You are not likely to make anything on bonds--they are just for ballast in this kind of buy and hold scenario. What bonds have done in the last 20 years is unlikely to be repeated.
OK to have 30% or 40% or 50% bonds if you are old, but at age 30, I would not be owning any bonds. At that age, I would maybe do 90/10 or 85/15 stocks/cash. I would mix up the stocks (some international and emerging markets and significant exposure to small caps) and would try to find a way to tilt toward value. Even an equal-weighted portfolio of S&P 5 is superior to cap-weighted SPY. Point is, you can find some mix that's better than SPY, and it should not too expensive if you use Vanguard ETFs and don't rebalance excessively.
HOWEVER, a buy and hold portfolio only works if you truly buy and hold. Most people repeatedly sell at the bottom and buy near the top. Gotta set some rules for allocation, frequency of rebalancing, and time during which you will stay the course, then slavishly follow them.
OK to have 30% or 40% or 50% bonds if you are old, but at age 30, I would not be owning any bonds. At that age, I would maybe do 90/10 or 85/15 stocks/cash. I would mix up the stocks (some international and emerging markets and significant exposure to small caps) and would try to find a way to tilt toward value. Even an equal-weighted portfolio of S&P 5 is superior to cap-weighted SPY. Point is, you can find some mix that's better than SPY, and it should not too expensive if you use Vanguard ETFs and don't rebalance excessively.
HOWEVER, a buy and hold portfolio only works if you truly buy and hold. Most people repeatedly sell at the bottom and buy near the top. Gotta set some rules for allocation, frequency of rebalancing, and time during which you will stay the course, then slavishly follow them.
