Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

[JSSPMK]

Quote from jimns:

JSSPMK

Interesting input - thanks. I'm improving my probability much as you are but in other ways, sometimes with the MACD10, sometimes with the general direction of both MACDs (2 and 10), etc.

Blackjack isn't a good example of your strategy though, you absolutely do not have better odds after 4-5 consecutive losses (or even after 100 consecutive losses) - basic probability. You may have better odds after losses in trading, but only because the losses represent unrealized buyer/seller pressure, traders watching the losses react emotionally, etc, and the movement, unlike Blackjack, isn't entirely random.

jimns

I've played hundreds of hands in BJ & believe me when I say that after 4-5 bad hands you will get a winning hand most times on maximum 7th hand IF you stick to the rules (http://wizardofodds.com/powerblackjack).

 

[jimns]

Quote from JSSPMK:

I've played hundreds of hands in BJ & believe me when I say that after 4-5 bad hands you will get a winning hand most times on maximum 7th hand IF you stick to the rules.

JSSPMK

Better publish quickly - mathematicians and statisticians everywhere are going to be very interested in that outcome - especially the part about how the 7th hand remembers the 6 that preceded it.

jimns

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from jimns:

JSSPMK

Better publish quickly - mathematicians and statisticians everywhere are going to be very interested in that outcome - especially the part about how the 7th hand remembers the 6 that preceded it.

jimns

Why don't you try to play $1 online BJ using that table without deviation & write down amount of times you get a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses, that way you will know without listening to me

Last night I played over at 888.com, had winning hands after hitting 5-7 consecutive losing hands about 6 times, last one went to 8 consecutive. This is not a Holy Grail, I didn't really say that it was, you can still get I don't know say 15 consecutive losing hands, I made a comparison to probability that after 2-3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising dips a 0 line cross normally would be a better bet than first time 0 line cross. Third time lucky sort of speak.

 

[jimns]

SPM signaled a ER2 long at 8:36, ran up about 10 points, and petered out about an hour later.

About a 10 tick range since - better dust off your Bollinger Bands if you still want to play.

jimns

 

[kinggyppo]

Trend following works great in trending markets. I often find though that using trend signals puts you on the right side of the market, but you are subject to chop (losing money). The problem is taking losing trade after losing trade to catch a trend. To trade these types of systems you need a strong stomach and to be capitalized properly. The market does not stay in trend mode for our sake. A system is only as good as its rules.

 

[abaker]

I thought spm was a great thread, one of the highlight threads of autumn06 (uk) on elitetrader. That I always checked for the next installment, whether discussion about the method or "wordplay"

 

[Allaces]

Quote from abaker:

I thought spm was a great thread, one of the highlight threads of autumn06 (uk) on elitetrader. That I always checked for the next installment, whether discussion about the method or "wordplay"

Well Baron closed it because he cracked the shits about Puretick being exposed as charlatans.. evidently spamming is more important than information

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

SPM works, it all depends on your understanding of a working pattern. Which pattern is it? Usually the best one is the one that creates 2 to 3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising lows prior to hitting the 0 line. I would only trade those set-ups using SPM, ie 2-3 failure crosses & only then I would enter. It's like in Blackjack in a way, who has a more favourable odds of getting a better hand after you have 4-5 consecutive losses, you or a dealer? You, of course. Are you always gonna have a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses - NO. Is SPM The Holy Grail - NO. What is SPM? It is a fantastic easy to understand pattern that works most times when right conditions are present. Why do you need 2-3 failure crosses? Because that way longer term charts are getting prepped for a larger move & that is all that is important.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

SPM works, it all depends on your understanding of a working pattern. Which pattern is it? Usually the best one is the one that creates 2 to 3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising lows prior to hitting the 0 line. I would only trade those set-ups using SPM, ie 2-3 failure crosses & only then I would enter. It's like in Blackjack in a way, who has a more favourable odds of getting a better hand after you have 4-5 consecutive losses, you or a dealer? You, of course. Are you always gonna have a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses - NO. Is SPM The Holy Grail - NO. What is SPM? It is a fantastic easy to understand pattern that works most times when right conditions are present. Why do you need 2-3 failure crosses? Because that way longer term charts are getting prepped for a larger move & that is all that is important.

 

[stockjedi]

Has anyone set this up in Sierra Charts? I need a little help if possible.

Thanks in advance!