Simple Profitable Method - Take 2

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SPM works, it all depends on your understanding of a working pattern. Which pattern is it? Usually the best one is the one that creates 2 to 3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising lows prior to hitting the 0 line. I would only trade those set-ups using SPM, ie 2-3 failure crosses & only then I would enter. It's like in Blackjack in a way, who has a more favourable odds of getting a better hand after you have 4-5 consecutive losses, you or a dealer? You, of course. Are you always gonna have a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses - NO. Is SPM The Holy Grail - NO. What is SPM? It is a fantastic easy to understand pattern that works most times when right conditions are present. Why do you need 2-3 failure crosses? Because that way longer term charts are getting prepped for a larger move & that is all that is important.
 
Quote from Allaces:

. . . the 8SMA+2 was used for anticipating the zero line cross and the 3SMA+2 was used as an almost instant re-entry in a trend.
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Allaces -

Can you explain that? I've got my own ideas about it but was never was clear about your use of it from the original thread.

How is the 8SMA+2 used to anticipate the zlc and how is the 3SMA+2 used for re-entry?

jimns
 
Quote from Allaces:

What planet are you trading on Steve?.. the idea that one of us could gain some sort of advantage by manipulating the minnows here on ET who collectively wouldn't add up to a mouse fart in tornado in these markets is patently ludicrous

And you obviously did not read the simple profitable method or you would know that the 8SMA+2 was used for anticipating the zero line cross and the 3SMA+2 was used as an almost instant re-entry in a trend

Jesus I wish evolution was more efficient at weeding out stupidity, where's the giant Earth impacting comet when you need one?
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You never did answer my question awhile back. In this thread which you started:http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=91643

You said that indicators are for amateurs. I asked if this meant you had abandoned the SPM method. You pretended not to understand but I think there is no doubt you are Trader28,so how about an answer.
 
The problem with any method is that it will not always work, and since that is the case, most people who try to duplicate the method will lose money and give up.

I actually only trade forex right now, but I know from experience that only a small % of people can actually make money strictly from trading.

That includes myself, I make more money from my normal work, and sometimes make a little extra per month trading, but I no longer have the balls to put on size on my trades.
 
Quote from Allaces:

. . . the 8SMA+2 was used for anticipating the zero line cross and the 3SMA+2 was used as an almost instant re-entry in a trend.
More...

Still wondering exactly how you use the SMAs? Here's what I'm doing currently:

On entry, I look for a MA Xover along with a close above (or below) the 3MA and supported by some or all of the following (depending on how I feel at the time):
- MACD above (or below) its average (I watch 2 and 10 min MACDs)
- MACD direction
- MACD Xover
- MACD ZLC

The MACD ZLC is my most reliable support, but it's usually late (as other posters have noted). I use the MACD Xover most often, but it slaps me with lots of small losses. (Money management rules here.) The more this stuff lines up, the more support there is for the entry.

On exit, if I haven't hit my money management target (or stop) I do pretty much the opposite - I let MAs lead me and let MACDs support the decision.

jimns
 
SPM works....to a certain degree. You cant just rely on MACD zero line cross to make a confident trade decision. Zero line cross is only a third of the story. T28 has not told you his thought process when making that trade and even if he did, you wouldnt be able to replicate it 100%. As the saying goes, design your own system that works for you. Use it as a tool to increase your odds but not your only judgement. Only your experience with the market will count.

The SPM was a great thread btw.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

SPM works, it all depends on your understanding of a working pattern. Which pattern is it? Usually the best one is the one that creates 2 to 3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising lows prior to hitting the 0 line. I would only trade those set-ups using SPM, ie 2-3 failure crosses & only then I would enter. It's like in Blackjack in a way, who has a more favourable odds of getting a better hand after you have 4-5 consecutive losses, you or a dealer? You, of course. Are you always gonna have a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses - NO. Is SPM The Holy Grail - NO. What is SPM? It is a fantastic easy to understand pattern that works most times when right conditions are present. Why do you need 2-3 failure crosses? Because that way longer term charts are getting prepped for a larger move & that is all that is important.
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spm.png


There was 1 loss of 1.50 point, 2nd trade primed longer charts & provided a solid follow-through helped by longer term trend.
 
It's hard to quantify but when you watch the 2 min macd and the two ma's for long enough you will see the setups occur several times a day and there will be no lag if the ma's are used properly.. but it is a subjective thing that requires you to become a trader and work your craft.. this business is part science and part art
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

SPM works, it all depends on your understanding of a working pattern. Which pattern is it? Usually the best one is the one that creates 2 to 3 declining peaks or 2-3 rising lows prior to hitting the 0 line. I would only trade those set-ups using SPM, ie 2-3 failure crosses & only then I would enter. It's like in Blackjack in a way, who has a more favourable odds of getting a better hand after you have 4-5 consecutive losses, you or a dealer? You, of course. Are you always gonna have a winning hand after 4-5 consecutive losses - NO. Is SPM The Holy Grail - NO. What is SPM? It is a fantastic easy to understand pattern that works most times when right conditions are present. Why do you need 2-3 failure crosses? Because that way longer term charts are getting prepped for a larger move & that is all that is important.
More...

JSSPMK

Interesting input - thanks. I'm improving my probability much as you are but in other ways, sometimes with the MACD10, sometimes with the general direction of both MACDs (2 and 10), etc.

Blackjack isn't a good example of your strategy though, you absolutely do not have better odds after 4-5 consecutive losses (or even after 100 consecutive losses) - basic probability. You may have better odds after losses in trading, but only because the losses represent unrealized buyer/seller pressure, traders watching the losses react emotionally, etc, and the movement, unlike Blackjack, isn't entirely random.

jimns
 
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