Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

silvercoin · May 23, 2020

Overnight said:
I can tell you, nobody in the US cares about what Mexico's "president" is doing. All Mexico is is a blight on the USA southern border. And we haven't for decades, because he/she/they/it was/is impotent.

Actually Mexico may see USA as a blight on their northern border being we “took” a vast swath of their land land in years gone by.

1957may10 · May 23, 2020

silvercoin said:
Ok. Then what should Brazil do? What strategy should they use? What should Sweden do? Whatever they are doing presently is NOT working. What should they change?

Keep this in mind:

https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-rises-no-2-coronavirus-223024503.html

Things aren’t as simple as they might seem and solutions are not so easy to come by.

OK, spent my time and got statistic as of today.
US death percentage 5.9% kept social distancing.
Brazil death percentage 5.9 no restrictions.

UK death percentage 14% kept social distancing.
Sweden death percentage 12% no restrictions.

My take, it’s still not clear what strategy country should take.
Each country should chose its own, which works better for it.
So who is pointing to Brazil and Sweden I guess bound by political agenda.
Therefore we need to look statistics and make own calculations.

Whynottrade · May 23, 2020

1957may10 said:
OK, spent my time and got statistic as of today.
US death percentage 5.9% kept social distancing.
Brazil death percentage 5.9 no restrictions.

UK death percentage 14% kept social distancing.
Sweden death percentage 12% no restrictions.

My take, it’s still not clear what strategy country should take.
Each country should chose its own, which works better for it.
So who is pointing to Brazil and Sweden I guess bound by political agenda.
Therefore we need to look statistics and make own calculations.

Someone who compares Sweden to UK without regard to international mobility or population density is either employing Trumpesque level of analytical thinking or politically biased. If you want to compare Sweden, compare it to it's neighbors who have similar culture, geography etc.Norway and Finland together has more population than Sweden. But they have 1/8th the fatalities. There is no evidence of any herd immunity. In short what Sweden did is plain stupid.

1957may10 · May 24, 2020

I spent more time and divided number of cases to each country population.
Norway and Finland got .001.
Sweden got .003. Majority of Sweden deaths came from nursing homes.
That is what they did stupid did not protect elderly.
Other hand the difference .002 I really not sure if for this number Sweden should be completely closed. Also we will see for longer run and Sweden may have better standing.
I do not get why you bound Sweden with Trump and politic. I am not defending any country only want to understand how it goes.
Btw I’m math statistic PhD and still not sure what is better choice.
How do you know?
Brazil get .0016.
US get .005 wow worse then Sweden.
UK get .0038 worse then Sweden.

ElCubano · May 24, 2020

Density density density density. The more dense the bigger the caution should be taken. Sheesh Write it 1000 times on a blackboard.

1957may10 · May 24, 2020

ElCubano said:
Density density density density. The more dense the bigger the caution should be taken. Sheesh Write it 1000 times on a blackboard.

Only one of the factor... and not the most.
The #1 how crowd behaves!

kreskos · May 25, 2020

1957may10 said:
Only one of the factor... and not the most.
The #1 how crowd behaves!

People say what they are shown - this rule has always worked. If you say this to people for a while, they will believe it.

1957may10 · May 25, 2020

1957may10 said:
A lot of Europeans countries already partly open for businesses or looking to open.
We have advantage to watch and analyze. We have protesters against open. We have protesters against to stay closed. From one side stay close impact the economy, to open may or may not cause more aggressive covid19 expansion.
What we should do?

I went to Pocono, PA. Like it’s no covid19 at all.
Playground and swimming pools are closed.
Besides this is no difference. No masks, people meet with friends. People were swimming in the lake.

1957may10 · May 26, 2020

1957may10 said:
A lot of Europeans countries already partly open for businesses or looking to open.
We have advantage to watch and analyze. We have protesters against open. We have protesters against to stay closed. From one side stay close impact the economy, to open may or may not cause more aggressive covid19 expansion.
What we should do?

Guess what, now Novavax started phase one vaccine testing.
OMG, markers are crazy DOW almost +600.

1957may10 · May 26, 2020

1957may10 said:
A lot of Europeans countries already partly open for businesses or looking to open.
We have advantage to watch and analyze. We have protesters against open. We have protesters against to stay closed. From one side stay close impact the economy, to open may or may not cause more aggressive covid19 expansion.
What we should do?

Folks, interesting to know.
According to political independent statistic, US states which opened before May 1st for three weeks has 29% drop exposed covid19 cases. Great news, I saw JH University data and it’s corresponding.