Silver, Gold - Multi Year TOP Formed

Quote from PMInterloper:

ehsmama:

by the time the tech bubble popped the cab drivers and pizza delivery boys were talking about it. There were TV shows about it, the news and papers were full of it. Gold is *no where near* that level just now. I believe one day it will be but I also believe that is about 5 or 6 years away, may be more. I think a comparison to the tech bubble would put us more like '93, '94

The short term may be down a bit, but to me that is a buying opportunity. The trend for PMs is up, the trend for the USD is down but I don't really concern myself with short term bumps and judders.

4 to 5 years ... one of us is correct.

:-)
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Don't you think that a parabolic rise means that trend has run its course?
When according to you trend ends?
 
Quote from PMInterloper:

ehsmama:

by the time the tech bubble popped the cab drivers and pizza delivery boys were talking about it. There were TV shows about it, the news and papers were full of it. Gold is *no where near* that level just now. I believe one day it will be but I also believe that is about 5 or 6 years away, may be more. I think a comparison to the tech bubble would put us more like '93, '94

The short term may be down a bit, but to me that is a buying opportunity. The trend for PMs is up, the trend for the USD is down but I don't really concern myself with short term bumps and judders.

4 to 5 years ... one of us is correct.

:-)
More...

The thing is Wall Street is in the business of marketing stocks, it's not in the business of marketing metals. In fact, it's the last thing that they would want to pump to kingdom come for a variety of reasons. For that very reason, even if/when the metals do top out, I don't believe it will experience a stage where all the talk will be about gold and silver.

I mean let's face it, not all parabolic moves are accompanied by alot of public interest. I kind of doubt any of the soybean or cattle or sugar or coffee or cattle or, etc, etc, etc moves were accompanied by alot of cocktail chatter about their prices. No, they were well known to those in the industry and the chatter was loud, just as it has been with the metals on message boards and other places the past 3-4 months.
 
The move doesnt look to be a parabolic top yet to me.

I am looking at purchasing the Jun 140 C or the Jul 145 C tomorrow.
 
ehsmama:
imo trend will end with gold over $3000oz, maybe 10 years or so - parabolic? ... this thing hasn't even started yet.


der_kommisar:
when your proverbial brother-in-law is talking about how wonderfully his gold stocks are doing, that's the top and time to sell
 
In my opinion the next Fed meeting is the most important for the year. I believe they will keep raising rates at the expense of the economy. IMO Gold has peaked however I have shorted Newmont and bought big time into a little Aussie gold producer so I will have a bet each way in case I am wrong. :D
 
I agree with PMInter on the GOLD still in a big bull market.
However, don't be under the impression that common man isn;t buying.
The recent runup since good friday break could be due to lot of common folks buying it.
The reason I say it is because, I have first hand information on how people lined up in India to buy gold during April ! There were lot of common folks buying it for the long haul. The word on the street is it is going higher and you wont see the current prices.
Interestingly, even in USA I recently heard a couple of advertisement on radio (while driving back from work) for investing in GOLD one was some kinda mututal fund (just like we saw internet mutual funds during 1999,2000 time...during the tail end of the rally....and we all know how they ended ...) and the other was buying spot from kitco I think.
And of course our own CNBC has been talking up GOLD for quite some time.

So, there is much more awareness in common folk and the recent selloff from the highs and last 5-6 days volatility is saying something. May be my brother-in-law is buying after all. :-)
Best,
-Zero
 
Quote from PMInterloper:

ehsmama:
imo trend will end with gold over $3000oz, maybe 10 years or so - parabolic? ... this thing hasn't even started yet.


der_kommisar:
when your proverbial brother-in-law is talking about how wonderfully his gold stocks are doing, that's the top and time to sell
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PMInterloper,
Are you still holding your Bag of Gold. Looks like 600 will break this month. What will you do then?
The only way to avoid margin calls - Short Silver and Gold. I think once 600 breaks, the train will gather steam to 550.
 
I've been in this for a few years now...so I have a good cushion and since I'm in this for the longer term a trip down to 550 won't faze me in the slightest...quite the opposite - I'll back up the truck at those prices.

If a new comer to this then imo as long as one has a good cushion to commit, say $20k per contract, one can seriously look for entries: I'm still waiting at this point altho we all have our personal opinions on this. I see this as a bull market and I have no plans whatsoever to short Au or Ag.

Stocks and options are low risk so there is little to say there imo: I don't really do options much and my stocks are not for sale.

jm2cw
 
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