Tom, you are obviously on the right track. I don't trade Forex, so a can't help you much with that, but it seems that all markets obey the same basic principles. There is a very good trader, Joe Baker, who posts every day under "Joab" in the "trading" forum. He posts major levels for the ES. Even though you are not trading the ES i would suggest taking a look at the hourly ES chart and drawing horizontal lines at Baker's posted levels, and then adding trend lines of your own. I think when you do this it will be clear to you where Joe's levels come from. Then you might try the same on your Forex charts. This should be helpful in deciding the best locations for entries and stops. You might also try different time scales, as i'm sure you are aware that the longer the time frame that S/R levels relate to the more important those levels become. Look especially for intersections of trend lines and price levels. Not all of these intersections will be important, but it won't be long before you'll be able to tell which intersections are likely to be important from where price is relative to these intersections . This also allows looking a little into the future (but not far) to get a rough idea of when in the day the market is liable to be near the important intersection points. That's because sloped trend lines represent the rate of change in price, so the intersection of price levels and trendlines gives you a rough idea of the time of day when price is likely to be near the intersection, or in other words, near a particular price level.
For the futures i trade, i also find the calculated trader's pivot points very useful. But i haven't a clue whether they work as well for Forex. You can find the formula in books or on John Person's website.
Re the market being rigged, well of course the major players can, and do, move price in the direction they want it to go by trading in large size. This is particularly easy for them to do when the volume is light. It's just part of trading and it's legitimate. They can, for example, start a reversal to take out stops, and then just let the clusters of stop orders move the price the rest of the way in their favor. It's all part of the nature of trading.
I'm a little tired right now, did not get much sleep, so i hope this makes some sense. I tried trading TF today and had a pretty good day, so i may be adjusting to it.
