Ohh okay gotcha. And that's exactly the point of the ACD Method. You are supposed to incorporate it into your own strategy, what works for you. This is what makes it special. I am still learning and a beginner in ACD knowledge, but anyone lurking who has used this method or still is, please chime in and give your thoughts! Cheers
.sigma's 6 Degrees of Freedom (Short Synthetic Vol) 999 Journal
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Ohh okay gotcha. And that's exactly the point of the ACD Method. You are supposed to incorporate it into your own strategy, what works for you. This is what makes it special. I am still learning and a beginner in ACD knowledge, but anyone lurking who has used this method or still is, please chime in and give your thoughts! Cheers
My suggestion would be to focus on the five day rolling number and its derivatives for analysis.
Over the last few months I've also immersed myself in learning more about pivot points and ATR (Avg True Range).
Pivot's always fascinated me because they are one of the very view FORWARD looking technicals, as almost all are backward looking at subject to major hindsight bias. So pivots are worth looking into. Especially when you learn volatility is the most important number to focus on besides spot price. The true range, and the average, and pivot points are all VOLATILITY indicators and can be used to trade volatility from a technical perspective.
Using technical analysis to trade volatility isn't popular, in fact I haven't seen much of anyone trade or discuss trading this way.
But for example, a prudent trader can use the $VIX price as a gauge to determine how much buying power to reduct from his account at any given level. The expansion and contraction of volatility affects all of us nd rightly so. But check this out..
I'm reading some paper (forgot where I saw this, maybe Sinclair's books) but the person discussed looking at $VIX levels when the $SPX is above the 200 day moving avg, and also when the $SPX is BELOW the 200 day. Of course you'd expect the $VIX to be higher when $SPX is below the 200MA because spot is trending down while its below, and reverse for when its above.
One can gauge volatility using spot above/below a certain moving average. Interesting.
Also one can use breadth analysis for an eye in the sky approach. One can measure the divergence in the 50MA/200MA and watch "pair" as it expands and contracts. Or one can look at $NALOW to see how many new 52-week low's occurred for the day in the Nasdaq, or a McClellan Oscillators, the list goes on.
But I remember Mav said a few things that really made sense in my brain. He watched literally ALL markets, and he said this was key to seeing the overall picture, which obviously makes sense. One needs to watch the currencys, commodities, index futures, bonds etc... one asset class leads another etc etc.
He also said one time a trader told him something that clicked in his brain. That by simply using a countries currency can dramatically enhance your yield. For example, lets say the S&P500 returned 6% on the year, you made 6%, but if you owned the S&P in a strong currency your yield would've been stronger. Or even investing in international stock markets,, not just the S&P, such as the German $DAX or $NIKK in Japan. These are all things I never really looked into for the 10 years I've been trading. But it makes sense. Other than that I am not going to trade the $DAX because I have no idea how to, but I can watch it with a keen eye to see how the markets are in Deutsche land.
Pivot's always fascinated me because they are one of the very view FORWARD looking technicals, as almost all are backward looking at subject to major hindsight bias. So pivots are worth looking into. Especially when you learn volatility is the most important number to focus on besides spot price. The true range, and the average, and pivot points are all VOLATILITY indicators and can be used to trade volatility from a technical perspective.
Using technical analysis to trade volatility isn't popular, in fact I haven't seen much of anyone trade or discuss trading this way.
But for example, a prudent trader can use the $VIX price as a gauge to determine how much buying power to reduct from his account at any given level. The expansion and contraction of volatility affects all of us nd rightly so. But check this out..
I'm reading some paper (forgot where I saw this, maybe Sinclair's books) but the person discussed looking at $VIX levels when the $SPX is above the 200 day moving avg, and also when the $SPX is BELOW the 200 day. Of course you'd expect the $VIX to be higher when $SPX is below the 200MA because spot is trending down while its below, and reverse for when its above.
One can gauge volatility using spot above/below a certain moving average. Interesting.
Also one can use breadth analysis for an eye in the sky approach. One can measure the divergence in the 50MA/200MA and watch "pair" as it expands and contracts. Or one can look at $NALOW to see how many new 52-week low's occurred for the day in the Nasdaq, or a McClellan Oscillators, the list goes on.
But I remember Mav said a few things that really made sense in my brain. He watched literally ALL markets, and he said this was key to seeing the overall picture, which obviously makes sense. One needs to watch the currencys, commodities, index futures, bonds etc... one asset class leads another etc etc.
He also said one time a trader told him something that clicked in his brain. That by simply using a countries currency can dramatically enhance your yield. For example, lets say the S&P500 returned 6% on the year, you made 6%, but if you owned the S&P in a strong currency your yield would've been stronger. Or even investing in international stock markets,, not just the S&P, such as the German $DAX or $NIKK in Japan. These are all things I never really looked into for the 10 years I've been trading. But it makes sense. Other than that I am not going to trade the $DAX because I have no idea how to, but I can watch it with a keen eye to see how the markets are in Deutsche land.
What is a 5 day rolling number? And what do you mean by "its derivatives"?
Thanks!
The five day rolling number *line*, sorry. You can find all of the info in the ACD thread.
Oh yes I know about the number line. Its very interesting. Are you saying the 5-day number line works best for you? What type of trading strategy do you have?
I swing trade mostly, I use the number line to establish a long/short bias and time frame.
What do you swing trade? Stocks, futures? Options? All?
By swing, do you mean your duration in these trades are a few weeks?
Options and stocks mostly, duration is usually 1-5 days.
Why not futures? Epecially micro-futures? Futures seem like a better product to swing than stock. But you must have some edge in picking stock direction?