Silver looks fairly near a top

I'm having a pretty difficult time reconciling how things evolve now that we've got all of these ETF's (paper market) competing with demand for physical. In the past, the ETF's at least could divert interest from the populace towards converting out of dollars and into the physical. Nowadays, we keep seeing shortages of smaller silver pieces and huge premiums over the spot market.

I've no doubt that the ETF's are the blunt force instrument that are used to try and kill demand for the physical, it's far too obvious. But how do we even remotely compare these types of events to something historical.
 
Why don't you buy real estate instead of commodities if you are worried about the value of the dollar. The precious models seem like a bubble. The same way people talked about high tech stocks and real estate, people are now talking about gold and silver. There are "special market forces" for this specific asset which don't apply to any other assets.

Robert Shillers checklist for a market to be a bubble.


" Sharp increases in the price of an asset like real estate or dot-com shares
Great public excitement about said increases
An accompanying media frenzy
Stories of people earning a lot of money, causing envy among people who aren’t
Growing interest in the asset class among the general public
“New era” theories to justify unprecedented price increases
A decline in lending standards
"

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/01/27/schillers-list-how-to-diagnose-the-next-bubble/
 
Quote from veritas007:

Why don't you buy real estate instead of commodities if you are worried about the value of the dollar. The precious models seem like a bubble.
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Do all your friends own gold and silver? Is everybody talking about it? Do investment places have their clients in gold and silver to any meaningful degree? Are the silver and gold miners participating in this precious metals rally? There is so much disbelief about the move in the precious metals that I would say there is no bubble. And by the way, a lot of people are calling the precious metals move a bubble but almost no one was calling the internet and housing moves a bubble until after the fact.
 
I wouldn't touch housing, far too illiquid and the consummate trap. As these municipalities continue to decline, property owners will continually become their stop gap measure for raising revenue. If you're of the mindset that this economic malaise isn't going away any time soon, then the quality of the renter will also fall apart.

With all of this political and economic uncertainty, I really won't be surprised if the markets oscillate between deflation and inflation much more frequently in the coming years. We've got to remember that "Round one" in their battle to combat the effects of the shadow banking systemic collapse was politically palatable. IOW, they had room to inflate off of the commodities collapse in 2008. Now, not so much. In order to justify more and more rounds of QE, the commodities complex will have to have deflation scares periodically and they will be brutal. However, with the groupthink and concentrated risk in fewer TBTF's, these sharp moves definitely risk much greater structural damage IMO. The markets are too thin, too illiquid and too algo-driven at this point to handle any "surprises". Hence, Bubble Ben is always extremely coddling towards these groupthink trades.
 
I can't see silver going much lower. I don't care if goes to 25$. I'm starting to buy here @35.75$

This is a long-term play. I can't screw around and pinpoint entries for multi-year positions.
 
Quote from achilles28:

I can't see silver going much lower. I don't care if goes to 25$. I'm starting to buy here @35.75$

This is a long-term play. I can't screw around and pinpoint entries for multi-year positions.
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I'm pretty sure I'm going to pick up some more physical on the 10th of this month (a day after they raise margin again) That should shake out the last of the weak hands. I'm almost drooling right now thinking about getting more silver.
 
Quote from peilthetraveler:

I'm pretty sure I'm going to pick up some more physical on the 10th of this month (a day after they raise margin again) That should shake out the last of the weak hands. I'm almost drooling right now thinking about getting more silver.
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I know. I can't believe it's sold off this far. Yea, May 10 is a good time to buy. Good idea. Thanks.
 
Question for you two guys: Any word of mouth as to whether these dealers are even making immediate delivery? I've heard and read about many instances where people lock in prices but the delays are immense (currently).

This has gotta be one of the all time biggest cognitive dissonance events I've ever witnessed. Nobody can even deny the simple fact that physical demand has never been higher, but the ability to literally rape and pillage the paper market remains the last vestige of hope in trying to force the hand of the physical.

The morons trotting around high five-ing each other because of this massive sell-off should take a closer look at what's going on beneath the surface.
 
So far it seems only american eagles are not available for immediate delivery, but sometimes these website dont tell you if they deliver right away or not. Apmex says they ship their generic silver within 3 business days, so thats not too bad.
 
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