Simple Profitable Method
- Thread starter trader28
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Yep, I just bailed on my last position at break-even.
Here's the numbers:
at 1:30 3/5 +2.5
at 2:30 4/9 +1.70
at 3:30 4/15 -4.30
For the week Mon: +2.4 Tues: 0 Wed: -5.00 This is net using $5.00 cm.
In reality, I had some of the trades where I was +1.00 and put a break-even stop on them (last trade was +.80 when I put a b/e stop on). The -5.00 does not include moving stops, it accounts for letting the trade either be 1.50 profit or 1.00 loss.
So, after 3 days this week, the system is a net -2.60. This is not unusual, as many of you know. When day-trading these indexes you can slop around for 3-4 days, up or down a few points. The key is to have a decent day every 5 or so where you're up 5-8 points.
I really want to see if I can lower the number of signals and increase the win rate. LOL, that's always the goal
Yes, as I mentioned yesterday, the YM has been a lot cleaner than the ER these past few days. It, also, depends a great deal on your stops, targets, etc. A .10 move on the YM is $50. If that were the goal, we would have a much higher percentage of winners on the ER. The problem is, you must have a higher profit target than stop. Less than a .50 stop on the ER would be silly. I suspect a 10 stop on the YM is probably too small, thus you may need a 25 pt target and a 15 point stop for the YM. I don't know.
I am using a 10 pt stop and 20 pt. target and go to breakeven after gaining 10pts. I have found most decent moves in YM average 20-30 pts. I dont usually lose 10 pts however as I will exit sooner but I have been trading YM a long time and am used to the way it acts. What I need is a way to force me to take trades as I have a tendency to sit on my hands after a small profit which is why I am looking for something like this system.
Interesting Bearbelly on the breakeven after up 10 points. A fairly large chunk of your trades must finish at breakeven I would imagine and do you find that your are actually creating a positive outcome by doing this ? i.e. there must be some that go with you 10 or more but don't hit 20 then come back to breakeven or below breakeven but not -10 agains't and then go on to hit the full target. You basically have to justify about 70% of those breakevens going to a full loss if you didn't take the breakeven and just let either the 20 point target hit or 10 point stop hit. If you can review your trades it would be interesting to see if this infact is helping your bottom line or if its merely a mental thing that you don't want a profit to turn into a loss. Food for thought
In my cash trading I will generally not let it come all the way back to breakeven. A lot depends on what I see developing. As I said I am sim trading this method and sticking to the rules to see what happens. My experience has been that 20 pts. is a very reasonable target for YM. The secret seems to be recognizing chop areas and avoiding them as with all these crossover systems.
Trader28...First of all, I want to thank you for all your posts
and all your help!!! This is my first post as I thought your strategy is very interesting.
I've been trading your strategy just like you have posted. I've read through all the pages about 3 times now and have been trading on the YM, two minute charts. I use candlestick bars.
It seems like everytime I place a trade (zero line cross) I just place the trade and all of a sudden it bounces up/down on me
and I end up with a $20-$30 quick loss. I have yet to have it complete its pattern for a 10-20 point gain. I keep taking 5 point
losses.
In my frustration, I thought I would post my first post on elite trader. And see what kind of help you would suggest for me?
By the way I have been lurking on Elite Trader for about 6 months
now and what a great site it is. I feel lucky to have accidently found it.
ThankYou one and all!!!
snarlyjack
and all your help!!! This is my first post as I thought your strategy is very interesting.
I've been trading your strategy just like you have posted. I've read through all the pages about 3 times now and have been trading on the YM, two minute charts. I use candlestick bars.
It seems like everytime I place a trade (zero line cross) I just place the trade and all of a sudden it bounces up/down on me
and I end up with a $20-$30 quick loss. I have yet to have it complete its pattern for a 10-20 point gain. I keep taking 5 point
losses.
In my frustration, I thought I would post my first post on elite trader. And see what kind of help you would suggest for me?
By the way I have been lurking on Elite Trader for about 6 months
now and what a great site it is. I feel lucky to have accidently found it.
ThankYou one and all!!!
snarlyjack
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