Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

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Quote from Allaces:

No.. but you did say the chances of getting a tail are enhanced after 20 heads in a row... and I think you still believe it despite what you've been told
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Yes, I believe that to be true even though it remains to be a 50/50 case. In trading we rely on probabilities all the time, the same in the coin flip, because it's to do with 50/50 and decreasing probability of continueing to get consecutive tails. Come on guys, the chance of getting 21 consecutive tails is 1 in over 2m, that is pretty remote, is it not? 22 even more, 30 a lot more. It is possible, but very unlikely to happen to any of us.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Yes, I believe that to be true even though it remains to be a 50/50 case. In trading we rely on probabilities all the time, the same in the coin flip, because it's to do with 50/50 and decreasing probability of continueing to get consecutive tails. Come on guys, the chance of getting 21 consecutive tails is 1 in over 2m, that is pretty remote, is it not? 22 even more, 30 a lot more. It is possible, but very unlikely to happen to any of us.
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For the last time.. mathematical impossibility.. you are wrong and are beginning to sound like a petulant child that cannot admit being wrong.. trading is not for you.. A: without a "correct" understanding of probability.. B: the courage to admit when you are wrong
 
Quote from JSSPMK:
Yes, I believe that to be true even though it remains to be a 50/50 case. In trading we rely on probabilities all the time, the same in the coin flip, because it's to do with 50/50 and decreasing probability of continueing to get consecutive tails. Come on guys, the chance of getting 21 consecutive tails is 1 in over 2m, that is pretty remote, is it not? 22 even more, 30 a lot more. It is possible, but very unlikely to happen to any of us.
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What you have written above (bolded) is a contradiction.

You are confusing two different concepts.

Yes the odds of getting 21 tails in a row is remote. The odds of getting 22 tails in a row are even more remote. However if you do get 21 tails in a row, the odds of making it to 22 tails in a row are still 50/50 because each coin toss is a discrete event that is not dependent on any previous coin toss.

You are repeating the gamblers fallacy to a T. I can't believe you read that whole Wiki article and still do not see how fundamentally flawed your thinking is.
 
Quote from GTS:

What you have written above (bolded) is a contradiction.

You are confusing two different concepts.

Yes the odds of getting 21 tails in a row is remote. The odds of getting 22 tails in a row are even more remote. However if you do get 21 tails in a row, the odds of making it to 22 tails in a row are still 50/50 because each coin toss is a discrete event that is not dependent on any previous coin toss.

You are repeating the gamblers fallacy to a T. I can't believe you read that whole Wiki article and still do not see how fundamentally flawed your thinking is.
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"more remote" is key to this arguement, what is the opposite of more remote?

Also 50/50 is a lot more advantageous than 10/90, is it not?
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

It's a great system, with a few additions, it's pretty much damn near bullet proof.

JJ
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hahahaha lol Jimmeeeeeeeeeeeeeee you pimp -----GOD! are you a baby run and tell now jimmmeeee be a good mommy's boy

LMAO!!! whaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

If you can prove to me that it is just as likely to get 20 consecutive tails as 3, then I will agree with you :)
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You just keep embarrassing yourself, you have been given several links that have already proven it.. people are laughing at you
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

here is a paragraph from your link:

What is the probability of flipping 21 heads in a row, with a fair coin? 1 in 2,097,152!!!
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I asked you what are the odds of the coin coming up heads on the 21st flip (after having already flipped 20 heads) and you respond with this (the answer to a completely different question)?

One more time - after having flipped a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row, what are the odds of the next flip being heads? Do you understand that it is 50/50 (same as every other toss) or do you still cling to the incorrect belief that the odds of it coming up tails is greater?
 
Quote from Allaces:

You just keep embarrassing yourself, I don't have to prove anything to you.. it's a mathematical probabilistic fact.. people are laughing at you
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fine, it's a mathematical fact that it is a 50/50, it's also a fact that it is a lot more unlikely to get 20 consecutive compared to 3 consecutive. That's probability, and gamblers fallacy is different to what I am saying here. You can laugh all you want, you both fail to prove me to be wrong so far :)
 
Quote from GTS:

I asked you what are the odds of the coin coming up heads on the 21st flip (after having already flipped 20 heads) and you respond with this (the answer to a completely different question)?

One more time - after having flipped a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row, what are the odds of the next flip being heads? Do you understand that it is 50/50 (same as every other toss) or do you still cling to the incorrect belief that the odds of it coming up tails is greater?
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50/50, but do you understand what 50/50 means when analysing probability of continuation?

And because with every consecutive heads the chances of getting another heads deminish that makes it more possible to get tails.
 
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