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Simplicity in TA
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
just 4 fun the 1074 oct low to 1405 fri high is 331 pts,pie 1.1412 times the fib .618 is .7052...,7052 times 331 is 233.42 using the all time trendline and assumiong 1405 is res area... 1405 minus 233 is 1172 ..or 1074 plus 233 is 1307 .... those 2 points are trendline supports, a pullback with a political buyer for support would be 1307 ,the republicans pulling a goldman has always been our friend power move gets you the 1170 area,making a deal with Israel,they would never buy at the top,,,would like to know what maverick and kinggyppo have on there a up or a down analysis here
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X, I know you focus mainly on the Dow here but am I right to assume that you also look at the S&P when trading?
I have noticed there are situations where one index hits a level and another one doesn't quite get to it's corresponding level, or overshoots it. Just wondering if you would recommend people to keep an eye on both of them, or if it's better to only watch the specific index you plan to trade.
I have noticed there are situations where one index hits a level and another one doesn't quite get to it's corresponding level, or overshoots it. Just wondering if you would recommend people to keep an eye on both of them, or if it's better to only watch the specific index you plan to trade.
u can watch 3 or 4,spx and 30 yr bonds,eur/usd are all heavy volume so if one hits supp or resistance and turns the others often dont reach there s/r and turn early,or 1 hits its s/r and the others blow thru,the one that hit often doesnt turn or respect s/r for long..dj transports are also good to watch as that index is not arbed as much so less manipulation and it gives a hint of a false rally or selloff in the spx or dow,or vice versa,its easier to read its strength/weakness
X, today price gapped below the Dow wedge breakout line and then climbed back up to it.
Since the line is based on the daily chart and runs back to December, I didn't try to draw it at a slant. I took the advice of Achilles in the other thread and I estimated it to come in around 13182.80 today and drew it as a horizontal line on the intraday chart.
I tried to play that level intraday using YM, and ended up getting whipsawed a few times and finished 12 ticks in the red. Could you comment on how you would have traded it?
Since the line is based on the daily chart and runs back to December, I didn't try to draw it at a slant. I took the advice of Achilles in the other thread and I estimated it to come in around 13182.80 today and drew it as a horizontal line on the intraday chart.
I tried to play that level intraday using YM, and ended up getting whipsawed a few times and finished 12 ticks in the red. Could you comment on how you would have traded it?
Quote from dv4632:
X, I know you focus mainly on the Dow here but am I right to assume that you also look at the S&P when trading?
I have noticed there are situations where one index hits a level and another one doesn't quite get to it's corresponding level, or overshoots it. Just wondering if you would recommend people to keep an eye on both of them, or if it's better to only watch the specific index you plan to trade.
Earlier in the thread I explained that to do a proper job intermarket analysis should be done but because of personal time restrictions I am somewhat skimming the analysis here.
You will find on occasions I have posted charts of the Transports, S&P and FTSE and all of these should be referenced. In the old days it was London, New York & Tokyo that were the key centers but Japan is no longer the influence it once was.
You should be able to do well trading off the chart you trade but you'll do better cross referencing it with others.
Quote from dv4632:
X, today price gapped below the Dow wedge breakout line and then climbed back up to it.
Since the line is based on the daily chart and runs back to December, I didn't try to draw it at a slant. I took the advice of Achilles in the other thread and I estimated it to come in around 13182.80 today and drew it as a horizontal line on the intraday chart.
I tried to play that level intraday using YM, and ended up getting whipsawed a few times and finished 12 ticks in the red. Could you comment on how you would have traded it?
What time frame did you use? Over the weekend I said I was bearish, would be looking for a short and even said how I thought it would play out and where to enter.
I expected the 60m to dip, move up and then the real short entry would set up, and that's what we got. I'll post the chart and quote next. Let me know if that clears it up for you.
Quote from Xspurt:
The Dow looks bullish here popping out of the wedge but I want to look for a short as I think this is as real as the FTSE's break. Two weeks back I said I wanted short we got 200+ drop in a day into the wedge base with a clear reversal set up...
...The Dow doesn't show any resistance that I can see in a quick analysis so I am using the FTSE as a guide...
... The 60m pattern usually has a drop, pullback and then the real move but this is a less reliable read over the weekend when there is a bigger chance of a gap opening.
The selling volume on Friday was very heavy and I like the look of that.
As expected (lol, yes I'm using that expression again) the Dow 60m completed it's 60m down cycle, popped up to double top with a screamer short signal that I have explained a number of times in the past.
I have marked the scalping S&R levels and the current down trend line. As I said I prefer this kind of prediction Mon to Thur but it often turns out good for the weekend too, as was the case here.
Note the screamer volume on the top and doji and how the green volume bars died as the final up wave progressed into the double top.
DV I hope this answers a few questions.