Shorts: get over it. The government won't shut down. It never does.

Quote from Maverick74:

HLF is volatile because over 30% of the float is short. That is true with almost ALL heavily shorted names. It's not manipulation, it's the fact that very few own a large majority of the shares. In this case, they are short.

Regarding the Fed, they have NOT destroyed vol. And your HLF example is a case in point. I could show you 1000 stocks that move like HLF. Plenty of Vol in PCLN, FB, the biotechs, YELP, solar stocks, I could go on and on and on. Plenty of vol in bonds, oil, nat gas, copper, and don't even get me started on the metals. Then we've got currencies as well. Vol is all over the place. Where vol no longer exists is in the big caps and they make up a large part of most indices. So if one myopically focuses on just that part of the market, they would think vol is gone. But the stocks I watch...vol is out of control. Hell oil just dropped 10 pts in the last two weeks. And Rbob? Dude, it's come off 50 cents in a month. That's 20k per contract. I'm sorry, I hear this Fed has killed vol argument all the time and there is ZERO data to back that up. Not that I'm any fan of the Fed. I just want to make sure facts get brought to the forefront.
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Me too. Just trying to figure out what's real and what isn't. Interesting that the first stock you brought up is PCLN. I know a bit about that stock.

Wanna discuss it?

Have you noticed that 98% of the float is held by institutions? Not retail. Not traders. INSTITUTIONS. So every day a tiny amount of the float freely trades. Now, do you think a trader is going to get a fair shake trading something like that? Who's on the other side of your trade? Who's going to determine where the stock goes? The market? Haha. In that stock - they are the market.

Vol in nat gas and oil is completely DEAD compared to even 2000-2006 period. You think nat gas is anywhere near as volatile as it used to be? Why would you use that as an example? It used to move 10% intraday regularly even before 2008.

Regarding HLF, give me a break. The huge moves are created exactly following a tweet or a cnbc appearance. Not just b/c there's large short interest. It's Carl Icahn knowing if I tweet, this stock is going up like crazy. Netflix was dead. Then he went on cnbc and reignited it. Now, it's not all his doing but a 15-25% move within two days of his appearance i would call manipulating a stock's price. Are we arguing semantics? Is all this just coincidental?

I agree with you that there are areas that a trader can go to in order to get some vol and avoid a lot of this bs, but to pretend like there's no manipulation out there is a joke. The trading landscape is filled with mines. Manipulation in now the rule not the exception...

Volatility in currencies? You've been around a while. You think the major crosses have serious vol this year compared to most any other period (ex Japan)?
 
Quote from wilburbear:

The crisis is always averted - after Washington throws a temper tantrum to get attention for herself.

The "crisis" in Washington D.C. is always averted.

Meet me here on this thread next week, when people are saying "What crisis? Was there a crisis?"
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It's just a prelude to the "debt ceiling crisis" around the corner.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

I love it how all the manipulation is from the long side only. How come stocks can't be manipulated down? It's far easier for an algo to manipulate the market lower then higher. And 99% of the retail public doesn't give a flying fuck about volume. And I'm not saying their analysis is more sophisticated then that but your theories are way off base.
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When market goes up, more people benefit and become happy but when the market goes down, less traders benefit from it. Many people can't understand what is shorting a stock. I believe QE is now directing people to put more money into stocks and the gain gives them a feel of being rich so they can go ahead and spend more. Nowadays less people want to put money in CD with a maximum rate of 1.1% for a one year CD. Now regular people's assets are more at risk as it is invested in the stock market. They don't know that they will not be able to tolerate the loss. Another fact is that when the market goes down, most of the regular stock holders cannot take their money out of the market and let it sit and lose. Market is not healthy. market facts are buried under money injected by QE.
 
what I found is that the word "manipulation" is mostly used by Traders who are short and the market is rising against them.
If you think QE and other things is manipulation because its changing the market environment yes, I agree. Its definitely having a strong influence.
But its part of the stock market and has to be part of your decisions. Just like politics, stupid promises of CEO's and other traders.
Its not up to you to rate this or think QE is good or QE is bad. Just trade it. The worst thing to do is to think that all the debt and QE is BAD (you may be right !) and thus, as a kind of revenge or whatever you decide to trade agains the FED.
Or lets take that HLF. Itsn't that a wonderful situation ?
We can simply wait until a giant short squeeze unfolds and then, if Ackmann is head under water and given up the trade, we can short this stock at very nice levels. I think we have a wonderfull market to trade in.
 
Quote from Topsurfi:

what I found is that the word "manipulation" is mostly used by Traders who are short and the market is rising against them.
If you think QE and other things is manipulation because its changing the market environment yes, I agree. Its definitely having a strong influence.
But its part of the stock market and has to be part of your decisions. Just like politics, stupid promises of CEO's and other traders.
Its not up to you to rate this or think QE is good or QE is bad. Just trade it. The worst thing to do is to think that all the debt and QE is BAD (you may be right !) and thus, as a kind of revenge or whatever you decide to trade agains the FED.
Or lets take that HLF. Itsn't that a wonderful situation ?
We can simply wait until a giant short squeeze unfolds and then, if Ackmann is head under water and given up the trade, we can short this stock at very nice levels. I think we have a wonderfull market to trade in.
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Absolutely agree with you 100% and I've said repeatedly being short is dumb right now. Revenge trading is always stupid. The reason that I'm vocal is because I think a mistake a lot of people are making is living in a state of denial and burying their heads in the sand regarding all the shenanigans that are going on.

I'm trying to be objective about what's happening. I'm not saying being long or short is bad, or that manipulation to the upside or downside is better one way or the other. I just want to know the facts and reality of what's happening and make a profit off of it.

The only thing that really irritates me is the lack of volatility - and also, to a lesser extent, volume. These have a direct impact on a trader's bottom line. Unless you're just holding long positions for months or years, this environment sucks.

I was looking through that old thread of greatest trades and remembering a time when a guy could make a fortune on any given day. Not just 2008-2009, but even before then. Now, we never see any kind of serious intraday or even overnight action one way or the other. That sucks. Among other things flying around, that in particular, sucks.
 
Quote from cmdtytrdr:

Absolutely agree with you 100% and I've said repeatedly being short is dumb right now. Revenge trading is always stupid. The reason that I'm vocal is because I think a mistake a lot of people are making is living in a state of denial and burying their heads in the sand regarding all the shenanigans that are going on.

I'm trying to be objective about what's happening. I'm not saying being long or short is bad, or that manipulation to the upside or downside is better one way or the other. I just want to know the facts and reality of what's happening and make a profit off of it.

The only thing that really irritates me is the lack of volatility - and also, to a lesser extent, volume. These have a direct impact on a trader's bottom line. Unless you're just holding long positions for months or years, this environment sucks.

I was looking through that old thread of greatest trades and remembering a time when a guy could make a fortune on any given day. Not just 2008-2009, but even before then. Now, we never see any kind of serious intraday or even overnight action one way or the other. That sucks. Among other things flying around, that in particular, sucks.
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Will all due respect you are disagreeing with traders who are complaining about manipulation and QE and then you go ahead and complain about volatility and volume. There are lots of stocks that are volatile enough. An smart trader changes his strategy based on the market. If you were long on FB, you had doubled your money in a month. If you were long on YHOO, you had made 50% in 3 months. If volatility is down, you can increase your size.
 
Quote from hajimow:

Will all due respect you are disagreeing with traders who are complaining about manipulation and QE and then you go ahead and complain about volatility and volume. There are lots of stocks that are volatile enough. An smart trader changes his strategy based on the market. If you were long on FB, you had doubled your money in a month. If you were long on YHOO, you had made 50% in 3 months. If volatility is down, you can increase your size.
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Straightforward: No trader (day, swing, etc.) except a long term buy and hold trader (which I call an investor) can make any kind of serious alpha when the market has a vix of 14 and no volume. Alpha. Capiche?

I can leverage my balls off and buy XYZ stock and hold it for 3 months and hope and pray the market goes up a lot and if it does I'll make a lot. That's not trading. That's investing or gambling.

If a stock has a wide range intraday or even a short period of time a trader can scalp it, flip it around, go long and short, etc. That's what a good market for a trader is.

I could adjust to the times and also sell 10 million Dec Vix at 14 and probably make a fortune. But that's not alpha. Dig?
 
Quote from cmdtytrdr:

Straightforward: No trader (day, swing, etc.) except a long term buy and hold trader (which I call an investor) can make any kind of serious alpha when the market has a vix of 14 and no volume. Alpha. Capiche?

I can leverage my balls off and buy XYZ stock and hold it for 3 months and hope and pray the market goes up a lot and if it does I'll make a lot. That's not trading. That's investing or gambling.

If a stock has a wide range intraday or even a short period of time a trader can scalp it, flip it around, go long and short, etc. That's what a good market for a trader is.

I could adjust to the times and also sell 10 million Dec Vix at 14 and probably make a fortune. But that's not alpha. Dig?
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I don't know what you're complaining about. Ya, all true. Except CL, ES, yen crosses - all moving great. Nobody cares if daytraders are slugging it out in a low to moderate VIX environment. The broader public generally view us as parasites and gamblers. Yes, central banks suppress volatility. Macro, we're long overdue for a horrendous crash and major depression. Just screen for high volume + high vix instruments, and trade them .
 
Quote from cmdtytrdr:



The only thing that really irritates me is the lack of volatility - and also, to a lesser extent, volume. These have a direct impact on a trader's bottom line. Unless you're just holding long positions for months or years, this environment sucks.

I was looking through that old thread of greatest trades and remembering a time when a guy could make a fortune on any given day. Not just 2008-2009, but even before then. Now, we never see any kind of serious intraday or even overnight action one way or the other. That sucks. Among other things flying around, that in particular, sucks.
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I agree and sympathize. What works in high vix environments often doesn't under mid or low vix conditions. All the trading message boards died off after 2009. It's no coincidence. But there's still money to be had. Just the easy money is gone...for now.
 
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