Simple Profitable Method

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Quote from SamuelEngland:

You're right, patience and discipline are certainly some of the hardest aspects of trading to master. No system will be profitable if one doesn't have the necessary discipline to trade its signals.
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Yeah, took me years to learn that one.

Now I only trade 4 to 8 times a week, max! ... but they're really good trades.

Does wonders for the equity curve.
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The thing is a couple of years ago it would have been possible to get 30 pts from the ER2. Not anymore, it pretty much trades in-synch with the rest of the financials, but two years ago, boy oh boy!

Regards,

JJ
 
Quote from JimmyJam:


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The thing is a couple of years ago it would have been possible to get 30 pts from the ER2. Not anymore, it pretty much trades in-synch with the rest of the financials, but two years ago, boy oh boy!


JJ [/B]
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Ive been tracking it and it does move almost in synch with ES and YM so theyve probably figured out how to spread it.
 
Mo0, I don't trade any other vehicles with this method, mostly because I'm very familiar with the ER2 market rythm now, and I'll keep trading it until liquidity becomes an issue.

JimmyJam, they must have been exciting times with regular 300 tick days, I can barely imagine it. I turned 22 recently, and I've only been involved with the markets since April 2005. I know I have much to learn and experience, and as Livermore once said; "Ignorance at 22 is not a structural defect". :)

Attached are my entries, and exit screen shots from yesterdays trade.

2min entry

2u4jz2c.gif


10 min entry

2qujibk.gif


2 min exit

44jrqj6.gif
 
Mo0, they're not 'after the fact' charts, they are screen shots taken from the points I entered and exited while the charts were live.

It's just an example of how strong the signal can be when you get a 2 minute zero line cross, and a 10 minute zero line cross at more or less the same time.

I checked the 10 min chart to see what the MACD was doing, it was heading down for a zero line cross.

I then checked the 2 minute chart for trades to the short side, and there was also a zero line cross. I simply had to make that trade, the market begged me to.

Something else I took into consideration is that the price was below the pivot point for the day (white line) at the time of the zero-line-crosses to the down side.

My profit objective was to cover the short at the first support pivot point (red line), which I did. The price actually fell much further after I covered, though I was very happy with close to 40 ticks for 10 minutes work.

Just for reference, below i've attached an 'after the fact' chart to show the difference between trading in the moment and trading with hindsight.

3yphqwp.gif


I believe you can learn much more from screen shots taken at the time of your trades, than looking at 'after the fact' charts when it's all said and done.
 
Quote from Charly:

Had not heard yet of the ISM index -
what is it and has it significant value -
reliably (afap)?

Charly
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Well.

Every day I just check economic calendar if there's any important news to be released. checkout http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

It is smart not to take any trades before the news is released because the market is likely to be choppy. Why would big traders trade before the news is released? There are always three parties involved, buyers, sellers and people on the sideline ready to buy or sell. If important news is coming up people stay on the side until the news is released. So risk is high.

However, if the market looks like rallying or breaking right before the news is released you could choose to buy/short right before with a close stop. Often you will be right then. I don't know why, maybe some people already know what will happen. however, it's safer to wait.

On Dec 1 at 10.00 there was construction spending (not important) and ISM index (every 1st of the month at 10.00) which is important checkout http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/basics/tscglossary/purchasingmanagersindex.html. Right after figures came out the markets fell.

Anyway, just always check if there's important news. Chances are bigger that the market is choppy before it (also the day before it) and trending after it because people trade.

For Dec 5th there is no expected news. Also because last Friday was trending my guess is that Monday will be choppy with maybe a positive opening because the market came back quite nicely last Friday. If my choppy bias is confirmed in the first 15-20 minutes I don't trade T28 system but I trade a countertrend system based on Bolling Bands.

T28 method alone is not sufficient for me, I want to understand what's going on and what market we're in. If a trend is defined you can keep your position much longer in my opinion because a trend does not suddenly change usually. (I mean there will be a double bottom or something and enough time to get out)

If any day will be trending next week it will be Wednesday with nonfarm payrolls coming out and a bunch of other figures, all before the market opens. Tuesday most probably will be choppy.

Anyway, nothing is sure, it's all probabilities.

regards,
Ivo
 
"If any day will be trending next week it will be Wednesday with nonfarm payrolls coming out and a bunch of other figures, all before the market opens. Tuesday most probably will be choppy."

Payrolls are normally Friday. any reason for early release ?
 
Measures the number of new jobs created in the previous month, excluding the farming industry. ADP, a leading provider of employment solutions for businesses, releases this indicator two days before the highly anticipated official Nonfarm Employment Change. ADP claims that this indicator has predictive value in regard to official statistics, but it hasn't yet gained acclaim from traders due to it's short history.


Quote from Mo06:

"If any day will be trending next week it will be Wednesday with nonfarm payrolls coming out and a bunch of other figures, all before the market opens. Tuesday most probably will be choppy."

Payrolls are normally Friday. any reason for early release ?
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