Simple defense of technical analysis

[oldtime]

Quote from ammo:

TA is just a tool,no different than the ones in the basement or garage,they don't work,You use them when You work, to make the job easier,the more familiar you are with a tool,the more adept you are at using it ,,, i 'm working on a way to teach the snowblower to know when it snows and go out and clear the snow on it's on....until then it's just a tool and i still have to do the work

maybe so, but the original idea was to track how most people act most of the time.

That has been lost. Technicians are no longer tracking people. I don't know what they are tracking, but it isn't people.

 

[Random.Capital]

Quote from MathAndLogic:


I guess it is the human factors that are missing when those authors do their "evidence based analysis of technical analysis."

There is no "human factor" in technical analysis. If there is a human factor, it's no longer technical analysis.

You are effectively making an argument against your own position, not for it.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Random.Capital:

There is no "human factor" in technical analysis. If there is a human factor, it's no longer technical analysis.

You are effectively making an argument against your own position, not for it.

well, different strokes for different folks, that's what makes a market. If we all agreed there would be nothing to bet on.

I'm pretty sure I'm right and you are wrong.

We should bet on it.

The "human factor" is the only value of TA

That's what it's all about

Take out the "human factor" and all you are left with is a bunch of technicians.

 

[ammo]

Quote from oldtime:

maybe so, but the original idea was to track how most people act most of the time.

That has been lost. Technicians are no longer tracking people. I don't know what they are tracking, but it isn't people.

best to track the large money, they turn the markets,if you can spot that ,you could live on a few well placed trades each month ,ta detective work is the only way most of us non insider info plebes have

 

[oldtime]

Quote from ammo:

best to track the large money, they turn the markets,if you can spot that ,you could live on a few well placed trades each month ,ta detective work is the only way most of us non insider info plebes have

no kidding, I took five years off from the markets and just thought I would start trading corn again.

Oh no my friend, it's a whole new game when big Goldman Sachs suddenly takes an interest in my little itty bitty corn.

 

[Mr_You]

Threads like these are a perfect example of human behavior. Humans attack that which they don't understand or doesn't fit their views.

The number of technical analysis indicators has grown over the decades and with the changing of the markets. This adds to the confusion. Some methods developed 40 years ago may still work while some methods developed 10 years ago may not.

I do wonder if I personally benefit from letting these nay sayers perpetuating a myth that a method doesn't work. In the end the proof is in the individual traders equity curve and he/she is only held accountable to themselves.

I personally believe in investigating a multitude of trading methods. I've found one TA method I like and next I'll begin to investigate non-TA methods. Why restrict ones self?

I'll also add that I've put a couple "respected" folks on ignore because, IMO, they've lost some credibility by discounting groups of traders who are obviously making money and so I have to question their judgement. I will occasionally read their quote in a reply, but it often confirms my reasoning.

To each their own.

 

[taowave]

If you are going to make an analogy to the martial arts,then I would look what at what the UFC has clearly demonstrated.You need an all around game to be highly successful.

The belief,or should I say myth that being proficient in one style will get you the belt(or survive) has been shattered one the clear use of steroids and ground and pound has been removed.

The best fighters can strike,grapple,have a decent takedown defense and are in phenomenol shape.They are well rounded.

So,if that approach works in the UFC which is the ultimate test putting talk to rest,than a trader should follow the same path. Technical analysis MAY be the foundation,but a solid grasp of fundamentals and derivatives should make a good trader that much better

T

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Mr_You:

Threads like these are a perfect example of human behavior. Humans attack that which they don't understand or doesn't fit their views.

The number of technical analysis indicators has grown over the decades and with the changing of the markets. This adds to the confusion. Some methods developed 40 years ago may still work while some methods developed 10 years ago may not.

I do wonder if I personally benefit from letting these nay sayers perpetuating a myth that a method doesn't work. In the end the proof is in the individual traders equity curve and he/she is only held accountable to themselves.

I personally believe in investigating a multitude of trading methods. I've found one TA method I like and next I'll begin to investigate non-TA methods. Why restrict ones self?

I'll also add that I've put a couple "respected" folks on ignore because, IMO, they've lost some credibility by discounting groups of traders who are obviously making money and so I have to question their judgement. I will occasionally read their quote in a reply, but it often confirms my reasoning.

To each their own.

yes, putting people on "Ignore" should help. One must always protect themselves from too much information. I only like reading posts from people who agree with me. The other ones make me feel bad.

 

[ammo]

Quote from taowave:

If you are going to make an analogy to the martial arts,then I would look what at what the UFC has clearly demonstrated.You need an all around game to be highly successful.

The belief,or should I say myth that being proficient in one style will get you the belt(or survive) has been shattered one the clear use of steroids and ground and pound has been removed.

The best fighters can strike,grapple,have a decent takedown defense and are in phenomenol shape.They are well rounded.

So,if that approach works in the UFC which is the ultimate test putting talk to rest,than a trader should follow the same path. Technical analysis MAY be the foundation,but a solid grasp of fundamentals and derivatives should make a good trader that much better

T

havent a lot of knowledge in ufc but i was under the impression that those strongest in wrestling had an advantage,wonder what skill would count as the strongest to have in reading the market along with the others

 

[toc]

Regarding TA defense, here is another logic............markets soon ditch a product that does not prove its worth, be it running shoes a new model car or a trading system etc. TA has been around for decades and getting more advanced. This alone proves that TA works for those who learn to tune it to their trading styles.