Should we look at recent price action behavior to forecast direction?

Larger players are making setups and traps to basically just move smaller players money into their accounts.
Love your post. I know there are big fish playing games, I'm just curious if there is a whale doing much of the heavy lifting (and in this case recently, dropping.)
 
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Cut the crap. You don’t have to thank every post. Just use the like. It’s almost seems like your getting paid to brown-nose. In addition,non of these guys you follow have any money to trade,it’s all Fugazi including the head putz, B1S2.

Thanks, for your astute comment.
 
Hi Concinnity,

I really do understand your explanation. Of course with all things trading, what works
for one may not work with another. I think my past experience with back testing made me susceptible to relying on the past without a constant appraisal of present price movements.

I do much better now just using a rectangle around consolidation and waiting for a breakout.
Appreciate your insight.
Definitely agree with 'trade what you see'
I spent years trying to find an exact holy grail way of trading that would bring me riches and it just didn't work, worst of all, I was manually back testing by scrolling back on the charts with a pen and paper at my side jotting down what could of would of happened if x y and z , what a nightmare and a headache.

To new traders I would say be selective about your entry points but especially your stop loss orders, I think because most educational material be it books or online is generally nearly the same idea, you do end up with bunches of stop loss orders at particular levels which are like pools of liquidity for the huge financial institutions.
When most traders are buying at a support level, the big banks end up buying from those buyers that are now selling to stop their losses so they get it at a discounted rate.
I don't know if that is deliberate or if its just because their positions are so huge the automatic matching system that brings the buyers and sellers together just automatically takes the price down a bit further.
It would definitely be interesting to know how the matching system works though, i mean the exact ins and outs of it right down to the programming language of it. I know it is an international network. in forex I think they call it the interbank communication network.
 
Sorry, didn't realize the chart would post so large.
Fwiw I live in a pretty 'feral' trading analysis bubble, never having looked at or learned TA etc.,
Thank you for lining out the indicator constituents.
Highly notable outcomes derive from feral.
Domesticated assumptions are no guarantee.

That chart I posted up there was expanded, vertical up to 11 on the interesting part. The irfanview link is there in case someone wants a free image software download.
Have you reverted to feral or were you never domesticated in the first place?

feral.jpg
domesticated.jpg
 
Have you reverted to feral or were you never domesticated in the first place?

View attachment 280212View attachment 280213
Great cartoon. Yes and no. For stocks and futures, it's 100% derived from instincts and one thing leading to another over the years [for better or worse]. But my original background was options arbitrage so initial instincts were developed from experiencing market moves and pit atmospheres for a number of years before that.
 
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Yeah for sure, the daily and larger time frames are quite important to look into for profitable traders...not to be missed!
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3rd friday week is usually up in SPY, down in NQ\QQQ so far looks like a bear \down trend for both as of 1:36,CST.........................................................................................I like monthly candles also not that i would want draWdowns like that on all my positions/LOL:D:D
 
Seems like a lot of traders emphasize and search for patterns unfolding like a breakout, ascending triangle, wedge, etc. Do professional traders search for similar price action that may have unfolded recently and look for the outcome?

For example, if I'm trading e-mini dow futures, I happen to notice a downward trend on the 15 min(4 consecutive bear bars + steep downward trend angle), should I look out for something similar/close as possible to what is unfolding now and see how the price action behaved in the past, which could potentially forecast my current price movement?

Basically, In addition to simply identifying a pattern and knowing the probable outcome, I'm assuming we should also check against recent price behavior (past few hours/days) on a similar or "close enough" move?

Any insight would be helpful:
Hello sjain,

The best you can do is stare at the chart and give it your best guess on the trade outcome and hope you are right the next XXX to XXX,XXX thousands trades of your life.
 
Love your assessment about back testing. I backtested hundreds of stocks and learned the hard way it does not predict the market. Just as you stated, "Just" learn to read the market and then forward test it." We go in circles until blown accounts and desperation teaches many that JUST READING WHAT WE SEE. AND TRADING WHAT WE SEE is effective. No amount of back testing would have predicted the parabolic ES move around 5:20am this morning.

Back testing is human natures innate desire to find predictability
in the face of market chaos. It's hard for some to believe a mental
framework and methodology that adapts to uncertainty is an EDGE.

Just my experience, but the only thing back testing did for me
was fill me with naive irrational exuberance, only to be
knocked down again and again.
Well stated mikeriley,
 
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