Simplicity in TA

Hey X

This thread of yours is golden Sir….


Also appears you’ve found resolution to that nagging question you had a few months back… :)

RN
 
The hourly chart shows a lot of effort from the shorts with nothing to show for it and is reacting strongly to the B/o level. The 4 hr chart is a beauty in PA terms with a bull/bear signal. The weekly is looking like a rocket ready for blast off - big tail on support and huge volume.

I expect the move up to continue with the 4hr being the decider. Watch out for a news event that turns everything on its head but for now it's up, up and away.
 

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Quote from Redneck:

Hey X

This thread of yours is golden Sir….


Also appears you’ve found resolution to that nagging question you had a few months back… :)

RN
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Hey RN, good to see you again and tx. Yeah, it was unbelievably easy the way it unfolded. When it's that obvious you have to ask, is it that obvious lol.
 
KEEPING ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MARKET

It is important to look at the global markets when something major is happening to see how others are responding. This used to be done to check global sentiment but now computer trading means moves are instantly related to one another.

Here is the FTSE and it shows a cleaner picture of strength. This move tends to have most power after a pull back as indicated. Again it needs careful reading as it develops because in a weak market wave C will fail and the trap door opens.

My guesstimation expectation is that we are in a sucker rally with new lows ahead - but what if I am wrong and this is the next phase of the bull market climbing a wall of worry?

It doesn't matter because I am not trading the expectation. All I am doing is using TA to work out what is most likely to happen next, looking for the signals to confirm and trading the earliest opportunity. Expert TA allows the trader to see what is likely to come next, get in before the herd at the best price with the lowest risk and respond to information that requires a reversal when other methods leave commentators baffled, traders scared and investors hoping for the best.

Hope is a great breakfast but a terrible supper :)
 

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Quote from Xspurt:

I'll cover a few things I didn't have time to earlier. When is a Bear Engulfing a major BUY or a Bull Engulfing a major SELL signal?

Let's take a Bear Engulfing BUY signal as an example. PA reaches a support level and there is fear in the market. Salvation: it looks like buyers have come in with volume on a big green candle but then hopes seem dashed when next day there is a big red engulfer on heavy volume and talk is of a hard move down.

This is the last throw of the dice for the bears and earlier in the thread you can see how and why I was bullish intraday before this signal completed.

(I am not a perfectionist: I am looking to read the market sentiment and in this example the red engulfer is technically not an engulfer by the width of little more than a trend line and that's good enough for me.)

Note how close we are to the 0.38 fib and how volume worked out as expected confirming the move up. Also note volume level is back to normal.
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Thanks for the posts X!
I've got a question though.

On 8/4 on the daily chart you posted there's a big bear candle with good volume at a support level. Why wouldn't this also be a buy signal? Instead, the next day was a doji followed by another big push down. What is the difference between 8/4 and 8/9? Why was 8/5 a doji instead of a buy signal?
 

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Quote from jack411:

Thanks for the posts X!
I've got a question though.

On 8/4 on the daily chart you posted there's a big bear candle with good volume at a support level. Why wouldn't this also be a buy signal? Instead, the next day was a doji followed by another big push down. What is the difference between 8/4 and 8/9? Why was 8/5 a doji instead of a buy signal?
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There's a number of reasons...

1. Someone else PM'd me asking what action should be taken and I said the bullet was fired from the gun and now there is no action to be taken other than get out of the way and let the profits build until the next signal.

2. I posted here there was air for the Dow to fall through so I went to the SPX to look for any earlier support and I posted it. When PA reached that support there was a 5 min test that was tradable. Then smart money started dumping it and I said the market was playing with fire because there was so much air below. As soon as that broke I returned to the Dow support I had called at 10,800

3. I am looking for signal clusters at supports rather than a potential signal floating in space so as much as possible I want to look left. That bear red was thru my support and the following doji/hammer was under the support. It was an expected failure for me so I was not drawn in to looking for a reversal there.

4. That would have been a buy signal (without support) if the high of the green candle was taken out. However it was too early for me to look for a real move up yet as I reasoned the big buyers were waiting for confirmed support, potentially around 10,800
 
Quote from Xspurt:

Nimble trading means getting in at the earliest sign of buying and reversing or exiting at the earliest sign of trouble. Longs are well into profit now and we are approaching the major1st Fib resistance level having got the follow through I expected.

Waiting for the same sense of security that the herd is looking for is exactly when the smart money may be looking to sell out.
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Thanks for the advice!:)

And yes, follow through imo wouldn't be ANY blanket of security in this market.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

KEEPING ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MARKET

It is important to look at the global markets when something major is happening to see how others are responding. This used to be done to check global sentiment but now computer trading means moves are instantly related to one another.

Here is the FTSE and it shows a cleaner picture of strength. This move tends to have most power after a pull back as indicated. Again it needs careful reading as it develops because in a weak market wave C will fail and the trap door opens.

My guesstimation expectation is that we are in a sucker rally with new lows ahead - but what if I am wrong and this is the next phase of the bull market climbing a wall of worry?

It doesn't matter because I am not trading the expectation. All I am doing is using TA to work out what is most likely to happen next, looking for the signals to confirm and trading the earliest opportunity. Expert TA allows the trader to see what is likely to come next, get in before the herd at the best price with the lowest risk and respond to information that requires a reversal when other methods leave commentators baffled, traders scared and investors hoping for the best.

Hope is a great breakfast but a terrible supper :)
More...

I hope you'll have me write the forward in your book if you'd write one.:)
 
While confusion reigned in the market simple (but skilled) TA called both the top and this low in advance and the current move up is and working longs perfectly as expected.

The FTSE opens in a few hours and it had a narrow day (warning) yesterday closing into weekly resistance.

The Dow is close to daily resistance and as I said this move tends to develop in an ABC (this is A) with C being more powerful. There is an exception to C being more powerful and that is when there is a bad news event that drives PA down or there is a weak failed C because the overall market is weak and it spells even worse news to the downside.

As the FTSE is on weekly resistance it needs careful watching. However the Dow weekly looks much stronger as far as S&R gaps are concerned.

The daily and weekly charts on the Dow unfolded exactly as I predicted with a strong looking reversal on good support with heavy volume.

So what's next? I expect a minor wave B down to kick in soon and the FTSE may lead this today or tomorrow. Provided we don't hit bad news this will be followed with a completion Wave C up.

I am not taking an Elliot Wave trade, it just happens to be unfolding in that shape. This is more traditional pattern TA with a bit of inside volume and wave reading. Note how the market rises on falling volume because as I said the smart money had hit the market hard and now the weak hands are coming in.

In summary: looks close to a reversal before a bigger thrust up
 

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Quote from Xspurt:

While confusion reigned in the market simple (but skilled) TA called both the top and this low in advance and the current move up is and working longs perfectly as expected.

The FTSE opens in a few hours and it had a narrow day (warning) yesterday closing into weekly resistance.

The Dow is close to daily resistance and as I said this move tends to develop in an ABC (this is A) with C being more powerful. There is an exception to C being more powerful and that is when there is a bad news event that drives PA down or there is a weak failed C because the overall market is weak and it spells even worse news to the downside.

As the FTSE is on weekly resistance it needs careful watching. However the Dow weekly looks much stronger as far as S&R gaps are concerned.

The daily and weekly charts on the Dow unfolded exactly as I predicted with a strong looking reversal on good support with heavy volume.

So what's next? I expect a minor wave B down to kick in soon and the FTSE may lead this today or tomorrow. Provided we don't hit bad news this will be followed with a completion Wave C up.

I am not taking an Elliot Wave trade, it just happens to be unfolding in that shape. This is more traditional pattern TA with a bit of inside volume and wave reading. Note how the market rises on falling volume because as I said the smart money had hit the market hard and now the weak hands are coming in.

In summary: looks close to a reversal before a bigger thrust up
More...

Hi hughrobi.

I must say that if you trade 10% of what you write, you must own the CME and all the Central Banks already. Congratulations!.
 
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