Silver ETF (SLV)
- Thread starter romik
- Start date
In addition, there was the wildly bullish sentiment, which set a record for ANY market. Still looks to me like we're on our way to $7, but I'm sure there'll be some bounces back up to give the "buy the dips" bulls hope so they hang on to or even add to their positions.
I see perma-bull Butler is still screaming "MANIPULATION!" It's the same old story after an exponential run up breaks down (as they always do). "I'm really right, really I am! The market HAS to go up and if it doesn't, it's someone else's fault - it's THEM, not ME!"
Butler is just another shill for precious metals dealers. To the bulls who believe, he sounds like he knows what he's talking about. I suspect he'll never say "sell", so when he fades away because the bulls who've been slaughtered don't want to hear his "reasons" any more, THEN it'll be time to think about buying.
It all boils down to what you believe in? I do not daytrade/swing trade silver, so for me it is a matter of belief to a certain degree. The reason I am checking out charts is because I would add to my position, but I would like it to be as near the bottom as possible. Whether it goes to $7 or not neither of us know, I personally think it to be unlikely, though I did consider $10 range to be a short term possibility.
Thank you for the "clue", I really appreciate that advice and silly me thought that price is not supply/demand dependant
In regards to manipulation theories, what's there not to believe, all data is recorded or is it not? I have confronted government regulators on quite a few occasions on various issues and they are always right and you are always wrong. So tell me this, why was Hunt's case considered manipulative and major short interest backed by commercial/government interests is ignored? What is different between the 2?
I will add another 600 shares at first sign of reversal on daily charts.
My "belief" is in the perfect track record of post-exponential market moves going all the way back to the Tulip Mania and the South Sea Bubble. Every single one retraced the entire move or more. That's why I said $7 in my post in early May. It could be we're headed for around $4 as that's where the bottom of the curve starts. What'll be worth watching is what the sentiment looks like then. If it's gloomy enough and enough time has passed, (probably a few years), it'll be time to buy.
My "belief" is further reinforced when I read posts by people who are itching to add to their positions when silver gives some technical evidence of a "bottom". I think that's known as "averaging down". That said, I also "believe" at some point, silver WILL rally, because few markets go straight down (not that they can't, of course). Those who got long late in the bull move might get an opportunity to cut their losses, or even gain a bit, but if there IS a rally, very few will. They'll be all over the boards saying, "See, we were right!"
I never cease to be amazed at how many times this same scenario plays out and in how many different markets.
With regard to manipulation, I'll stipulate it's possible and might even be true. I don't know and I don't care. I also don't care if the moon and the stars made it go up or made it go down.
There's something strange about humans that makes us desperate to have "reasons" and "beliefs" to explain things. Pick any religion and observe the wacky bullshit people are willing to "believe" and kill other people over because someone wrote down some ludicrous blather in a book X number of years ago.
Romik, even if you had knowledge at the time of what the Hunt's were doing, I submit it simply would not have mattered. What mattered was the market got into a mania phase. Virtually everyone was bullish, and lo and behold, the precious metals dumped back to below the starting point of the exponential rise. I've heard blame placed on the Hunt's and the COMEX and there are probably other theories. The bottom line is, it was foreseeable that a collapse would happen because that is the inevitable outcome of every market that enters a mania phase.
So, I'll stay with observation of historical precedent as it relates to investor sentiment and behavior. Best wishes with your beliefs. I hope the bounce, if it comes, helps you.
Well...you could be right, I am a sensible guy and looking at charts right now, yes, it might tank to $7, there is simply too much selling pressure, BUT, I keep repeating myself here, that is exactly the reason why I do not daytrade silver, for me, and if not in my life time, but perhaps my children will benefit from this investment, I am certain of that, there is no justification for current valuations of silver apart from users demand for cheap silver, why is it SO MUCH cheaper than gold?