Quote from NoDoji:
The answer is: The trader should continue to trade every valid setup that presents itself because "there is a random distribution of wins and losses that define an edge".
Anyone who can accurately "predict" which valid setups will result in winning trades is psychic and will soon be the richest person alive.
http://scienceblogs.com/cortex/2008/11/14/its-one-of-the-more/
Go rats!
Hi Donna:
Thank you for making it clear why coin flipping doesnot work for any moment in trading time.
As you make clear, Flipping cions only appleis to defined events in trading.
I person has to first sort through the possible events in markets and give them names. By grouping envents by their characterisitcs, then and only then can one determine which group characterisitcs are viable. Many groups are not viable because of an assortment of reasons. One for this type selection is probability. AS a person forward tests, they can first see the beging of the characterized event and tabulate its probability.
The range of probabilites is very interesting. Almost all inverse probabilites are already eliminated. And some almost sure bets do appear. For example both retraces and reversals come out of the same general characterisitcs and only when you get to finer details they get differentiated.
Any trader who trades high probability groups of characterisitcs will make money.
Many people use additional routines to enhance the probabilities. The universal one (which we saw rejected by Mr Nate, immediately) was the wash trade.
He also had omitted the first stage of the grouping of events and defining their unique characters so he was in a bad mental state that could precipitate feelings that addressed basic survival.
thank you for making it clear when the only enent (not any time) when coin flipping may be invoked. Trading strategies and plans can only stem from the knowledge of how parts of the market work.
Gradually, through massive work, all these events can be boiled down to adjacent unique data slugs that occur very frequently (one at each moment of data change). There are 56.
Most traders compose (unknowingly) "edges" by combining sets of the 56 elements. The sets have a common quality content. The elements that compose a set are always in the same order.
It follows, then that those sets that are least likely to form a given set are the worst performing sets for making money. Taleb never found this out and he never noticed how a finite set (56) elements could be used to form every possible combination. He also never noticed the cause: granulatity of all data.
Slugs of data are not determined by chopping time up regularly. A slug may only be determined one after another when an element if its definition has changes.
In formal education students goe through successive deadenings of their potential use of their minds. Obviously, my points are too long to be able to make a single point.
Donna you made the point of just where coin flipping can be used. And we find it doesn't work on edges that work.