Simple System for Beginners

ssternlight · Oct 7, 2004

FWIW, if you apply a reasonable stop and use the same parameters you can enter a trade just after the open 9:31 or when triggered, hold until the end of the day, and make more money....

In effect, there doesn't seem to be anything special about entering after lunch. Just a std breakout/down system with a reasonable envelople.

Caveats:
1. Backtest run on Index and not futures data for last 3 years
2. Stop is set around $250/contract
3. W/L ratio is about 50/50 so you have to "live with it."
4. Past Results are no guarantee of...

keeptradin' · Oct 7, 2004

Quote from ssternlight:

FWIW, if you apply a reasonable stop and use the same parameters you can enter a trade just after the open 9:31 or when triggered, hold until the end of the day, and make more money....

The 10/1 trade, along with today's trade, are good examples of this. There was quite a bit of profit given up in waiting until 2pm EST for entry.

In the interest of the "Simple System" theme, I will refrain from modifying the parameters offered intially by AR.

keeptradin' · Oct 7, 2004

I show an open price of of 585.8 on the 2pm EST ER2 bar. Following the rules of this sytem, you would be short now from 585.8.

Stop loss is the Buy price of 593.0. Target is MOC at 4pm.

Am I doing it right?

mchangbze · Oct 7, 2004

Quote from keeptradin':

The 10/1 trade, along with today's trade, are good examples of this. There was quite a bit of profit given up in waiting until 2pm EST for entry.

In the interest of the "Simple System" theme, I will refrain from modifying the parameters offered intially by AR.

Keeptrading,

I am testing out the entry right after open.
Here are the results so far:

Date Type Entry Exit Points
Oct 1 Long 577.00 585.80 +8.8
Oct 4 Long 592.30 588.40 -3.9
Oct 5 Long 591.00 587.10 -3.9
Oct 6 Shrt 586.60 590.40 -3.8
Oct 7 Shrt 589.00 ______ _____

As you can see, for this to work, it really needs to trend in your entry direction until the 4pm exit. But most of the time I just get stopped out.

Mike

keeptradin' · Oct 7, 2004

Quote from mchangbze:

As you can see, for this to work, it really needs to trend in your entry direction until the 4pm exit. But most of the time I just get stopped out.

Yes, I noticed that as well. It gives you greater profits, but also increases the chances of being stopped out, due to the "wiggling" that takes place throughout the day. Part of the effectiveness of the PM entry is the last twoo hours seem to be less volatile.

Maybe that's why AR set it up that way?

mchangbze · Oct 7, 2004

Quote from keeptradin':

Yes, I noticed that as well. It gives you greater profits, but also increases the chances of being stopped out, due to the "wiggling" that takes place throughout the day. Part of the effectiveness of the PM entry is the last twoo hours seem to be less volatile.

Maybe that's why AR set it up that way?

With some money management, you'll be able to lessen losses. But that's not the purpose of this "Simple System".

Another thing: do you think that if too many people use this same system, it will lose its effectiveness?

Mike

Sashe · Oct 7, 2004

ER2
Open Pice 591.00 (930am ET)
Buy Sig 593.00
Short Sig 589.00

Triggered: Short 585.70 @2:00 pm ET
Closed: 582.70 @4:00 pm ET

P&L +3.00
P&L +$295
____________________________________
Total Running P&L for October + $925 (added missing Oct.1 trade)

keeptradin' · Oct 7, 2004

Quote from Sashe:

Total Running P&L for October + $925 (added missing Oct.1 trade)

ER is cooperating nicely with the system, so far this month. Bet if I put some real money on the line, that would all change!

Very intriguing to say the least. Reminds me of the system TriPack shared awhile back for ES. Makes me think about ditching the maddening attempt at trading the CCI, certainly this is much simpler and straightforward.

Anyone trading this method for real yet? Anomaly, how 'bout you?

keeptradin' · Oct 8, 2004

I have ER open for today at 580.4. This would give us the following entries:

Buy @ 582.3
Sell @ 578.5

Of course, we'll wait until 2pm EST to enter the orders.

keeptradin' · Oct 8, 2004

Wow, that's scary. The sell order price was 578.5. It was hit on the 2:05 (EST) bar, and is around two points in the black, so far.

Anomaly, do you have a favorite charity, like Woodie with "Make a Wish?" If so, I think anyone who uses this sytem and profits should donate a portion to the charity you designate. A good way to give back what's been freely shared.