SIgma-D: A Simple Approach to Trading Forex

Sigma-D · Jun 25, 2014

drownpruf said:
What fx derivatives do you trade?

I'll introduce them as I use them as a worked real-world example goes a lot further to underlining their usefulness than a lifeless list.

drownpruf · Jun 25, 2014

Sigma-D said:
I'll introduce them as I use them as a worked real-world example goes a lot further to underlining their usefulness than a lifeless list.

Give us a hint.

Sigma-D · Jun 25, 2014

As per the first posts in this thread I'll only be taking a trade if both the contituent currencies are showing significant divergent (from each other) movement. If I end up in a a eur/usd trade, it'll be because usd is strengthening/weakening more than most of the others and/or eur is strengthening/weakening more than most of the others. In which case I will be in with a basket of currencies against the strongest/weakest.

At this precise point in time eur and chf is starting to show some strength, gbp and aud weakness. Enough for me to give it my attention, but not enough to set up any trades.

Sigma-D · Jun 25, 2014

bought eur/usd 3608 stop 3598.

Sigma-D · Jun 25, 2014

Other than the upper boundary of the sector at 3619 (sector boundaries are always strong potenital s/r), there is an area of potential resistance at 3627: Yesterday's high, today's daily R1 and a technical London-Frankfurt level holding over from yesterday.

So if it breaks 3619 we should be good for 46.

Sigma-D · Jun 25, 2014

On the subject of trading what you see: I'll be just as happy to see this trade go to target as I will to dump it and reverse to the downside targets. I have no attachment to my current positions unless they are a reflection of the current reality.

Sigma-D · Jun 25, 2014

...which is why I also have a limit sell at 3590 with a buy stop at 65.

This will cancel once we break through 3619 or after 16:00 BST - whichever comes first.

Brianharvey · Jun 25, 2014

How long have you been trading, Sigma?
Are you a consistently profitable trader?
cheers

xelite777 · Jun 25, 2014

Sigma-D said:
But what about a 100 pip stop with an 85% chance of 15 pip target? The +ve expectancy crowd would suggest not - but they aren't looking at what the price has to do to move all the way back through that 100 pips of pain compared with the ease with which it'll slip into profit with the target that much closer.

Houston, we have a problem!

85% of the time you will pocket 15 pips = 1275 pips
15% of the time you will lose 100 pips = -1500 pips.

In the long run you will lose 225 pips per hundred trades.

And I am not even adding the spread.

Sigma-D · Jun 25, 2014

xelite777 said:
Houston, we have a problem!

85% of the time you will pocket 15 pips = 1275 pips
15% of the time you will lose 100 pips = -1500 pips.

In the long run you will lose 225 pips per hundred trades.

And I am not even adding the spread.

QED.

The reference to Houston gives it all away. You wind in the numbers like it can be programmed or as if it's written in the stars and once set in motion can never be changed. An 85% chance of hitting your 15 pip target does not equate to a 15% chance of losing your entire 100 pip risk. Blind positive expectancy ignores the existence of the trader making sensible decisions in real time to effectively manage his/her trade.

What is the likelihood with a 15 pip target and 100 pip stop you just sit there and watch the price come all the way back to take your full risk off the table?

All performance metrics are worse than unreliable; they are positively misleading.