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Banks Falling 23% Since May Foreshadow S&P 500 Slump (Update2)
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By Lynn Thomasson and Rita Nazareth
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Declines of more than 20 percent in regional banks and homebuilders and the failure of transportation companies to erase their annual loss may be signs the rally in the Standard & Poorâs 500 Index is about to fizzle.
Smaller lenders in the gauge have lost 23 percent since climbing to a four-month peak on May 8, while builders have tumbled 25 percent from May 4, when they reached the highest level since October. Concern that mortgage rates, credit losses and foreclosures are increasing spurred retreats in the companies forecast to be among the biggest beneficiaries of $12.8 trillion in government stimulus spending.
Slumps in bank stocks foreshadowed previous declines in the S&P 500 as investors focused on real-estate losses that curbed lending. Regional banksâ 51 percent plunge over 28 days starting Dec. 8 came a month before the S&P 500 began a 28 percent slump to a 12-year low of 676.53. The lendersâ all-time high in February 2007 occurred seven months before the S&P 500âs record.
âIf housing and credit led us into all this, they will have to stabilize,â said Mark Demos, a Minneapolis-based money manager at Fifth Third Asset Management, which oversees $18.7 billion. âThereâs a growing concern that theyâre not out of the woods. Less bad does not equal good.â
Speculation government spending will end the first global recession since World War II helped push up the S&P 500 by 15 percent since March 31, the biggest quarterly increase since 1998. Financial shares gained the most among the S&P 500âs 10 industry groups, rising 35 percent. The index rose 0.7 percent to 925.55 at 10:14 a.m. in New York today.
âGovernment-Induced Rallyâ
Stocks began to decline three weeks ago as economic reports spurred speculation the U.S. economy isnât recovering fast enough to justify the S&P 500âs 36 percent advance since March 9. The Federal Reserve said in its June 10 Beige Book business survey that âstringentâ loan conditions persist even amid signs the recession is moderating.
âThis has been a government-induced rally,â said Jordan Irving, who helps manage more than $110 billion at Delaware Investments in Philadelphia. âWe need to see some real positives coming from internal demand, as opposed to government- related demand, and itâs just not there.â
Borrowing costs climbed in the past month, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reaching a six-month high of 5.59 percent on June 11, according to McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. The rate was 5.42 percent when last reported on June 25. The increase spurred the Mortgage Bankers Association to cut its forecast for mortgage originations in the U.S. by 27 percent on June 22 as fewer people refinance their home.
âChallengingâ
Marshall & Ilsley Corp., Wisconsinâs largest bank, has tumbled 53 percent since May 11, wiping out three-fourths of its rally from March 5. Citigroup Inc. analysts on June 11 predicted loan losses will remain high even after the Milwaukee-based lender raised capital by selling shares.
D.R. Horton Inc., based in Fort Worth, Texas, is down 30 percent since May 4, the steepest decline among rivals in the S&P 500 since then. The largest U.S. homebuilder posted a worse- than-estimated quarterly loss on May 4.
âThe average regional bank out there is going to see increasing net charge-offs and loan loss provisions, and people may say, âGee, do I really want to be in banks?ââ said Barry Knapp, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays Plc in New York. âThat could definitely be a catalyst for a sell-off.â
âDow Theoryâ
Lagging transportation stocks are another bad omen for the rally, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp. and Raymond James Financial Inc., who say gains in airlines, truckers and railroads usually precede economic rebounds.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen 6 percent this year, led by a 60 percent drop in Fort Worth, Texas-based American Airlines parent AMR Corp. The 2009 decline exceeds the 2.7 percent retreat in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 companies that are âleaders in their industries,â according to Dow Jones & Co., a unit of News Corp.
Adherents of a century-old stock-picking strategy called âDow Theoryâ say the averages must exceed their Jan. 6 intraday highs of 3,737.01 and 9,088.06, respectively, to send a buy signal for stocks, Bank of Americaâs Mary Ann Bartels said. The measures are more than 5.9 percent below those levels.
âFor cyclicals in general, itâs hard to imagine that theyâre going to have very good earnings in the second quarter,â said E. William Stone, who oversees $100 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. Because the economy probably shrank for the fourth straight period, âyouâre flying against the wind.â
To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 1, 2009 10:23 EDT
Banks Falling 23% Since May Foreshadow S&P 500 Slump (Update2)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Lynn Thomasson and Rita Nazareth
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Declines of more than 20 percent in regional banks and homebuilders and the failure of transportation companies to erase their annual loss may be signs the rally in the Standard & Poorâs 500 Index is about to fizzle.
Smaller lenders in the gauge have lost 23 percent since climbing to a four-month peak on May 8, while builders have tumbled 25 percent from May 4, when they reached the highest level since October. Concern that mortgage rates, credit losses and foreclosures are increasing spurred retreats in the companies forecast to be among the biggest beneficiaries of $12.8 trillion in government stimulus spending.
Slumps in bank stocks foreshadowed previous declines in the S&P 500 as investors focused on real-estate losses that curbed lending. Regional banksâ 51 percent plunge over 28 days starting Dec. 8 came a month before the S&P 500 began a 28 percent slump to a 12-year low of 676.53. The lendersâ all-time high in February 2007 occurred seven months before the S&P 500âs record.
âIf housing and credit led us into all this, they will have to stabilize,â said Mark Demos, a Minneapolis-based money manager at Fifth Third Asset Management, which oversees $18.7 billion. âThereâs a growing concern that theyâre not out of the woods. Less bad does not equal good.â
Speculation government spending will end the first global recession since World War II helped push up the S&P 500 by 15 percent since March 31, the biggest quarterly increase since 1998. Financial shares gained the most among the S&P 500âs 10 industry groups, rising 35 percent. The index rose 0.7 percent to 925.55 at 10:14 a.m. in New York today.
âGovernment-Induced Rallyâ
Stocks began to decline three weeks ago as economic reports spurred speculation the U.S. economy isnât recovering fast enough to justify the S&P 500âs 36 percent advance since March 9. The Federal Reserve said in its June 10 Beige Book business survey that âstringentâ loan conditions persist even amid signs the recession is moderating.
âThis has been a government-induced rally,â said Jordan Irving, who helps manage more than $110 billion at Delaware Investments in Philadelphia. âWe need to see some real positives coming from internal demand, as opposed to government- related demand, and itâs just not there.â
Borrowing costs climbed in the past month, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage reaching a six-month high of 5.59 percent on June 11, according to McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. The rate was 5.42 percent when last reported on June 25. The increase spurred the Mortgage Bankers Association to cut its forecast for mortgage originations in the U.S. by 27 percent on June 22 as fewer people refinance their home.
âChallengingâ
Marshall & Ilsley Corp., Wisconsinâs largest bank, has tumbled 53 percent since May 11, wiping out three-fourths of its rally from March 5. Citigroup Inc. analysts on June 11 predicted loan losses will remain high even after the Milwaukee-based lender raised capital by selling shares.
D.R. Horton Inc., based in Fort Worth, Texas, is down 30 percent since May 4, the steepest decline among rivals in the S&P 500 since then. The largest U.S. homebuilder posted a worse- than-estimated quarterly loss on May 4.
âThe average regional bank out there is going to see increasing net charge-offs and loan loss provisions, and people may say, âGee, do I really want to be in banks?ââ said Barry Knapp, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays Plc in New York. âThat could definitely be a catalyst for a sell-off.â
âDow Theoryâ
Lagging transportation stocks are another bad omen for the rally, according to strategists at Bank of America Corp. and Raymond James Financial Inc., who say gains in airlines, truckers and railroads usually precede economic rebounds.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen 6 percent this year, led by a 60 percent drop in Fort Worth, Texas-based American Airlines parent AMR Corp. The 2009 decline exceeds the 2.7 percent retreat in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 companies that are âleaders in their industries,â according to Dow Jones & Co., a unit of News Corp.
Adherents of a century-old stock-picking strategy called âDow Theoryâ say the averages must exceed their Jan. 6 intraday highs of 3,737.01 and 9,088.06, respectively, to send a buy signal for stocks, Bank of Americaâs Mary Ann Bartels said. The measures are more than 5.9 percent below those levels.
âFor cyclicals in general, itâs hard to imagine that theyâre going to have very good earnings in the second quarter,â said E. William Stone, who oversees $100 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. Because the economy probably shrank for the fourth straight period, âyouâre flying against the wind.â
To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: July 1, 2009 10:23 EDT
