I agree with this, with one caveat: despite the macro regime change, BTC still has NOT deviated from its long term cyclical patterns. (If you don't believe me, go back and do the calculations.) So, it could be true that this time it will be different due to a different macro environment - and I'm in the camp that this is a real possibility - but it is not true that BTC prices have provided evidence yet that the macro change is the cause of the most recent price decline. So far, the two events (macro and 'natural' BTC cycle) just happen to coincide and as far as I can tell, there's no way to separate the two. Time will tell...
Signs when the BTC bear market may be coming to an end?
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I agree with this, with one caveat: despite the macro regime change, BTC still has NOT deviated from its long term cyclical patterns. (If you don't believe me, go back and do the calculations.) So, it could be true that this time it will be different due to a different macro environment - and I'm in the camp that this is a real possibility - but it is not true that BTC prices have provided evidence yet that the macro change is the cause of the most recent price decline. So far, the two events (macro and 'natural' BTC cycle) just happen to coincide and as far as I can tell, there's no way to separate the two. Time will tell...
MMT nonsense on interest rates redux.
Once BTC broke a certain level/market cap, the correlation got tight, with a X4 acceleration.
True it might be cyclical, or the 70k ATH could be there for decades... Who knows.
But if the correlation sticks, following the fed might be the thing.
Contagion is still there. Even the Winklevoss Twins can't sleep well at nights.
If Grayscale is forced to liquidate, we may very well see another leg or two down
If Grayscale is forced to liquidate, we may very well see another leg or two down
I'm trying to understand your comment. Do you somehow think I'm a proponent of MMT??
By 'macro regime change' all I mean is central banks are raising interest rates now (and that affects asset prices) and by 'regime change' I mean it in the statistical sense of a 'regime switching model'... nothing to do with MMT. In other words, interest rates are rising so a regime switching model might change its parameters; I have other models that do change their parameters when there is a substantial change in interest rates. Bitcoin models don't seem to require regime changing at this point.
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I think it's a pertinent question to ask.
Throughout its short history, Bitcoin has only ever existed in a climate of low inflation, low interest rates/QE and relatively benign market conditions (a very long equity bull market in fact).
In this new climate, is Bitcoin going to continue repeating the bull/bear cycles it has in the past? Will it continue to deliver NGU? Who knows but my feeling is it's worth a punt that it will, and odds are there will be a new bull market.
I do wonder though if the current bear cycle might prove to be longer and deeper than the last one in 2018.
I do wonder though how many would continue to HODL if it no longer has rip roaring bull markets.
The last sideways was 2.5 years long in the range of 3K to 12K (price mostly around the 8K median), so still a 300% return, but that includes active management or DCAing in.
And there is no telling if AFTER the sideways we would go up or down...