Shorts: get over it. The government won't shut down. It never does.

[wilburbear]

The crisis is always averted - after Washington throws a temper tantrum to get attention for herself.

The "crisis" in Washington D.C. is always averted.

Meet me here on this thread next week, when people are saying "What crisis? Was there a crisis?"

 

[cmdtytrdr]

More like, Gov't does shut down and the market will drop about .6% tomorrow or maybe even go up.

A week later a meteor will hit Texas and the whole state will be wiped out. The market will drop 1.1% that day and make a full recovery within a week.

It's not that bad events aren't happening - they are. It's just that all the volatility and volume have been sucked out of the market and it's very easy to manipulate it.

(e.g., company revises quarterly guidance down 30% lower on their revs - the day that comes out the stock drops 3%. Within 2 days, the stock has fully recovered back to its high. 2 weeks later the company releases earnings and they're ONLY down 20% yoy - guess what, they beat guidance - stock goes up another 5% to a new all time high.)

GDP #s, mark-to-market, NFP #s, etc...you starting to see a pattern here?

I agree it's difficult/dumb to be short here, but not for the reason you describe.

 

[hajimow]

Quote from cmdtytrdr:

More like, Gov't does shut down and the market will drop about .6% tomorrow or maybe even go up.

A week later a meteor will hit Texas and the whole state will be wiped out. The market will drop 1.1% that day and make a full recovery within a week.

It's not that bad events aren't happening - they are. It's just that all the volatility and volume have been sucked out of the market and it's very easy to manipulate it.

(e.g., company revises quarterly guidance down 30% lower on their revs - the day that comes out the stock drops 3%. Within 2 days, the stock has fully recovered back to its high. 2 weeks later the company releases earnings and they're ONLY down 20% yoy - guess what, they beat guidance - stock goes up another 5% to a new all time high.)

GDP #s, mark-to-market, NFP #s, etc...you starting to see a pattern here?

I agree it's difficult/dumb to be short here, but not for the reason you describe.

Prefect and true observation. But my experience says it won't stay like this for a long time. It is like this because people have nowhere else to invest. Most of the cash is absorbed by the stock market as CD market is dead. Regular investors will pay for this mistake/greed again.

 

[cmdtytrdr]

Quote from hajimow:

Prefect and true observation. But my experience says it won't stay like this for a long time. It is like this because people have nowhere else to invest. Most of the cash is absorbed by the stock market as CD market is dead. Regular investors will pay for this mistake/greed again.

I hope you're right. The market hasn't felt harmonious or "free" in a long time. This is an ok market to swing trade a bit but nobody is going to get rich except the option writers until one day they all go bust. Traders will make a very modest living, scrape by, or starve in the meantime.

It's like being a painter and only being able to paint with one color. Very uninspiring time to be a trader. Tomorrow, the market "should" go up or down 3%+. It's the first time this has happened in 16 years and rates were 7.5% last time it happened, and had a lot of room to drop which they did after - and that led to a rally.

What do longs have to look forward to now? QE4? What's the next line of bullshit gonna be?

Anyway, I'm predicting a quiet day tomorrow. So, the polar opposite of what might normally be expected by a logic and data-driven trader.

 

[Topsurfi]

It's not that bad events aren't happening - they are. It's just that all the volatility and volume have been sucked out of the market and it's very easy to manipulate it.

people talking about "manipulation" don't have the right mindset to become a good trader.

 

[cmdtytrdr]

Quote from Topsurfi:

people talking about "manipulation" don't have the right mindset to become a good trader.

Thanks for the heads-up. I've somehow managed to do alright with it as a career.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from wilburbear:

The crisis is always averted - after Washington throws a temper tantrum to get attention for herself.

The "crisis" in Washington D.C. is always averted.

Meet me here on this thread next week, when people are saying "What crisis? Was there a crisis?"

I agree.

 

[stock777]

the crisis is...........

no one thinks there's a crisis

 

[cmdtytrdr]

Quote from stock777:

the crisis is...........

no one thinks there's a crisis

You. Smart. Trader.

You. Use. Logic.

You. Go. Bust.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from Topsurfi:

people talking about "manipulation" don't have the right mindset to become a good trader.

I agree. Anyone who is trying to trade based on externalities should probably be working at a kiosk at local mall selling exotic salts from the Red Sea.