Should the POTUS interfere with FOMC's decision?

[newwurldmn]

I do think the interest expense is about at 1T, but is almost the biggest single line item, if not already the biggest.

Democracy in many ways fails eventually from what I have learned because you can't keep voting for free stuff. The best government is a small government that just protects property rights and lets states or cities handle most other things. But this clearly isn't changing any time soon. Who knows, maybe after the elections, the country will split into red and blue states.

But either way, the destiny is set. The trajectory is so clear, we just don't know if the catalyst is war, or Japan, or who knows what else. But I truly believe the current system cannot be saved. A fiat system is the problem, and when you can no longer tax, or print or inflate, its a messy transition.

both republicans and democrats have contributed to overspending. In fact the only recent president to have a balanced budget was Clinton riding on a very strong economy. Democrats are really bad at marketing though.

The debt load is a conundrum. But I think there will be some solution to it. Countries (like companies) don’t go under without fighting tooth and nail.

I figured 2T in interest because 35T in debt at 5percent. But you might be right.

 

[Coin Flip]

Virtually all American's agree something has to be done about the southern border.

Not the politicians.

The politicians don't want to solve the border issue, they want to keep the problem alive so they can use it to blame the other side.

Why would would a politician allows the border issue to be solved so the other party which is currently in power can claim the credit? That is political suicide.

 

[NoahA]

both republicans and democrats have contributed to overspending. In fact the only recent president to have a balanced budget was Clinton riding on a very strong economy. Democrats are really bad at marketing though.

The debt load is a conundrum. But I think there will be some solution to it. Countries (like companies) don’t go under without fighting tooth and nail.

I figured 2T in interest because 35T in debt at 5percent. But you might be right.

The conundrum is solved by collapse, and severe inflation, and both are very painful. If they drop rates quickly, that crashes the market and sets off inflation again. If they don't, they have to print money just to pay the interest. And all at a time when foreign buyers of debt aren't stepping up. Some people who monitor this due say that some treasury auctions don't go well. No collapse yet of course, but there is no way to turn this ship around. Everyone agrees that we just need to kick the can, but some of the metrics today don't work. Something as simple at Japan raising rates made VIX spike to over 60! So how much faith do you have in the system?

 

[NoahA]

I just remembered this quote I had about democracy.

 

[newwurldmn]

The conundrum is solved by collapse, and severe inflation, and both are very painful. If they drop rates quickly, that crashes the market and sets off inflation again. If they don't, they have to print money just to pay the interest. And all at a time when foreign buyers of debt aren't stepping up. Some people who monitor this due say that some treasury auctions don't go well. No collapse yet of course, but there is no way to turn this ship around. Everyone agrees that we just need to kick the can, but some of the metrics today don't work. Something as simple at Japan raising rates made VIX spike to over 60! So how much faith do you have in the system?

The spike to 60 was about trader positioning. No different than bitcoin dropping to 20k just because other tech stocks were falling.

You might be right about the conundrum. I don't know enough about monetary policy and macro economics to make up an argument.

 

[NoahA]

The spike to 60 was about trader positioning. No different than bitcoin dropping to 20k just because other tech stocks were falling.

You might be right about the conundrum. I don't know enough about monetary policy and macro economics to make up an argument.

And I'm just an armchair economist... Lol... But I have lots of time at work to watch YouTube videos so I will say I'm hundreds of hours into learning all about this. Everything that I've learned points to the whole system being reliant on trust, the biggest market in the world is apparently the euro dollar, and that whole system is based on trust. When counterparties stop trading with each other, then the whole system breaks down.

And this is why Bitcoin is important, no trust is necessary. Once you see the transaction in the blockchain, you know that final settlement has been reached. It's actually very funny to watch videos with major finance guys and they talk about all the risks in the system and here I am understanding that the solution is so simple. Everybody who hates Bitcoin cannot actually offer a better alternative, and secretly love everything that Bitcoin offers, but they are convinced it can't work. It's really funny to see that level of delusion.

 

[newwurldmn]

And I'm just an armchair economist... Lol... But I have lots of time at work to watch YouTube videos so I will say I'm hundreds of hours into learning all about this. Everything that I've learned points to the whole system being reliant on trust, the biggest market in the world is apparently the euro dollar, and that whole system is based on trust. When counterparties stop trading with each other, then the whole system breaks down.

And this is why Bitcoin is important, no trust is necessary. Once you see the transaction in the blockchain, you know that final settlement has been reached. It's actually very funny to watch videos with major finance guys and they talk about all the risks in the system and here I am understanding that the solution is so simple. Everybody who hates Bitcoin cannot actually offer a better alternative, and secretly love everything that Bitcoin offers, but they are convinced it can't work. It's really funny to see that level of delusion.

i think the blockchain will change the world. I think bitcoin won’t.

 

[deaddog]

And this is why Bitcoin is important, no trust is necessary.

When I buy something from someone I don't know I'm quite happy to have the trusted second party involved.
If the item is not as advertised I have some recourse if I paid for it with a credit card or paypal. If I send bitcoin I don't have that recourse. In the case of fraud or a scam I would be out my money.

 

[NoahA]

When I buy something from someone I don't know I'm quite happy to have the trusted second party involved.
If the item is not as advertised I have some recourse if I paid for it with a credit card or paypal. If I send bitcoin I don't have that recourse. In the case of fraud or a scam I would be out my money.

Agreed. And I'm very happy if Bitcoin just serves as the basis for a global financial system very similar to how right now central banks and major corporations settle amongst themselves. I think when you remove the ability of government to spend money they don't have and remove the ability from central banks to print it, then everything else falls into place.

But how could a Fiat currency survive if nobody wants to hold it long-term. It's almost like you can't have one without the other. And I think the future of scaling Bitcoin will actually be custodial so in many ways there will be somebody in between the transaction. And I do agree that there are benefits to this. It's just that we don't want that intermediary to create money out of thin air.

 

[Overnight]

Trump meddled a tiny bit with monetary policy in 2019 IIRC. It was bad. Recall the "No business with China" tweet? I remember that day well. The Dow fluctuated over 1,000 points that day.

We don't need that again.

I think we need to vote for chill.