Simplicity in TA

Quote from themickey:

Getting back to the subject regarding multiple time frames, personally I think there is no merit in attempting to trade by observing multiple time frames.
KISS is the answer, all the super analysing using triangles, indicators, cycles, time frames blahblah etc is just adding more trading noise to the equation.
Everyone to their own but in my opinion price and price alone is king with maybe a small amount of volume analysis.
Multiple tiime frames sounds sophisticated, but like much of T/A it's baloney, it doesn't work with any real results.
If one is trading a 30 minute pattern, it doesn't matter in my opinion whether for example the weekly or monthly trend is up or down.
You cannot predict price, all one can do is react to price, looking at T/A tea leaves including BS multiple time frames leads to over analysing and getting it wrong 50% of the time.
The deeper the analysis, the harder and more confusing trading becomes.
Just my opinion...5c worth.
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Thanks for the post and whatever works for you might be good enough for you, but not good enough for others. My last post gives an example of multiple time frames calling the action in advance. In fact just about everything I have posted in this thread is about calling future price action and I think I have proved the point.

Three weeks back I said the weekly chart was overheated but there was plenty of gas in the monthly charts setting up a conflict that would result in PA dithering or in other words choppy sideways action.

That is exactly what we got and this is the same principle that holds good for the 1 min time frame as it does for the monthly time frame. The effort required to look at three charts is something I found the mental strength to do so I suppose for me it still qualifies as KISS ;)

At the time of my last post the upside looked unstoppable but suddenly there was bad news that made the downside look a dead cert. Multiple time frame analysis called for sideways movement and it gives a great advantage for knowing the best odds for playing the market. In a nutshell, that is the power of MTF.
 

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Quote from themickey:

Getting back to the subject regarding multiple time frames, personally I think there is no merit in attempting to trade by observing multiple time frames.
KISS is the answer, all the super analysing using triangles, indicators, cycles, time frames blahblah etc is just adding more trading noise to the equation.
Everyone to their own but in my opinion price and price alone is king with maybe a small amount of volume analysis.
Multiple tiime frames sounds sophisticated, but like much of T/A it's baloney, it doesn't work with any real results.
If one is trading a 30 minute pattern, it doesn't matter in my opinion whether for example the weekly or monthly trend is up or down.
You cannot predict price, all one can do is react to price, looking at T/A tea leaves including BS multiple time frames leads to over analysing and getting it wrong 50% of the time.
The deeper the analysis, the harder and more confusing trading becomes.
Just my opinion...5c worth.
More...
try using multiple markets,djt,eur,es,nq,appl or,goog or xom watch the s/r in all as a hearts hand,see whats been played,who's got steam,who's a stem,who hit s/r,they will all line up together for some great tells or they won't for some great tells,follow the money
 
Quote from ammo:

try using multiple markets,djt,eur,es,nq,appl or,goog or xom watch the s/r in all as a hearts hand,see whats been played,who's got steam,who's a stem,who hit s/r,they will all line up together for some great tells or they won't for some great tells,follow the money
More...

Thanks ammo - this is something I mentioned in an early post in this thread. If you want to do serious analysis then you need to do intra and inter market analysis to get a much more complete view of the forces at work in the market.

For the sake of time and simplicity I have demonstrated how reading one market well can still do a pretty good job.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

Thanks ammo - this is something I mentioned in an early post in this thread. If you want to do serious analysis then you need to do intra and inter market analysis to get a much more complete view of the forces at work in the market.

For the sake of time and simplicity I have demonstrated how reading one market well can still do a pretty good job.
More...
looked at some of your stuff and i saw scenarios where it could do this or that but am not able to predict,just narrow it down to if this,then likely this,watching several,changing from 1 screen to the next on a laptop,keeps you busy,interested,helps knock out the day,and puts you in the market searching for multiple setups,vs on the sidelines
 
Quote from ammo:

looked at some of your stuff and i saw scenarios where it could do this or that but am not able to predict,just narrow it down to if this,then likely this,watching several,changing from 1 screen to the next on a laptop,keeps you busy,interested,helps knock out the day,and puts you in the market searching for multiple setups,vs on the sidelines
More...

At the end of the day when we take a position in the market we are predicting a move in our favor and the more experience we have the greater that conviction becomes. Though is an immediate move that is being predicted, it is just a step away from what I do for longer term forecasts.

I still have to get the at-hand signal to confirm my expectations and when it gives the green light I have a better context to work in.
 
i think your term conviction in place of prediction is wise,i think it's dangerous to think you can predict,its an odds in your favor but not certain idea
 
Quote from ammo:

i think your term conviction in place of prediction is wise,i think it's dangerous to think you can predict,its an odds in your favor but not certain idea
More...

Prediction doesn't necessarily mean certainty. There is also prediction based on probability You predict that event E will happen with probability P. This is equivalent to a forecast.

Prediction with 100% certainty is not a prediction any longer but it is related to precognition:

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/...edict-market-moves-by-seeing-into-the-future/
 
Quote from goodgoing:

Prediction doesn't necessarily mean certainty. There is also prediction based on probability You predict that event E will happen with probability P. This is equivalent to a forecast.

Prediction with 100% certainty is not a prediction any longer but it is related to precognition:

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/...edict-market-moves-by-seeing-into-the-future/
More...
ability to predict ,would only be an ability if the result was always the same as the prediction,until then its a lucky guess, ability to drive a car...if the result was always, able to drive a car
 
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