simple ES 1min chart trading

[Wallace]

This thread is the result of reading iamnewuser911's thread:
' I have tried everything and nothing works (Technical analysis) '
Discussion in 'Forex' started by iamnewuser911, Nov 6, 2016


What's needed is something that gives a Buy/Sell signal.

The T3 or Tilson Indicator gives a 'signal' by changing color when the price changes from
Up to Down, Down to Up.

Attached is a NinjaTrader 1min chart, the Opening + about 3 hours from the Wed Nov 23
ES session, the last full trading day of last week.

Instrument: E-mini S&P 500 Index ~ ES ~ CME/Globex ~ $50 x Index Value ~ H,M,U,Z ~ 0.25 / $12.50
DayTrading Margin: US$400 ( $800 during US Election count ) OverNight Margin: $4,750.00
see: http://www.ampfutures.com/trading-info/margins/
RoundTurn Commission: $3:52 ( ? ) per Contract
NinjaTrader with CQG feed, free unlimited demo and live, Version 7 . NB: V 8 won't have 'custom'
Indicators converted from V 7.
Broker: http://www.ampfutures.com/

Blue dotted vertical line is the 9:30/6:30am NY Open
vertical lines are 5 min intervals
horizontal lines are 1 Point apart ~ $50 , 4 ticks to a point, 1 tick = $12.50
White line on the Price is a SMA 1 C
Yellow and Blue line is the NinjaTrader T3 Colored
settings: Paint Bars: True . Period: 3 . TCount: 3 . VFactor: 1 .
The T3 colors are set to match the GMACD: Parameters are 4 3 3 8 4 8 4 7 3 but
not necessarily optimized to the 1min chart.

The trading technique is to ONLY enter a trade when the GMACD is at an EXTREME, Closing
the trade when the trend expires, indicated by a new, opposite GMACD Extreme signal.

As seen on the chart, GMACD 'signals' aren't 'Absolutes', except perhaps at Extremes.
The T3 Colored tho, attached as it is to the Price, is Absolute, and one might ask —
"what's the point of using the GMACD then ?" — You'll have to answer that yourself ; )

The ES is the most liquid market in the world. Instant and I do mean instant fills and
fills can be at or 1 tick of Mkt Price. 1,000 and more contract orders don't usually cause
any spike or spread in price, at least during RTH.

Using the 'Basic Entry' order entry utility, clicking the ''REV' button will instantly Close the
current order and immediately Open the same position but in the opposite direction, fastest
means of Order Entry. REV; REV; REV; not recommended REVREVREVREVREVREVREV

One trading method is to 'trade for 1 point per day'.
As seen on the chart the Price is often more generous and several points can - theoretically
be obtained in 20 minutes or so.
Every 8 points of profit after commissions means that the number of contracts being traded
can be doubled ~ 8 points @ $50 per point = $400 = margin per contract, so,
1 poi nt x 1 contract = $50 , or x 10 contracts = $500 , or x 100 contracts = $5,000 and so on
so the p o t e n t i a l Daily, Weekly, Monthly profit can become substantial. Happy Trading.

 

[algofy]

What's the entry method, color changes ?

 

[kent]

One trading method is to 'trade for 1 point per day'.
As seen on the chart the Price is often more generous and several points can - theoretically
be obtained in 20 minutes or so.
Every 8 points of profit after commissions means that the number of contracts being traded
can be doubled ~ 8 points @ $50 per point = $400 = margin per contract, so,
1 poi nt x 1 contract = $50 , or x 10 contracts = $500 , or x 100 contracts = $5,000 and so on
so the p o t e n t i a l Daily, Weekly, Monthly profit can become substantial. Happy Trading.

Please Explain in comparison to Forex Spot market.
1) How many $ per pip or unit of movement up or down?
2) How much risk per reward?
3) Do futures move similar to currency pairs? For example does any forex future for gbp/jpy will move similar to the spot fx gbpjpy?

 

[Turveyd]

This is pretty much what I'm doing but in a different wrapper.

Jump on current momo judged by your colour change, you want a small pull back to enter with, a big pull back is likely direction change, gets tricky.

Got to keep your SL tight, keep nudging it up under the momo.

When it starts to get weak to high odds on turn don't bother.

Never try to pick a top / bottom and trade counter trend.

Or works well, but it's never easy to trade live.

I trade near Max on margin to, i run at 10% left a day calc in my head, and if you forget to pour SL in having a stupid moment at - 10% margin call takes you out, keeping losses under control.

KISS!

 

[Wallace]

algofy: yes, and see below

kent: 1: $12.50 per tick, $50 per point 2: don't know 3: yes - eur/usd. In addition, you'll see the Volume per trade
if you have a 1min or seconds chart up. You'll see how the price spreads 10, 20, 30 !!! pips on an order of one
hundred contracts. Doesn't happen with the ES until multi thousand contract trades enter the market and then
the spread may only be 1 - 2 points.

Turveyd: I don't use SLs.

First chart without the T3Colored, sized to display the Opening hour.

Most of this type of trading is Subjective; the trader may have some rules but, Entries and Exits are based on the
trader's interpretation/judgement about 'the signal'.
The best I've come up with is to try and ONLY trade when the GMACD crosses are at their Extremes.

When I first discovered the gmacd (MetaTrader and fx days), I didn't realize it was a macd. It looked pretty and
I put it on all my charts for the sole purpose of lifting the chart off the bottom of the page.
It wasn't until I got to ES trading that I began to use the gmacd as a trading signal generator.
The problem for me tho was entering trades Without First looking at the gmacd — lots of losing trades.
When I discovered the T3 I thought it replicated the gmacd's lines crossings quite well, so I'd be looking at the
gmacd as well as the price bars.
I'm finally trained enough to look at the gmacd Before entering a new trade and no longer use the T3 .

In theory, one only uses the 1min chart, one isn't distracted looking at other time frame charts. And one is
'always in' the market, hence the use of the REV button.

The next two charts illustrate 'must have' 'gap lines' and Fibonacci levels/lines on the chart, Every chart I use.
I'd better state that in the Workspace I have 1, 10, 60, 240, D, W and M, but after I've analyzed the charts prior
to trading and making notes/comments, only display the 1min and a 5sec chart with Volume on it, no gmacd,
just want to keep an occasional eye on the Volume.

illustrates where the fibos were drawn from and to.

closer look at the Price interacting with the lines during the whole trading day.

Being Disciplined and Only trading the gmacd Extremes, should eliminate losses due to price reversals and
what turn out to be incorrect entries.
I don't believe any additional indicators such as envelopes, Bollinger Bands, multiple MAs are of any benefit.
I always have an SMA 1 C on all my charts to distinguish the HC and LC and the price waves.
When it comes to 'trends'; on the first chart, some trends lasted 2 or 3 minutes while the trend that began at
7:33am lasted till 7:47 , sideways till 7:55 then down for another 2.5 points until 8:01/8:02am.

Trading a 1min chart is a Lot of work. I think it's a matter of knowing one's temperament so one can match a
chart time frame with one's temperament that one feels most comfortable trading.

If one's trading method produces a guaranteed 1 point profit per day, after which one stops trading for the day,
doubling the number of contracts traded every 9th trading day means that the $400 used to trade 1 contract on
Day 1 will result, , , possibly, , , maybe, , , absolutely, after a conservative 22 weeks, in trading 1,000 contracts
where 1 point now has a value of $50,000 .

hmmmmm, that's a million a month isn't it ?

 

[algofy]

Thanks Wallace. How many contracts are you up to now?

 

[Wallace]

algofy: 5

Well trying to trade the 1min this morning turned into a pos for me. Fortunately I was sim trading otherwise I'd have
wiped my account out.

I've now dropped the 1min chart and after comparing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5min charts decided on a 150sec chart - 2.5mins
which you see displayed.
I didn't want to use the 5min chart as I thought its signals a bit slow.
I recommend you do your own testing and see if there's a time/gmacd formation you like better than another.

The 150sec chart is also 'backed-up' with a 10min chart - next - which helps I think a great deal — need to confirm
this — to reduce if not eliminate the noise in the 150sec so one may be able to see better whether one stays in a
trade, Closes it, Enters a trade or not when there appears to be contractions between what the gmacd is signaling
and what the price is doing, as seen in the 12:12 to 12:52 period.
Again I preferred the 10min to the 15 and actually is the first time I've ever used the 10min time frame.

There are 9 strong trade signals and 3 that were dubious. Potentially, about 36 points profit, and the opportunity to
double contracts traded 4 times ~ 36 / 8 = 4 .

An S or B is a straight Sell or Buy, RS and RB are REV/Reverse Sell or Buy.
The amplitude of some of the gmacd peaks and troughs don't result in an equally large price move, but every little bit
helps and the signals Have to be traded or it defeats the purpose of using the gmacd to obtain B/S signals.

How far away from the red zero line should the gmacd line crossings be in order to say 'it's a B/S signal' ?
The second RB was Very close to the line but yielded about 4 points.
The RB ?? RS and RB ?? group of signals: the first RB ?? signal changed from B to S to B to S then a final B for a
possible 1+ point. The RS had to be taken even tho it may not have been a profitable trade. The 10 min chart doesn't
give much assistance, so I think one needs a rule to 'stay out' or, one takes one's chances.

The left hand circle appears to suggest a Correction then a continuing price rise.
The right hand circle is a similar Correction for the price, but, the gmacd lines are far from simple, and wouldn't you
have done an RB based on the gmacd lines on the 150sec chart ?
While I don't believe the 10min gmacd lines can be used to for trading signals, while there's a jink in the lines there
was nothing to suggest that the RS should have been changed to an RB.

Will see tomorrow if I can make some money, how're You doing ?

 

[algofy]

Thanks for the insight on how you view the market Wallace....I got chopped to pieces today....was up decent size early and got smoked mid morning to the close.

 

[Turveyd]

Got to stick to jumping on fast momo boys, where the risk is limited via a SL or you'll let it run against you and the upside is potentially huge, chop is too unpredictable just avoid.

Always in system ofcourse your stuck trading chop.

And how high/hard your running your margin, even small moves against you are going get to bang your head on margin call, kick you out and make you setup again with less contracts.

 

[Wallace]

algofy: glad to help, but there's another change . . . however there's a 'warning before use' this time.

Turveyd: what can I say, each to his own.

Well the day started quite well with 4 x 1 contract 150sec chart Demo trades, Gross Profit $275 . Forgot to get an
image of the trades, something I always do when live trading. Then it happened, I moved to , , , the Dark Side.

I'm waiting for a signal but the 2.5min bars were taking too long, Much too long to form the rounding bottom, and I
had to go , , , to the 5sec chart.
Remember 'one's temperament' ? well mine is such that I'm 'detail oriented' - think, picking fly shit out of pepper,
while the other part of that is, Analysis, I, am an Analyst.

Reset the demo account, no trades recorded, initial margin again. I've got a 5sec template that's got a gmacd
on it. I entered at least one trade but think I started losing and ended up deleting the 5sec chart, the gmacd just
wasn't working, I'll just use the 150sec, hah ! famous last words.
Enter a Sell then go lie on the sofa; I'm not too fussed about following the trade, and after a couple of minutes start
thinking of the 5sec chart again. Decide I'll try and optimize the gmacd for the 5sec . A few more minutes then I'm
back at the computer looking in the Templates folder and find what I think's a 'clean' 5 sec Template; apply it to the
chart and, what's this — what appears to be a gmacd optimized for the 5 sec chart.
Close the trade, then decide I've Closed it too soon. Enter a Sell at 9:14:20 , then I'm doing something else and don't
keep track of the trade. Had I kept track I might have got out with a 3 tick profit and an RB entered.
Now I start 'Rogue Trading' - wth, it's only demo trading eh ? - Sell at 9:48:10 then another at 10:24:15 .
Resist entering Another Sell at 10:50 or so -HH, no need to get stupid about it.
The Price finally declines and I exit at 11:07 . See the other trades on the chart.
I usually stop paying attention to the market around noon PST, switch the channel to the local station to watch the
news, and start thinking about lunch, and I see now missed a 12 point rally/decline during my lunch hour.
Think I'm going to make myself a butty in the morning so I can eat at the computer at lunchtime, 12 points, that's
another opportunity to double the quantity of contracts traded ! ! !

So I was doing a couple of things.
When the Price starts making new Highs, one has to use Projection Fibos, that is if one works with Fibos.
PF are nowhere as easy to use a Correction Fibos, because there's no Price/s, Waves or anything else 'up there'
which one can 'yardstick' with, and I'm never comfortable until there's a Decline and I get to draw some CFs on the
chart/s. So, is there something else that can help ?

Channel Lines. My preference is SECs - Standard Error Channels, Ninja doesn't have them so it's Regression Cs
which aren't too far off SECs.
All Channel tools have their fulcrum anchored on the first Price Bar they're drawn from; as the Price progresses over
the succeeding seconds, hours, Days, Weeks, Months or Years, the Channel/s can be adjusted on-the-fly and still
retain their validity - a pathway, set of rails etc the Price will, travel along. What Channels will also do is intersect with
PF Levels/Lines.
I now have a 10 min, 150sec and 5min charts staggered on top of one another on the left hand side of the screen
about 1/3 of the 22" monitor, the 5sec chart about 1/3 of the screen, then the Basic Entry and 60min chart on the
remainder of the screen.

First chart is the 150sec:

that first C drawn from the far Left was to illustrate how Cs can be used to obtain the point where a 'Change of Trend'
may occur, and, to determine a Price Trend's H or L.
Think the first C I drew on the chart was the narrow rising one, then the ones from the HH, although I see now that
was out by 1 PB, easy to do.
The Cs coming from the Left edge are drawn from near the beginning of the day after the Election.
I've tried Gann Lines, Fibo Cs, Andrew's/Pitchfork Lines but never improved on the results I've obtained using a basic
C tool.
Draw the first channel, then Copy, Paste and adjust the distance of other Channels for 'side expansion'.

Try drawing Cs on your 60min chart:
start rising Cs from: Mon Nov 14 , 10:00 (am)
start today's C's from: Wed Nov 30 , 6:00 (am)

The next image is two parts from my work/trading 5sec chart where trades were made, to give you an idea of what
the gmacd signals look like. The Cs were not drawn, but a CopyPaste from one of the 150sec chart Channels, then
CopyPaste from that C. I left the Fibos off the chart and deleted those on the 150sec and just relied on those on the
10 and 60min charts.

The original Fibos have expired and currently there's just one fibo that's been drawn on the 60min chart.
The 60's Cs were re-adjusted with the Median Line placed on today's HH, then the other Cs re-aligned to that C.
A couple of the higher Cs were re-set to 9 and 10 to extend the lower channel line below the current Price level.

Oh, and demo test trade the 5sec gmacd signals First, before risking real money. And another thing I've remembered:
trading the 5sec means small runs, a point or two. More often based on a limited view one could be trading for a
couple of ticks. There is tho 'I think' the opportunity to Exit a trade quickly limiting losses and/or clicking the REV.

Think 5sec trading'll be fun.