simple ES 1min chart trading

Planned for a late start that was even later, plus . . .

Wasn't willing to live trade, did a couple of demo trades.

I'm bouncing around in circles again, either I continue demo trading till I've experienced all that I feel I need to learn
about this Signals Trading Method or, get trading and 'learn on the job' — 'Damn the torpedos ! Full Speed Ahead !'

Looking back at today's opening there was a great trade 5:45 to 6:45 for 6-7 points, 'great' because there weren't any
Corrections as the Price declined. Then the Price began to rally, but in a series of hillocky B S B S B trades, trades
made within a one point spread. The signals from bars color change, T3 color change and gmacd lines ~ gls crossing,
were all valid but, trades one could do without, except, one Has to take them or go completely subjective and give up
trading the signals completely.

Dumped the minutes bars except for the 60 and added an extra higher time frame colored Price bars chart.
The idea is the higher time frame will, should, may keep me in the trade till the ferkin around on the lower time frame
chart has ended and the price resumed its direction.
Of course the price might break down and one's missed an earlier and more profitable Entry while waiting to see if the
higher time frame also changed signals.
It means one's demned if one does, demned if one doesn't trade the lower time frame, and, that losses are part of the
Signals Trading Method, above and beyond any errors the trader may make.
 
...
The Trading Method I'm working on is likely to generate a 'lot' of losses, but they should be small if a 'lot' of signals are taken and I CLOSE A LOSING TRADE IMMEDIATELY if the signals are false. The alternative is to try to be 'selective' and only take signals 'thought' to be winners.

If one will CLOSE A LOSING TRADE IMMEDIATELY and learn to TAKE PROFIT , then one can look forward to a profitable Trading Life.
More...

Remember the chart you pasted in the original starting post? You had all those "conditions" bracketed all nice and neat, marked up and whatever. Well, what does that tell you is going to happen in the future? On the very right side of your chart, did you take an entry and know what was going to happen?

Closing a losing trade immediately, over and over and over again, is going to do one thing and one thing only... Wipe out your account. Of course, that depends on one's definition of "immediate". 1 tic? 3? 10? What is an immediate loser?

And for the record...Who the hell wants a system that "generates a 'lot' of losses"? Dun' give a shit what your trading plan is...I don't want to take a lot of losses, big or small. You may wish to rethink your ideas before offering the system's prowess to the community-at-large. But then again, if it works for you and you are profitable, kudos!
 
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Hi Overnight, thanks for your comments and observations.
The thread should probably be in the Journals forum since I'm doing so much testing to find out what works.
Tell us about your trading system/method Overnight, how are trading decisions made ? how many Wins and Losses
do you have in a day, week, month ?

.......................

There's also the Entry Price to consider. I don't know but think it's likely I might have to give up up to one point to get
in, filled - haven't been checking to confirm what's going on. But that isn't a reflection of the Method, rather how the
Price may be moving at any particular moment.
This Method also requires constant attention otherwise I can miss a turn.
I almost have the feeling I've never traded before, because continually examining and revising this Signals Method
seems to raise questions I've never thought of before.

Lost the CFibo I was using but the PFibos and the Regression Channels on the 60 are still holding up, so the path
the Price is taking isn't into the unknown, but more of a mapped route.

My S&P 500 Projection Fibos: 161.8 ~ 2220.09 ~ ~ 200.0 ~ 2250.75 ~ ~ 261.8 ~ 2300.34 ~ ~ 361.8 ~ 2380.59

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There are occasions when the higher tf chart 'suggests' I can stay in the trade. But, and I have to But, there are other occasions when it's the lower tf that should paid attention to - traded.

Just Closed a demo trade based on the lower tf signal. The higher tf registered the price dip with the T3 going Blue on the space between 2 Price Bars, while the lower tf had 2 PBs change color as well as the gls crossing.

So I'm going back again to the idea that most signals are going to Have to be taken, but what else can one expect
when the charts are following the Price so closely.

A lot of the S&P Price movement appears to me to be one and two point moves, one point, Correction then one point from the Correction Low and so on. The Price's movement seems to have that appearance while the EURUSD by comparison has longer inter trends within the longer trend.

I wonder if the Price Action of the S&P is a result of the trading action of the500 stocks in the Index, or it's just a
matter of the ES is being traded for single points because of the $50 value of the point.

current Correction Fibo I'm using: 2239.750 ~ 2251.500

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Wallace said:
This thread is the result of reading iamnewuser911's thread:
' I have tried everything and nothing works (Technical analysis) '
Discussion in 'Forex' started by iamnewuser911, Nov 6, 2016



What's needed is something that gives a Buy/Sell signal.

The T3 or Tilson Indicator gives a 'signal' by changing color when the price changes from
Up to Down, Down to Up.

Attached is a NinjaTrader 1min chart, the Opening + about 3 hours from the Wed Nov 23
ES session, the last full trading day of last week.

Instrument: E-mini S&P 500 Index ~ ES ~ CME/Globex ~ $50 x Index Value ~ H,M,U,Z ~ 0.25 / $12.50
DayTrading Margin: US$400 ( $800 during US Election count ) OverNight Margin: $4,750.00
see: http://www.ampfutures.com/trading-info/margins/
RoundTurn Commission: $3:52 ( ? ) per Contract
NinjaTrader with CQG feed, free unlimited demo and live, Version 7 . NB: V 8 won't have 'custom'
Indicators converted from V 7.
Broker: http://www.ampfutures.com/

Blue dotted vertical line is the 9:30/6:30am NY Open
vertical lines are 5 min intervals
horizontal lines are 1 Point apart ~ $50 , 4 ticks to a point, 1 tick = $12.50
White line on the Price is a SMA 1 C
Yellow and Blue line is the NinjaTrader T3 Colored
settings: Paint Bars: True . Period: 3 . TCount: 3 . VFactor: 1 .
The T3 colors are set to match the GMACD: Parameters are 4 3 3 8 4 8 4 7 3 but
not necessarily optimized to the 1min chart.

View attachment 168420


The trading technique is to ONLY enter a trade when the GMACD is at an EXTREME, Closing
the trade when the trend expires, indicated by a new, opposite GMACD Extreme signal.

As seen on the chart, GMACD 'signals' aren't 'Absolutes', except perhaps at Extremes.
The T3 Colored tho, attached as it is to the Price, is Absolute, and one might ask —
"what's the point of using the GMACD then ?" — You'll have to answer that yourself ; )

The ES is the most liquid market in the world. Instant and I do mean instant fills and
fills can be at or 1 tick of Mkt Price. 1,000 and more contract orders don't usually cause
any spike or spread in price, at least during RTH.

Using the 'Basic Entry' order entry utility, clicking the ''REV' button will instantly Close the
current order and immediately Open the same position but in the opposite direction, fastest
means of Order Entry. REV; REV; REV; not recommended REVREVREVREVREVREVREV

One trading method is to 'trade for 1 point per day'.
As seen on the chart the Price is often more generous and several points can - theoretically
be obtained in 20 minutes or so.
Every 8 points of profit after commissions means that the number of contracts being traded
can be doubled ~ 8 points @ $50 per point = $400 = margin per contract, so,
1 poi nt x 1 contract = $50 , or x 10 contracts = $500 , or x 100 contracts = $5,000 and so on
so the p o t e n t i a l Daily, Weekly, Monthly profit can become substantial. Happy Trading.
More...
Huh?
 
The Talking Heads refer to this rally as the 'Trump Rally', later the'Trump Bump.
As far as I'm concerned, after the Election result - 'Sell on rumour Buy on news' when this rally began and has
turned into the the 'Fed's Rate Rally' - 'Buy on rumour Sell on news', and not withstanding those who contend the
1/4 point increase is already 'priced in' - who knows by whom - there should be, might be, could be a Correction
following Ms Yellen's annoucement.

meanwhile . . . setting up a new March contract Workspace I discovered the lower tf signals' chart was a virtual
5sec chart, which kinda explains why there were so many small signals.
So I've changed back to a Time based method, tho one that uses signals, and . . .
Dyno tested my 'NEW' Signal Method, I'll admit to a couple of rogue trades BUT, BUT, anyway there Was a
losing trade tho I don't know how it got in there, anyway, the results of trading one contract starting at today's
Opening and final Close at 11:05pm pst:
Total Trades: 14
Gross Profit: $1,106.00
Gross Loss: $-87.00
Commissions: $56.00
Net Profit: $1,019.00 now if the Market provides those sort of points and I can trade for them every day . . .


My March 2017 PFibos: 200.0 ~ 2233.25 . . . 261.8 ~ 2282.84 . . . 300.0 ~ 2313.60 . . . 361.8 ~ 2363.09

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In this environment, I'd rather trade smaller size for larger moves than vice versa. In the old days when the markets had more consistent movement, momentum and enabled you to trail a stop fast, you could probably trade the micro time frame's more confidently. But nowadays, the character of the market changes so much (day to day, week to week), that you will be constantly re-adjusting your parameters.
 
W.J. Feathermaker III: said:
. . . the character of the market changes so much . . . that
you will be constantly re-adjusting your parameters.
More...

Well That's for sure !

I didn't think about it in advance and it's what I've been learning about this past week.
What it seems to boil down to is finding that best average of signalling that's able to take advantage of what the
market's doing/offering at any particular time that one's willing to trade.
What's tempting is the $50 per point that tickles every gambler's conciousness.

The alternate to gamble-trading is Day-to-Day/s-to-Weeks trading:
from the Fri Dec 2 C of 2186.75 to the Tue Dec 13 C of 2267.50 = 80.75 x $50 = $4,037.50
One o/n contract requires $4,750 unless, one Closes prior to the Daily Close and re-enters the Market when it
re-opens. If so, one's then able to double, in theory, 10 times during that trend.
...............................................

My current CFibo: 2227.750 2273.000

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