Simplicity in TA
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
I consider market sentiment to have changed from bullish in a bear context to high risk. The FTSE is weaker than the Dow and often leads the way down so the close is important. London is on a breakout bar, long over the top and short below the last bar.
The Dow offers some hope on the 4 hr chart for a bounce but needs a bit lower on Monday and the value of that depends on how badly London reacts.
This is one where I would want to trade intraday but as I don't expect to get a chance to comment on that I will leave it as hoist the red flag time.
Aggressive traders would position intraday. There is the potential for a severe reaction on London and waiting for and EOD close confirmation at times like this misses a lot of points. I am not saying there will be a big move: I am saying there is the potential for a big move or just the start of a considerable move down.
If we break up over the last bar then we stay long as there is resistance not far above and we may get a false break.
The Dow offers some hope on the 4 hr chart for a bounce but needs a bit lower on Monday and the value of that depends on how badly London reacts.
This is one where I would want to trade intraday but as I don't expect to get a chance to comment on that I will leave it as hoist the red flag time.
Aggressive traders would position intraday. There is the potential for a severe reaction on London and waiting for and EOD close confirmation at times like this misses a lot of points. I am not saying there will be a big move: I am saying there is the potential for a big move or just the start of a considerable move down.
If we break up over the last bar then we stay long as there is resistance not far above and we may get a false break.
Thanks for all the info, Xspurt.
The cycles stuff is interesting and I had investigated Hurst at one point but it was too far over my head to really get anywhere with.
The few cycles articles I have read are by those who believe in the alternating 15-20 yr bull/bear cycles and they suggest that in several years time the next major bull will emerge and take markets to many new all-time highs. However you are suggesting that the US markets highs of 2000 and 2007 are akin to the Nikkei highs of the 1980's and not likely to be challenged any time soon, or ever.
What do you suggest that risk-averse longer term investors put their money in going forward, since equities are looking bad for the next few years or more. Or should they just sit in cash?
The cycles stuff is interesting and I had investigated Hurst at one point but it was too far over my head to really get anywhere with.
The few cycles articles I have read are by those who believe in the alternating 15-20 yr bull/bear cycles and they suggest that in several years time the next major bull will emerge and take markets to many new all-time highs. However you are suggesting that the US markets highs of 2000 and 2007 are akin to the Nikkei highs of the 1980's and not likely to be challenged any time soon, or ever.
What do you suggest that risk-averse longer term investors put their money in going forward, since equities are looking bad for the next few years or more. Or should they just sit in cash?
Xspurt... Tony plummer has a kind of cycle clock... It shows that we are moving into an inflationary "climate"..
He also uses some of the cycles u have mentioned..
do u think this clock is a good way to represent the influence of the longer cycles..??? is it congruent with your views..??
http://helmsman-economics.com/economiccycles.html
He also uses some of the cycles u have mentioned..
do u think this clock is a good way to represent the influence of the longer cycles..??? is it congruent with your views..??
http://helmsman-economics.com/economiccycles.html
So the FTSE behaved as I expected with a bear signal and normally that would be good enough for the short on the Dow at this resistance level, except I was expecting the Dow would have a bounce because the 4 hr chart would be over sold.
What would negate that analysis would be a big move on the FTSE resulting in a steam roller effect on the Dow intraday charts. This is why I was writing the Dow needed to be traded intraday on this signal.
The Dow followed the FTSE into the 4 hr zone and then bounced - all as expected.