Simple Profitable Method
- Thread starter trader28
- Start date
- Status
<b>Steve46</b> is correct on simpler being better = best. The more experienced a trader becomes, the fewer indicators one needs to profit with.
Chart indicators give a visual look at when / where price direction appears to be changing. Too many indicators cloud the picture in real time, making it impossible to take entry signals crisply with faith and confidence.
Also, any normal to large-range intraday swing will give several entry points along the way. If the ER rises from 802 to 812 tomorrow, it will invariably give more than one buy signal in that process. Stochastic / MACD traders will see at least one of the setups. MA traders will see another. PivotPoint traders will see yet a different signal than the first two.
How many long signals will traders who glob all of these indicators together on their charts see? None. Each of the long signals other traders' acted on will be in conflict on the congested charts.
Make sense? Less is more!
*
Instead of overlaying indicators en masse or tweaking them to over-optimized states, a better addition would be price patterns. Learn to spot flat coils = ledges, small flags, conservative use of trend lines (sparingly) and especially 1,2,3 swing patterns.
Pure price action itself will tell you exactly where to get in and sometimes where to get out. Chart indicators merely tell you which direction to lean, long or short at any moment in time.
Lagging indicators work, and they work with methodical effectiveness. They do so because a body in motion tends to stay in motion... otherwise a definition for "trend". Lagging indicators alone will not show you exactly, precisely where to get in every time. That aspect of trading is best left to pure price action itself.
Intraday flags, major trend line breaks (horizontal or vertical) and 1,2,3 patterns are what y'all might strongly consider adding to <b>T28's</b> set of effective tools for favorable odds trade entry signals.
Chart indicators give a visual look at when / where price direction appears to be changing. Too many indicators cloud the picture in real time, making it impossible to take entry signals crisply with faith and confidence.
Also, any normal to large-range intraday swing will give several entry points along the way. If the ER rises from 802 to 812 tomorrow, it will invariably give more than one buy signal in that process. Stochastic / MACD traders will see at least one of the setups. MA traders will see another. PivotPoint traders will see yet a different signal than the first two.
How many long signals will traders who glob all of these indicators together on their charts see? None. Each of the long signals other traders' acted on will be in conflict on the congested charts.
Make sense? Less is more!
*
Instead of overlaying indicators en masse or tweaking them to over-optimized states, a better addition would be price patterns. Learn to spot flat coils = ledges, small flags, conservative use of trend lines (sparingly) and especially 1,2,3 swing patterns.
Pure price action itself will tell you exactly where to get in and sometimes where to get out. Chart indicators merely tell you which direction to lean, long or short at any moment in time.
Lagging indicators work, and they work with methodical effectiveness. They do so because a body in motion tends to stay in motion... otherwise a definition for "trend". Lagging indicators alone will not show you exactly, precisely where to get in every time. That aspect of trading is best left to pure price action itself.
Intraday flags, major trend line breaks (horizontal or vertical) and 1,2,3 patterns are what y'all might strongly consider adding to <b>T28's</b> set of effective tools for favorable odds trade entry signals.
Steve,
I agree, a stop is exactly what we need.
This is where were at:
1). We have a system.
2). We have a entry.
3). We have a feel for the market.
4). We need a "tight" stop.
I am thinking a simple (EMA2) or (EMA3) as our hard stop.
We are losing money on the "flipbacks". Which is ok, part of the game, but we can't let them run. We need a tighter stop.
snarlyjack
I agree, a stop is exactly what we need.
This is where were at:
1). We have a system.
2). We have a entry.
3). We have a feel for the market.
4). We need a "tight" stop.
I am thinking a simple (EMA2) or (EMA3) as our hard stop.
We are losing money on the "flipbacks". Which is ok, part of the game, but we can't let them run. We need a tighter stop.
snarlyjack
I disagree, just because you werent able to get mechanical systems to really perform, doesnt mean other people havent, like myself.
Your statement "Systems writing = testing = trading taught me many realities about markets and trading I'd never have learned otherwise. "
is very true, but where you chose to move away from mechanical systems, and only use them to "learn about the nature of the markets", I chose to to make them better, and created systems that can actually trade the markets better than "a slow human". There is no way in hell I could be fast enough to grab some of the mispriced shares available out there, but my computer can in milliseconds.
My systems run in the 64% win, profit factor 2.4 range these days, with very tiny drawdowns. Soon my accounts will exceed the liquidity the systems target and my returns will slow down.
Im not one stage away from the final evolution, I blew it away
I sit back and let the computers collect money each day, I dont have to watch the markets and my time is free'd up for improving the systems and building new ones.
You said:
"their way thru the natural learning curve. "
Yes they are, but they are at the very very very beginning, and SOME are already boasting about what a killing they are making. I know for a fact these silly system ideas they are toying with are not where the money is at. SOME of these guys are just pretending they are "Traders" or are seriously fooling themselves. They have no idea how far they still are from real successful trading, and its obvious to the "real" traders, but not to them.
Look at the recent post of "tightening stops" to stop those bad trades sooner. An experienced trader already knows this is going to make their performance far worse by getting their winners stopped out more frequently
Oh well, ill let them keep pretending they know what they are doing. Trader28 or whatever the idiots name is, keeps talking smack like he's a god of trading yet makes it obvious with every post he is still in trading 101 class. Oh well, I tried. Too much pride in the way from some of these guys to learn.
Your statement "Systems writing = testing = trading taught me many realities about markets and trading I'd never have learned otherwise. "
is very true, but where you chose to move away from mechanical systems, and only use them to "learn about the nature of the markets", I chose to to make them better, and created systems that can actually trade the markets better than "a slow human". There is no way in hell I could be fast enough to grab some of the mispriced shares available out there, but my computer can in milliseconds.
My systems run in the 64% win, profit factor 2.4 range these days, with very tiny drawdowns. Soon my accounts will exceed the liquidity the systems target and my returns will slow down.
Im not one stage away from the final evolution, I blew it away
I sit back and let the computers collect money each day, I dont have to watch the markets and my time is free'd up for improving the systems and building new ones.You said:
"their way thru the natural learning curve. "
Yes they are, but they are at the very very very beginning, and SOME are already boasting about what a killing they are making. I know for a fact these silly system ideas they are toying with are not where the money is at. SOME of these guys are just pretending they are "Traders" or are seriously fooling themselves. They have no idea how far they still are from real successful trading, and its obvious to the "real" traders, but not to them.
Look at the recent post of "tightening stops" to stop those bad trades sooner. An experienced trader already knows this is going to make their performance far worse by getting their winners stopped out more frequently
Oh well, ill let them keep pretending they know what they are doing. Trader28 or whatever the idiots name is, keeps talking smack like he's a god of trading yet makes it obvious with every post he is still in trading 101 class. Oh well, I tried. Too much pride in the way from some of these guys to learn.
<b>Dragon</b>, while it appears this thread may very well implode upon itself soon, my sincere congrats to what you have accomplished in systematic fashion. What you have done is not duplicatible (for a number of reasons) by many, if any of the other people here.
We all evolve thru our own learning curves at our own pace. The path from start to success has so many steps & landings, far more than any of us can possibly visualize.
I chose to create my own personal "system" which issues trade signals within the larger framework of a filter chart. Any system is either mean reversal or directional bias at its core, then the tree branches out from there.
Most if not all retail traders are only capable of writing one-dimensional systems that attempt to profit from sideways or directional markets. I understand you work a version of mean reversal... price disparity on fast scale. Again, most retail traders cannot and/or will not be able to duplicate such.
It is possible to create one's own "system" from a methodology using oscillator-type chart tools. That is fine for the general framework of picking direction at this moment in time, with probability of sideways or directional continuation to be determined. In other words, that's the optimizing part of this process.
Learn to use a couple simple tools for probable price direction, learn to identify price patterns of continuation or reversal, learn to let winners run while cutting losses reasonably short (your point very well made about knee-jerk stops & exits resulting in degraded performance overall) and success can happen in time.
I use my time intraday to look at charts once every fifteen minutes, then act accordingly from there. You use your time to work with system performance research & parameters. In the end we both do two things: manage "systems" and work to keep the entire process optimal thru ever changing market conditions.
The end for me inside this thread. Best of luck to all involved!
We all evolve thru our own learning curves at our own pace. The path from start to success has so many steps & landings, far more than any of us can possibly visualize.
I chose to create my own personal "system" which issues trade signals within the larger framework of a filter chart. Any system is either mean reversal or directional bias at its core, then the tree branches out from there.
Most if not all retail traders are only capable of writing one-dimensional systems that attempt to profit from sideways or directional markets. I understand you work a version of mean reversal... price disparity on fast scale. Again, most retail traders cannot and/or will not be able to duplicate such.
It is possible to create one's own "system" from a methodology using oscillator-type chart tools. That is fine for the general framework of picking direction at this moment in time, with probability of sideways or directional continuation to be determined. In other words, that's the optimizing part of this process.
Learn to use a couple simple tools for probable price direction, learn to identify price patterns of continuation or reversal, learn to let winners run while cutting losses reasonably short (your point very well made about knee-jerk stops & exits resulting in degraded performance overall) and success can happen in time.
I use my time intraday to look at charts once every fifteen minutes, then act accordingly from there. You use your time to work with system performance research & parameters. In the end we both do two things: manage "systems" and work to keep the entire process optimal thru ever changing market conditions.
The end for me inside this thread. Best of luck to all involved!
traderdragon2
Your an idiot !
I was simply bringing up a quote from Trader28,
which he used earlier in his thread which I thought
was wierd and quite funny.
It is people like you with your negative posts that ruin a decent thread like this one.
Your angry postings telegraph your negative returns as a trader.
Dont worry, one day you will be able to move out of your parents house, and save up enough to maybe even trade one lots again!
Flux
Your an idiot !
I was simply bringing up a quote from Trader28,
which he used earlier in his thread which I thought
was wierd and quite funny.
It is people like you with your negative posts that ruin a decent thread like this one.
Your angry postings telegraph your negative returns as a trader.
Dont worry, one day you will be able to move out of your parents house, and save up enough to maybe even trade one lots again!
Flux
Trader28,
This is my opinion of the whole thing...
That ( a..h...) has problems, that have nothing to do with us!
We need to keep going...
I don't have a shit what that guy thinks/does/or says...
Hang in there, were in this together...keep going forward!!!
snarlyjack
This is my opinion of the whole thing...
That ( a..h...) has problems, that have nothing to do with us!
We need to keep going...
I don't have a shit what that guy thinks/does/or says...
Hang in there, were in this together...keep going forward!!!
snarlyjack
- Status