Simplicity in TA

Quote from rhk:

Xspurt... Tony plummer has a kind of cycle clock... It shows that we are moving into an inflationary "climate"..
He also uses some of the cycles u have mentioned..

do u think this clock is a good way to represent the influence of the longer cycles..??? is it congruent with your views..??

http://helmsman-economics.com/economiccycles.html
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Yes this is an excellent way to see how the various linear time cycles fit together and grasp the effect of these waves on the global economy.

I think what I do is more refined because as I see it the acceptable +/- deviation is due to the effects of shorter cycles working on the dominant cycle. Without understanding the impact of several conflicting shorter cycles on the dominant cycle you are left with too wide a turning point zone for traders to be able to take advantage of the turning points.

The result is that almost all conclude cycle analysis works best on a longer time frame but I found it to be excellent even below 1 minute. The expected down move in the FTSE with the Dow 4hr bounce is an example of these conflicts and resolution.

Helmsman is giving the trader a crash course on how to fit the pieces together where most economists get confused.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

So the FTSE behaved as I expected with a bear signal and normally that would be good enough for the short on the Dow at this resistance level, except I was expecting the Dow would have a bounce because the 4 hr chart would be over sold.


The Dow followed the FTSE into the 4 hr zone and then bounced - all as expected.
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Are u able to give me some clues as to how u defined "oversold" on the 4hr chart.... Eyeballing the 4 hr chart it only had 3 impulse bars down... thou each bar was bigger..?? I would never have guessed that the 4hr was o/sold ..and would hold the mkt up..

Thks
 
Quote from Xspurt:

I think this crash will result in a new financial world order that will enjoy an enthusiastic bull rally that may be the best ever, only to precede the biggest crash ever.
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So it's this sequence: Crash -> Big Bull -> Biggest Crash Ever.

Just to confirm is the first crash is the one you think could take out the 2009 lows? Then after that is the bull rally that may be the best ever. Then the biggest crash ever?

Or is this first crash the H&S from the FTSE... followed by the big bull rally from the H&S target or thereabouts.... followed by the biggest crash ever that takes out the 2009 lows.

Just trying to mentally map this out like you say here....

I like to map out the day in advance as to where PA should go and then narrow it down to a gameplan
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Ditto on rhk's question about oversold as well. Thanks very much.
 
Quote from rhk:

Are u able to give me some clues as to how u defined "oversold" on the 4hr chart.... Eyeballing the 4 hr chart it only had 3 impulse bars down... thou each bar was bigger..?? I would never have guessed that the 4hr was o/sold ..and would hold the mkt up..

Thks
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Not easily as it is my own proprietary cycle work and that is advanced level trading - a bit beyond what I am trying to do here. But it is not just the chart reading, it is experience as well that comes into the mix.

This is an old play, taking the Dow down on London weakness and when London closes running it back up to take out the stops. If we had a wide bar down from London then the move has too much momentum, but as it stood it looked like the lower PA on the Dow would set up a bounce.

Projecting the 4 hour chart over the W/e is fraught with dangers because gap openings are more likely on underlying stocks. However this one looked pretty solid hence my expectation.

Like I said, to be on top of this one requires good intraday skills as well as long term PA reading.
 
Quote from dv4632:

So it's this sequence: Crash -> Big Bull -> Biggest Crash Ever.

Just to confirm is the first crash is the one you think could take out the 2009 lows? Then after that is the bull rally that may be the best ever. Then the biggest crash ever?

Or is this first crash the H&S from the FTSE... followed by the big bull rally from the H&S target or thereabouts.... followed by the biggest crash ever that takes out the 2009 lows.

Just trying to mentally map this out like you say here....




Ditto on rhk's question about oversold as well. Thanks very much.
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2009 lows out first leading us into war, global depression and the establishment of the New World Order bringing about the greatest bull run and then grand supercycle crash.

Please understand my earlier comments that every day I call the market intraday yet often follow that with a counter trend trade. A projection has to be self adjusting if it is to have any value rather than being treated as written in stone. The purpose is to understand the market structure so as to ride the big moves and scalp the small ones but sometimes the expected small one develops legs and alters the bigger projection.

The vast majority of times the projection holds but every move is treated as a possible game changer. Always trade what you see and never fall in love with a trade or an expectation.
 
Hi FoN, you're cheating, not reading the thread. To be brief, it's hard to crash an election year but I think there are too many events that are beyond governmental control if even one of them digs in.

For that reason I think it will be a whippy year and one of them will kill the market in 2012.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

Hi FoN, you're cheating, not reading the thread. To be brief, it's hard to crash an election year but I think there are too many events that are beyond governmental control if even one of them digs in.

For that reason I think it will be a whippy year and one of them will kill the market in 2012.
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Not in the least, read thread beginning to end, since you modify expectactions based on new data and/or price I asked to see if there were any major changes.

Basically you are saying, dont bet the farm on the long side for too long or too strong.
 
Quote from Xspurt, on Monday nite:

What would negate that analysis would be a big move on the FTSE resulting in a steam roller effect on the Dow intraday charts. This is why I was writing the Dow needed to be traded intraday on this signal.
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Ok, Tuesday's FTSE action was not a big move. Tried to go up but couldn't hold it and ended up closing near it's lows with an inverted hammer candle.

So the short still looks good, right?

Thanks again.
 
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