Simple system performance

[DTB2]

Well, that rather "begs the question", I think? Doubtless there's a question of whether it requires a market behaving in a particular way, that might turn out not to be such a typical way, and this kind of consideration? Have you backtested it on different samples from different years, for example?

But it would be churlish not to comment that it does sound very encouraging indeed.

I have not backtested it from different periods, I do not have the data and as indicated I backtested it manually. A hired backtest would interest me as well, how does one determine if a 3rd party did it correctly though?
I did live through those periods and was on the wrong side more often than not. So, I decided to go against convention and have the stop bigger than my target and see what happens.

That's where I am now.

I also don't think that more hindsight (backtesting) will necessarily increase the likelihood of success going forward but I'm not sure.

I will increase contract size organically as we go along as it appears to be "The" setup I've been seeking for a long time. One that will consistently make substantial points w/o demoralizing drawdown.

Thanks for the discourse, I appreciate it very much.

 

[sysdevel99]

Thank you all.

The setup goes long or short or no entry based on my long observations of how ES behaves.

1.75 target /3.25 stop

2 losers in a row max.

20+ winners in a row.

I plan to ramp up contracts trade based on the setup's returns. When it gains enough profit to add another contract I will and so on.

My question is do I add capital or let it grow organically? Assuming of course that this is an accurate indication of what the setup will do.

Additionally, in order to have such long winning runs, the setup must be significantly better than 50/50 or I happen to be in a run of historic odds.

I hope you are correct and this is a real setup and not a coding/slippeage error - I personally have never found a setup with a 1:2 target/stop that produces above 90% winners, that alone is spectacular.
Since your stop is very tight I'd do the following
If your backtest produces similar results over 8-10 years ramp up slowly
If your backtest produces diff results over 8-10 years ramp up quickly (add capital) and hope it holds - then take your money and run.

 

[DTB2]

I hope you are correct and this is a real setup and not a coding/slippeage error - I personally have never found a setup with a 1:2 target/stop that produces above 90% winners, that alone is spectacular.
Since your stop is very tight I'd do the following
If your backtest produces similar results over 8-10 years ramp up slowly
If your backtest produces diff results over 8-10 years ramp up quickly (add capital) and hope it holds - then take your money and run.

No coding error, don't know how-LOL!

I observed (osmosis) ES for many hours until it kind of hit me.

 

[sysdevel99]

No coding error, don't know how-LOL!

I observed (osmosis) ES for many hours until it kind of hit me.

Good luck !!!!