Xspurt - are you still super bearish and looking for a test of 2009 lows?
Simplicity in TA
- Thread starter Xspurt
- Start date
I was super bullish on the long run up when the Fed was pumping the system, super bearish at the top, bullish at the lows but in a bear context for this current move up and the normal pattern is for the bear to return.
Bear patterns are much more difficult to map in advance because they can take 14 different shapes. The usual types offers continual hope for the longs and then crushes them, but with the overwhelming size and number of issues the world faces this year the potential is there for a sharp move down.
For example, war can become very bullish after the initial shock and I think WMD's in the Mid East are a real threat with Syria in the state it is in.
Here's my position...
1) I want to see if the first 5 to 7 trade days gives any clues for the year and then weigh that up on time and price
2) I don't like being bearish if market sentiment is bearish as the herd instinct is invariably wrong. Let's see how this settles very soon
3) I don't have any major bear sell signals yet
4) This is a bear pattern but in an election year they usually manipulate the market. A crash happens only when all hell breaks lose and there sure are enough ingredients for that to happen.
So I think 2012 will be a year like no other with the potential for super bear moves and powerful bull swings inside it. If sentiment is bullish I will look for a bear set up and vise versa.
So I am major bearish looking for confirmation to end my minor bullish sentiment and if I don't get that I will continue to play the long side.
If I get a major bear set up then the pattern looks bad and should break the lows.
So far I have been bang on with my expectations but always trade the market and not the prediction, trade against major peaks in sentiment and expect major news events.
Thanks, it helps me understand the way you think.
FoN
My pleasure FoN.
The global economy could withstand widespread disruption from a natural disaster or attack by militants for only a week as governments and businesses are not sufficiently prepared to deal with unexpected events, a report by a respected think-tank said.
Events such as the 2010 volcanic ash cloud, which grounded flights in Europe, Japan's earthquake and tsunami and Thailand's floods last year, have showed that key sectors and businesses can be severely affected if disruption to production or transport goes on for more than a week.
"One week seems to be the maximum tolerance of the 'just-in-time' global economy," said the report by Chatham House, the London-based policy institute for international affairs.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45899109
As I mentioned, Gann said the first 5 to 7 trading days of the year often suggests how the year will develop. One up day and then sideways suggests up in the early part and then sideways.
Another rule of thumb is January sets the tone for the year. If Jan. ends up, we have a bullish year or vv. This has worked perfectly for decades so let's compare the end of the month with Gann's theory.
As I wrote, this is likely to be a momentous year for throwing everything including the kitchen sink into the mix and on that note I forgot to add sun flares as having the possibility to seriously damage buy and hold investment strategies.
Back to the immediate Dow. Still no sell signal and stuck on resistance with cracks appearing. The impact of time on a flat market is initially to weaken it and then the cycle sine wave hits the dip and re-energizes the PA. Right now it is in the weakening phase and about the mid point meaning PA can play catch up and move down sharpish. It won't take long for the daily cycle to bottom and the pressure turns up on the daily chart so if we are still clinging on to the resistance we can push up.
Still long and stops tightened.
Didn't get much in-depth work done as mum was in hospital with the big C so it might affect my posting for a while.
Another rule of thumb is January sets the tone for the year. If Jan. ends up, we have a bullish year or vv. This has worked perfectly for decades so let's compare the end of the month with Gann's theory.
As I wrote, this is likely to be a momentous year for throwing everything including the kitchen sink into the mix and on that note I forgot to add sun flares as having the possibility to seriously damage buy and hold investment strategies.
Back to the immediate Dow. Still no sell signal and stuck on resistance with cracks appearing. The impact of time on a flat market is initially to weaken it and then the cycle sine wave hits the dip and re-energizes the PA. Right now it is in the weakening phase and about the mid point meaning PA can play catch up and move down sharpish. It won't take long for the daily cycle to bottom and the pressure turns up on the daily chart so if we are still clinging on to the resistance we can push up.
Still long and stops tightened.
Didn't get much in-depth work done as mum was in hospital with the big C so it might affect my posting for a while.
Xspurt, could you show what a cycle is on your chart?
Thank you.
Thank you.