Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

[GTS]

Quote from JSSPMK:

fine, it's a mathematical fact that it is a 50/50, it's also a fact that it is a lot more unlikely to get 20 consecutive compared to 3 consecutive.

No one said that isnt true - its obvious that is true. And that has nothing to do with what you claimed previously.

I see now you are trying to reframe the discussion, maybe you've come to the realization that you were wrong and aren't man enough to admit it. Unforunately for you, your previous false statements are still in this thread for all to see.

Quote from JSSPMK:
It's like in Blackjack in a way, who has a more favourable odds of getting a better hand after you have 4-5 consecutive losses, you or a dealer? You, of course

Quote from JSSPMK:
decreasing probability of continueing to get consecutive tails

Quote from JSSPMK:
keeping in mind that odds of getting a long run deminish after every consecutive tails toss - that means that probability of getting heads increases

Quote from JSSPMK:
And because with every consecutive heads the chances of getting another heads deminish that makes it more possible to get tails

Nope, the chance of getting heads on the next flip is always 50/50, no matter how long the streak of heads that preceeds this flip - what happened before is irrelevent, the coin has no memory.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from GTS:

No one said that isnt true - its obvious that is true. And that has nothing to do with what you claimed previously.

I see now you are trying to reframe the discussion, maybe you've come to the realization that you were wrong and aren't man enough to admit it. Unforunately for you, your previous false statements are still in this thread for all to see.

that's exactly what I have said previously, the longer the run of heads, the more chances of getting a tails, because a possibility of continueing to get consecutive heads becomes more and more remote with every next consecutive heads

 

[GTS]

Quote from JSSPMK:

that's exactly what I have said previously, the longer the run of heads, the more chances of getting a tails, because a possibility of continueing to get consecutive heads becomes more and more remote with every next consecutive heads

Wrong - the probability of getting heads is always 50/50 on every toss, no matter how long the run of heads (or tails) is.

Read it again:

The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a coin. With a fair coin the chances of getting heads are exactly 0.5 (one in two). The chances of it coming up heads twice in a row are 0.5×0.5=0.25 (one in four). The probability of three heads in a row is 0.5×0.5×0.5= 0.125 (one in eight) and so on.

Now suppose that we have just tossed four heads in a row. A believer in the gambler's fallacy might say, "If the next coin flipped were to come up heads, it would generate a run of five successive heads. The probability of a run of five successive heads is (1 / 2)5 = 1 / 32; therefore, the next coin flipped only has a 1 in 32 chance of coming up heads."

This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be 0.5, never more or less, and the probability of heads must always be 0.5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they do not count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. In fact, the calculation of the 1 in 32 probability relied on the assumption that heads and tails are equally likely at every step. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from GTS:

Wrong - the probability of getting heads is always 50/50 on every toss, no matter how long the run of heads (or tails) is.

In that case it should be just as easy to get a straight run of 100 as it is to get 5 consecutive tails, but unfortunately for you it's not.

 

[Tums]

Quote from JSSPMK:

In that case it should be just as easy to get a straight run of 100 as it is to get 5 consecutive tails, but unfortunately for you it's not.

the game theory is a well researched and studied knowledge. This is not a topic someone can get up and debate or argue about, without first understanding the fundamentals of the theory.
(what you are talking about is covered in the first year university game theory or statistics course.)

I would suggest you to do some readings first. There are lots of information on the internet, eg. wikipedia. You might be better equipped for a meaningful discourse, after you have acquired the basic knowledge.

 

[saxon22]

Quote from Allaces:

. trading is not for you..



Sounds familiar albeit for different reasons.....

 

[MajorUrsa]

Quote from JSSPMK:

In that case it should be just as easy to get a straight run of 100 as it is to get 5 consecutive tails, but unfortunately for you it's not.

R u blind?
"After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they do not count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails."

READ!

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from GTS:

No one said that isnt true - its obvious that is true.

That wraps it up then.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from MajorUrsa:

R u blind?
"After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they do not count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails."

READ!

but not the same as 5 vs 10 successive heads , that was my point all along. So what do you want me to read?

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Why don't you try to play $1 online BJ using that table without deviation & write down amount of times you get a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses, that way you will know without listening to me

Last night I played over at 888.com, had winning hands after hitting 5-7 consecutive losing hands about 6 times, last one went to 8 consecutive. This is not a Holy Grail, I didn't really say that it was, you can still get I don't know say 15 consecutive losing hands, I made a comparison to probability that after 2-3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising dips a 0 line cross normally would be a better bet than first time 0 line cross. Third time lucky sort of speak.

And that's what started all this, it's you that ought to read properly what others post. Somehow this was linked to coin tossing. If I was wrong at stating the above based on your sugestions of me not being able to understand game theory, being a shit trader, not being able to read, etc, then why the fuck (pardon) do I get a solid average? Luck?