Simple Profitable Method
- Thread starter trader28
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Nice little entry off the 3SMA+2, unusual to use it other than re-entry but it was screaming for a trade
She's just serving up soda's today 
This thread is great.
It's interesting to read the banter between T28's 'Take Em All 2 minute Tommy gun' and Romik's orthodox 'Supportive Higher Timeframes' view. Surely the way to resolve this comes down to numbers.
A 1:1 with a 50% hit rate = go home
B 1:1 with an 80% hit rate = love your work
C 2:1 with a 50% hit rate = love your work
Assuming B & C are realisable, how happy one is surely comes down to the number of trades per day.
If B trades 10 times a day, lets say he gets 8 winners and 2 losers, net +6. If C trades 10 times per day, lets say he gets 5 winners and 5 losers, net +5. However, if B drops to 70% accuracy per day on 10 trades, he ends up with net +4. (And higher comms charges than C.) Similarly, if C can only manage 8 2:1 trades a day, he ends up with net +4.
Without going any further, the 'best' approach is dependent on trade expectancy and trade frequency. It would be very interesting if anyone who has been trading the SPM a while is willing to share their trading stats. i.e.
- % of signals taken per day
- average number of trades per day
- % win / loss rate
- average win size / loss size
T28 - any interest?
Cheers,
AM
It's interesting to read the banter between T28's 'Take Em All 2 minute Tommy gun' and Romik's orthodox 'Supportive Higher Timeframes' view. Surely the way to resolve this comes down to numbers.
A 1:1 with a 50% hit rate = go home
B 1:1 with an 80% hit rate = love your work
C 2:1 with a 50% hit rate = love your work
Assuming B & C are realisable, how happy one is surely comes down to the number of trades per day.
If B trades 10 times a day, lets say he gets 8 winners and 2 losers, net +6. If C trades 10 times per day, lets say he gets 5 winners and 5 losers, net +5. However, if B drops to 70% accuracy per day on 10 trades, he ends up with net +4. (And higher comms charges than C.) Similarly, if C can only manage 8 2:1 trades a day, he ends up with net +4.
Without going any further, the 'best' approach is dependent on trade expectancy and trade frequency. It would be very interesting if anyone who has been trading the SPM a while is willing to share their trading stats. i.e.
- % of signals taken per day
- average number of trades per day
- % win / loss rate
- average win size / loss size
T28 - any interest?
Cheers,
AM
what frequencies?
we need to consider expectancy and frequency. (and trading costs.)
Hi guys, Did everyone check out Jack Hershey's last post:
01-21-07 12:45 PM
Here is a synopsis of the commentary that arose after my yesterday evening post...
I got a lot out of this post, it was very straight forward; thank you Jack; and it kind of opened my mind to consider some of the things he was advising us to look at. Such as using one indicator and all the time in the market.
I haven't heard to many people on this thread real thrilled about an all the time in the market system. For me, a guy who seems born to be whiplashed, being in the market all the time scares me. I could lose more even faster!
In the market all the time has some benefits. You are not going to miss the big move if you're in the market all the time. If a price is so bad you get stopped out why wouldn't you want to reverse?
You can't take any big losses because the signals will reverse before you get hurt too bad.
No big losses? Never miss a big move? Brilliant! More Guinness for all!
Anyway I tried to take Jack's advise and use one indicator and an all time in the market strategy. It allowed me to quit thinking and just take signals. I took a look at YM for the last 4 days and I looked at ER2 today. The results are awesome!
Try this you'll like it. I am using just the 14,1,3 stoch and the 3sma + 2 and the two minute charts. The signal is both stoch lines thru zero line. Today, YM makes positive 50 points. ER2 makes 11.0! There were about 10 signals on each market so fees are very reasonable.
I've just reviewed YM for the last week. The last 4 days YM would have done 140 points. No losing days so far.
I guess you can tell I'm excited about this. It's the same as T28 except I'm using the stoch, I like the signals better. I don't want 2 oscillators cause that's not simple.
On other issues such using these signals to get in trades at key points on longer term charts. That's been the basis of my trading for the last couple years and it doesn't work for daytrading. No daytrader waits for the key S/R from a 60 minute chart, you might not be in a trade for days. If you get whiplashed you could miss a 1000 bucks waiting for the next S/R point, unless you wanna chase the market!
Tomorrow I'll simultrade this with the IB papertrading system and report back.
Oh! I just thought of another good thing Jack mentioned. Like, if you wait to take signals off longer timeframes the you're just watching the market instead of being in the market. It's hard for me to resist the impluse to take a trade if I haven't been in the market for an 1/2 hour or so. I'm a gambler and a gamesplayer and I want action. I can't live without! Maybe I need to be in the market all the time so I can't overtrade!!!! aint that a hoot!
Steak? Coming soon I hope. If anybody else looks at this long post I want to hear what you think.
01-21-07 12:45 PM
Here is a synopsis of the commentary that arose after my yesterday evening post...
I got a lot out of this post, it was very straight forward; thank you Jack; and it kind of opened my mind to consider some of the things he was advising us to look at. Such as using one indicator and all the time in the market.
I haven't heard to many people on this thread real thrilled about an all the time in the market system. For me, a guy who seems born to be whiplashed, being in the market all the time scares me. I could lose more even faster!
In the market all the time has some benefits. You are not going to miss the big move if you're in the market all the time. If a price is so bad you get stopped out why wouldn't you want to reverse?
You can't take any big losses because the signals will reverse before you get hurt too bad.
No big losses? Never miss a big move? Brilliant! More Guinness for all!
Anyway I tried to take Jack's advise and use one indicator and an all time in the market strategy. It allowed me to quit thinking and just take signals. I took a look at YM for the last 4 days and I looked at ER2 today. The results are awesome!
Try this you'll like it. I am using just the 14,1,3 stoch and the 3sma + 2 and the two minute charts. The signal is both stoch lines thru zero line. Today, YM makes positive 50 points. ER2 makes 11.0! There were about 10 signals on each market so fees are very reasonable.
I've just reviewed YM for the last week. The last 4 days YM would have done 140 points. No losing days so far.
I guess you can tell I'm excited about this. It's the same as T28 except I'm using the stoch, I like the signals better. I don't want 2 oscillators cause that's not simple.
On other issues such using these signals to get in trades at key points on longer term charts. That's been the basis of my trading for the last couple years and it doesn't work for daytrading. No daytrader waits for the key S/R from a 60 minute chart, you might not be in a trade for days. If you get whiplashed you could miss a 1000 bucks waiting for the next S/R point, unless you wanna chase the market!
Tomorrow I'll simultrade this with the IB papertrading system and report back.
Oh! I just thought of another good thing Jack mentioned. Like, if you wait to take signals off longer timeframes the you're just watching the market instead of being in the market. It's hard for me to resist the impluse to take a trade if I haven't been in the market for an 1/2 hour or so. I'm a gambler and a gamesplayer and I want action. I can't live without! Maybe I need to be in the market all the time so I can't overtrade!!!! aint that a hoot!
Steak? Coming soon I hope. If anybody else looks at this long post I want to hear what you think.
Beeflover,
I did posts a message to Jack Hershey about his "stop and
reverse" system. But so far I haven't heard back from him.
So...let me get this straight?
14-1-3 (why this stoch and not the ) 5-2-3?
What are your "gut" feeling about a stop and reverse system???
In the market all the time???
Does this method of trading "scare you ?" (moves against you)?
Thanks
snarlyjack
I did posts a message to Jack Hershey about his "stop and
reverse" system. But so far I haven't heard back from him.
So...let me get this straight?
14-1-3 (why this stoch and not the ) 5-2-3?
What are your "gut" feeling about a stop and reverse system???
In the market all the time???
Does this method of trading "scare you ?" (moves against you)?
Thanks
snarlyjack
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