Silver looks fairly near a top

I've exited most (about 2/3) of my bearish put bets for now, as my initial 15% selloff target was hit (N.B. no I didn't catch the globex lows, exited once I saw what happened overnight).

I suspect silver may rebound and break the $50 level in the next few days, trigger some more buying, and then put in a top there, maybe $53-56. Because of the risk, I will again be playing this purely with options. Some front-month $50 and 55 calls to play the potential spike up in the next few days, then if this works I will roll half the profits into some $50, 45, and 40 puts for July and Sep.
 
^My longs got stopped out around the 45 handle for ~breakeven. Didn't bother to pull the chart on Friday and paid the price. I'm not sure how to read the gap down bull candle on the daily. On the 8 hour, 4 hour and 1 hour, it's definitely a bear trend. I'll wait for a reversal on the 1 hour before I add more longs.
 
I own some physical. I want to add more. This gap down open on the daily is looking very much like the start of bear trend. The macro trend is still up, but looks like we're in store for a multi-day pullback. A daily close tonight below 45 handle should lock that in. Right now, I'm looking for a potential mini rally off the 5 minute. Silver is absolutely moving crazy. Haven't it seen it this volatile....ever.
 
Well, obviously exiting those puts was a blunder. I just exited the rest of my puts now. It could go lower (maybe even $32) but down almost 30% in a week is enough for me. I will reload puts if it rallies back above $40 (ideally $42 would be a great short entry IMO), and I may start nibbling at calls if it reaches the low $30s.

My view (pretty obvious really) is that the silver bull is decisively broken for at least the next 2-3 months, and that it is now a bear trend. As such, the correct strategy is buy puts on substantial rallies into overhead resistance, and exit them into notable weakness at significant new lows. Only put on small call positions if there is true panic liquidation to the downside. This will continue as my approach to silver until the market shows clear signs that the downtrend has been broken, or the downward momentum stalls and fizzles out.
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Well, obviously exiting those puts was a blunder. I just exited the rest of my puts now. It could go lower (maybe even $32) but down almost 30% in a week is enough for me. I will reload puts if it rallies back above $40 (ideally $42 would be a great short entry IMO), and I may start nibbling at calls if it reaches the low $30s.

My view (pretty obvious really) is that the silver bull is decisively broken for at least the next 2-3 months, and that it is now a bear trend. As such, the correct strategy is buy puts on substantial rallies into overhead resistance, and exit them into notable weakness at significant new lows. Only put on small call positions if there is true panic liquidation to the downside. This will continue as my approach to silver until the market shows clear signs that the downtrend has been broken, or the downward momentum stalls and fizzles out.
More...

You're going to be proven wrong. It's a correction that needed to happen but it is so forced & manipulated that it won't sustain long.

The physical bullion market is speaking otherwise.
 
I think there are alot of people like me who are just waiting until after the 9th to go out and purchase their physical. I personally havent bought any more physical since 2009, but with prices getting this low, its hard not to buy. People are crazy if they think silver isnt going back to $50 per oz
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top