic trend lines would have this as point 2 AFTER a reversal so traders are not looking at a potential reversal location. Everyone should have the moon as a trading buddy :)

The red horizontals are harmonic degrees.
More...
Xspurt... I've been trying to figure out those space lines..
It looks like they originate in the same way a gann square does... but pt 2 of the space lines seem to simply be swing highs and lows....or in the case of the line u are talking about ..also the close.
Is that right..???
Have u found that to be a better way to do it..??? ( they seem very accurate )
cheers Roelof
 
Quote from Xspurt:

Although Cornix says he trades in a simple way, he also understands a lot of complex trading. Once the techniques are learned the art is developed and Cornix is creative enough to be his own man rather than my clone. Reading simplicity in complexity is the mature style and I try to glance on complex issues here while attempting to show the simple set ups because there's a bigger worldview. Like myself, Cornix has been learning the same things over and over for years, but each time it is at a deeper level. I call it circular learning.

If you don't understand something, you have options: react against it or dig deeper. One is easy and the other has a price tag so high that few ever know the cost. At one point Cornix was thinking his brain was going to blow up with some things I was demonstrating but now he multitasks while trading. He paid his dues and it shows. If you want detailed simple entries make sure you read his thread. What I am doing here is showing that TA can look ahead as I have detailed many entries and exits here and in other threads.

TA works. It always did. It always will. We trade time and emotion and they never end.
More...

True that. By saying "simple" I never meant to say it's "easy", because it's as simple as any other craft is after you practice is for a while. :)

Simple in the way of being sum of simple elements, but time is required to develop perception of those elements as a symphony rather than a sequence of seemingly random events.
 
Quote from rhk:

Xspurt... I've been trying to figure out those space lines..
It looks like they originate in the same way a gann square does... but pt 2 of the space lines seem to simply be swing highs and lows....or in the case of the line u are talking about ..also the close.
Is that right..???
Have u found that to be a better way to do it..??? ( they seem very accurate )
cheers Roelof
More...

Yes it began from the Square of 9 combined with the Gann Square and using the harmonic levels, and then I further developed it from that. There are fixed lines and natural line: the fixed are like the Box and precede PA. The Natural are based on prior PA.

Using the Box can give you loads of intersecting lines because lines start from every level in the box and these multiple intersections look like dirty blobs on a chart. They are powerful S&R points.

Rather than derail the thread with my own theories on Gann's techniques you can contact me as usual as you've been following my work for a few years. Fwiw, Gann, Hurst and Wyckoff were my major influences but many moons ago my own journey began and it's a never ending path of discoveries. So if any Gann, Hurst of Wyckoff students pop in and wonder what I am up to, it was a foundation for a new adventure.
 
Quote from Xspurt:


...Going back to the 2-day cycle, it's a bit muddy on the Dow but on the FTSE it is much clearer and calls for a move up on the daily to set up the suckers for the bigger move down and I expect to see this reflected in the Dow...

...However if the 2-daycycle runs as expected then after the push up it would be the best time since the lows last Aug for the top to set in.

So it is long from the intraday base, there's the opportunity for some sideways intraday action but the boss looks up on the daily to set up a bigger move down and possibly the top - that will be clearer after I see the way the move up develops.

1st Res on the FTSE daily is the 5850-5880 zone and then top.
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The FTSE was clearer, formed the top and led down as expected. You can see on the attached monthly charts that the FTSE monthly candle is still much weaker. The Dax has broken the prior month low and looks mean while the Dow has just fractionally broken the prior monthly low. All monthly charts are now pointing down but as we are mid month all that can change. The point is that as it stands now, Europe looks dangerous and the triggers have been hit with a down bias. Can it be reversed?

I said the Dow break usually has an ABC pattern before the real downside sets in. Weekly charts are getting ready for a very strong counter move.

The FTSE daily looks like it needs down a little more and I am looking for it to test the lows or close for a better read after this minor drop now. The position is one where multiple time cycles are in conflict and this happens whether we trade off the 1 min or the monthly charts.

It looks like a strong UP cycle is setting up but it is in the context of the monthly trying down as should be the case for the ABC. Sometimes it is very clear and sometimes you have to wait until closer to the set up. This is one of those times like the top when it got very close before I said it was the sucker top.

So I am looking for a better position for longs but the monthly bias can easily trash the market. My bias is still short and the 4hr wants down. I'd like to see closer to 12600 or at least the lows. If 12.600 is taken out I expect another 500 point drop.

In a nutshell, I want down for an up move into the real down move but if the supports fail the monthly chart will do a lot of damage. Obviously if we fail to get down and 1300 is taken out the weekly upside will most likely be in. If I get a chance I will update before the weekend.
 

Attachments

Quote from Xspurt:

the Dow break usually has an ABC pattern before the real downside sets in.

Weekly charts are getting ready for a very strong counter move.

It looks like a strong UP cycle is setting up

if we fail to get down and 13000 is taken out the weekly upside will most likely be in.
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So you were looking for a push lower to 12600 before an up move, and then the real down move.

In any case it looks like the weekly upside is in, so are you now on alert for the expected big down move?
 
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