Simplicity in TA

Xspurt,

so its up or down, but you are slightly inclined towards down

if it goes up you were right

if it goes down you were right

this is the ambiguity that confuses me with the "as I mentioned"

not trying to look for an argument, just expressing the indecision as i read

tell you what, when you are convinced, that would be a good time to post :D
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

Unbroken trendlines are unreliable, broken ones are golden, now, not all lines are or were trendlines, it's important to make that distinction.
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I like to spot developing patterns before they have completed by using old patterns to confirm them.

I mostly use tools to confirm tools. I'm also a very big fan of using failures or fakeouts to confirm support or resistance failing holding or breaking in other patterns. Like to see a pattern failure allowing me to confirm an opposite one developing, things of that nature.
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Interesting... I'll have to dig into this and come back with some questions.
 
Quote from FreakofNature:

Xspurt,

so its up or down, but you are slightly inclined towards down

if it goes up you were right

if it goes down you were right

this is the ambiguity that confuses me with the "as I mentioned"

not trying to look for an argument, just expressing the indecision as i read

tell you what, when you are convinced, that would be a good time to post :D
More...
best to be on the fence and wait for setups,recognizing neutral to down or up ,precedes a setup,long or short term,using the word "I",taints the read with an ego which is not part of the picture,market doesn't have one,ours is ever present and must be watched like a pot on the stove,not an insult,just a human condition like avg life span..etc
 
To make it even MORE clear...

1)We have a great W1 & W2 Elliot and I'm looking to see if W3 confirms.

2) 12700 is the W3 confirmation for Elliot and would be very bearish

3) There is a very strong weekly up cycle that yes, can turn PA up, but if 12700 is broken with strength the likelihood is the weekly will get run over and the monthly chart will close bearish meaning more down.

4) That means if there is a move down in the daily but it lacks power then the weekly is going to reverse hard and swamp it, but if the daily moves down hard it is more likely the weekly will be swamped. It takes a powerful move down to prevent a powerful move up so you can read by the action who is going to win out.

5) Intraday 12975 is a great trigger point and especially if it is taken out in the 1st 10 mins.

6) Use the TL on the 2hr to keep short. Breaking this makes the downside less likely and I would look for a double top on the 2hr to form just above the TL break. If that prior intraday high is taken out then the downside is unlikely and I would need to review the structures.

7) My expectation is daily downside action and yes, it is in the context of weekly UP energy and monthly DOWN energy that sets up a tug of war for an important weekly and end of month close.

8) However there are clear intraday breaks, daily break points and the market tells us its intent by the way it attacks these level as well as the break of these levels.

8) Some will see multiple time frame conflicts as too hard to decipher and think I am saying nothing. Others will learn how to trade big TF chop and read the implications of a trigger point break for a guide to hold the swing.

9) If we get a break of 12700 look at the 2hr chart for the 3rd wave of the move as it is likely to be the biggest.

Finally, I have been very clear about prior moves and called them well in advance. The market is not always so clean, clear and easy because it is natural for cycles to get into a conflict from time to time. This is a very major conflict that will determine if we move into crash territory.

The good thing about this conflict is the timing - close to the end of the month so we have a good chance of resolution that gives a big read for a big move down.

I understand that if you can't make MTF work and read INTO the conflicts then what I say is gibberish. If you are learning to read MTF then it makes sense and gives lots of clear tips.

As I have said before, it is not just what PA does, but when it does it and how it does it that gives the clues. I have given wave structure and S&R implications for intraday and daily, the type of PA move that is important, volume indications and the converging to time. Loads of clues that will combine to make sense or be more gibberish.

If you think this is an ego trip that is your business. My business is reading the markets and trying to help those who like my work. If you don't like it when others clearly do and some have benefited over several years, save yourself the time and upset by going elsewhere as you either get it or you don't..
 
Quote from ammo:

using the word "I",taints the read with an ego which is not part of the picture,market doesn't have one,ours is ever present and must be watched like a pot on the stove,not an insult,just a human condition like avg life span..etc
More...

How very wrong you are in many respects.

I call the markets in advance. I stick my neck out. It's how I trade.

I have the courage of my convictions and lay it on the line.

I explain what I do up to a point as time is an obvious limitation.

When I get it right, and the record shows that is almost all the time, I have every right to say, "As I mentioned", or "As I expected". To do anything else would be missing the opportunity to link to the next move.

If you interpret this as ego you have every right to do so for indeed it is ego, but your inference is way off. For me it is simply connecting the points of logic that I, yes "I" put in print.

Contrary to your thinking, the market is stuffed full of ego. One aspect is called greed and fear and these egos scream at the unwary all the time. It is listening to either of these driving forces that causes error.

But there is another much more important ego for all great traders have big egos - it goes with the will to win and the know-how based on years of paying the market dues.

Thus far from having no place in the market, a good trader must have a big ego for he must have total confidence in what he does. However the difference is how he masters that ego. If there is exuberance at winning a trade there will be depression at losing and such uncontrolled responses are destructive.

A quiet, controlled ego is one of the greatest assets for traders who know what they are doing. If you are watching your ego like a pot on a stove, something is amiss. It is because of the lack of an ego and a frightened inner man that traders run in terror looking for psychology books to give them the balls to pull the trigger.

So don't tell me ego is not part of the picture: it IS the picture! Ego buys close to the highs and sells at the lows and tells the world why it is correct and this is where I make my killing. But a trader must have a completely different ego and these two egos do battle in the market place - that is how it is.

I thank God I have the guts and belief in what I do. I paid my price and I fear nothing in the market. Yet I consider myself stupid and slow to learn, but there is a verse in the Bible that says, "You train my hands for battle and my fingers for war" Ps.18:34. It was written by a man who as a lad fought Goliath.

He had both ego and big balls for the fight, but that was not pride, for he knew where his strength came from.

Think about it (Selah!)
 
mr market has the ecb,imf and the fed on their side ,thru electronic clearing, they have everyones position,time of trade, whether that acct was long,short or flat at time of trade,net long or short of all open interest in each stock,option,bond,currency and all derivatives, computer programs, mathematical equations to exploit this data,separation of data from major banks to the 1 lot trader,facts on top of facts on top of facts,tons of inside information, no need for the market to have an ego...our job is to glean this data from a major disadvantage and make trades without getting picked off,the ego whether it's comfortable being right all the time or wrong all the time,laughing or crying, or somewhere in between,is a backpack, a weight, that needs to be removed while trading so as not to diminish the clarity of ones view of the landscape ahead...just the facts jack...which you(xspurt) do a very good job of deciphering
 
One problem I sometimes have with this is too many lines. Too often lately I come up with a line that makes it seem like I'll be buying into resistance or shorting into support and talk myself out of a trade.

Maybe I just am not skilled enough at reading market pressure and so I'm not able to judge when to ignore a potential S/R level and go with the flow. Or maybe it's just a mind problem where my ego obsesses over times where I talk myself out of a winning trade, but glosses over the times I talk myself out of what would have been a losing trade.

For example my read was to short just after the open, but I didn't because it seemed like shorting into support of the blue line. Obviously, in hindsight it was the wrong call. But at the time of the trade... it seemed like shorting into support. Should I have ignored that line?

Also wanted to ask if the purple triangle pattern is valid. I wasn't watching the markets at the time but it looks like a short entry would have triggered around 14:00 on that chart.
 

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You need experience. you need to learn what matters, and what happens when what matters fails.

Learn about backtests, learn about confluence, learn about technical damage and backtest shoulder creation.

In the meantime something very simple.

A higher low concept....

<continues...>
 

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